General Yuzuru Chat

[Yuzurella]

1 hour ago, shanshani said:

I disagree. I don't think Yuzu needs 5 quads to win. Nathan's jumps actually haven't been scored as generously this season, and even if the judges get a little bit more generous as long as they don't go to 2019 GPF levels Yuzu can win over Nathan even if Nathan does 1 more quad, especially if Yuzu upgrades 3A2T to 3A3Lo. See:

 

Assuming everything is landed squeaky clean, let's do an estimate of his score. Unfortunately Yuzu has only had one competition this season and it was nationals, so it's a bit hard to tell how international judges might score him, but if we look at his Nats scores, we see that:

 

Average PCS (both programs)	9.74
Average GOE (jumps, excl. 4A<<)	4.07
Average GOE (spins)	4.20
Average GOE (steps/choreo seq)	4.96

 

This is probably a tad generous compared to international judges, so let's suppose that Yuzu gets 4 GOE per element and 9.7 per component. (Note that he could also have executed the 4T3T combos and the 3A in the SP better, and the 4A<< probably cost him a couple of points of PCS). That would give him the following scores depending on his layout:

 

	3A2T & 3Lo	3A3Lo & 3F
4Lo	330.12	333.72
4A	332.92	337.08

 

Now let's look at Nathan. Nathan has been to two international competitions this season, but Skate America was a bit of a disaster for him so let's exclude that.

 

Looking at his Skate Canada scores:

Average PCS	9.28
Average GOE (jumps, excluding -GOE and one wonky 4Lz)	2.69
Average GOE (spins)	3.17
Average GOE (steps/choreo)	4.22

 

I rather generously excluded a 4Lz that got lower GOE due to axis/landing problems but still had positive GOE, which I didn't do for Yuzu's slightly flawed jumps. Even then, we can see that Nathan's average jump GOE was actually surprisingly reasonable that competition, given how stiff/unaesthetic his jump landings are, their lack of size, etc. I don't know if the judges have finally seen the light, or if they just didn't want him at Skate Canada any more because they want Yuzu and the $$$ his audience brings back, but let's not trust the judges too much. If we look at World's last season, his average jump GOE there was 2.95, so lets round that up to 3. He also got 96 PCS in the FS for some ridiculous reason. 

 

So using 3 for GOEs for jumps and spins and 4 for steps/choreo (why), and 9.5 average components, we get these scores depending on Nathan's layout:

	4Lz 4T3T SP	4Lz 4F3T SP
5 Quad FS	330.09	332.19
6 Quad FS	336.07	338.17

 

So if Yuzu keeps the Nats layout and manages to land the 4A nicely, then he can beat a 5 quad Nathan under these scoring conditions, although the margins are very narrow so in reality it may be a tossup. If he also upgrades to 3A3Lo, then he can a cinch a more definitive win over 5 quad Nathan (honestly upgrading 3A2T to 3A3Lo is actually more valuable than upgrading the 4Lo to 4A, but Yuzu is Yuzu) and is competitive with even 6 quad Nathan (who, mind you, has to land 4Lo). Note that even if Yuzu doesn't manage the 4A, if he switches back to 4Lo or 4Lz but does upgrade 3A2T to 3A3Lo he can still win over 5 quad Nathan.

 

Overall, I feel like my scoring assumptions here were also fairly generous to Nathan--certainly much more generous than he deserves. 9.5 components, seriously? So if the judging is just a bit more reasonable, Yuzu can get a more clear-cut victory. Of course, if judges decide they're blind and want to screw over Yuzu instead then all of this is out the window. But there's not a whole lot Yuzu can do in that case.

 

Overall, I think it's more important that Yuzu skates clean and gets high GOEs on every element, because that's where the points he needs to make up any BV difference with Nathan comes from. If he starts having bad landings because he runs out of stamina due to 5 quads, that ultimately is going to cost him more in GOE and PCS than the extra quad helps.

 

I also think that there's a huge psychological component to judging that can't be captured by mathematical analysis, and that's actually the chief edge the 4A provides. The amount of points you're technically supposed to gain from landing 4A is ridiculously small compared to the jump's difficulty, but judges judge based on feelings, and landing 4A is really, really impressive. I think the impressiveness of achievements is part of why judges inflate Nathan's PCS so much (though obviously not the only reason)--landing 5 quads is impressive, and that feeling of being impressed is actually one of the biggest contributing factors to how they score PCS. So therefore, it's likely that landing 4A will be more valuable point-wise than it appears to be just based on the rulebook.

 

Edit: Lol in the time it took me to write this essay there have been like 2 new pages of posts. 

 

Thank you very much for your analysis. You made some really good points.

 

I also think that Yuzu doesn't need 5 quads to win. I believe that even if he keeps his present SP and FP layout and skates them both clean, it might very well be enough.

 

It's true that Nathan has been overscored on a ridiculous level for the past years. But let's keep in mind that the times when he was the most overscored, he was the one who delivered clean programs and a clean FP with 5 quads when others made mistakes. When Yuzu lost to him in Worlds 2019 and GPF 2019, Yuzu made mistakes in both SPs, while Nathan was clean. In a fair world, Yuzu should have still won, of course, due to the sheer difference in quality. But Yuzu's mistakes made it easy for the judges to underscore him and overscore Nathan.

 

I also agree on the psychological component of the 4A. Apart from his nationality, the main reason why judges have been so overly generous to Nathan was his ability to deliver clean 2-quad SPs and clean 5-quad FPs on a regular basis, something that only he could do. His consistency also made it easy for the judges to shower him with PCS candies on top of GOE candies. Again, it was certainly inappropriate and not how PCS scores are supposed to work. But let's face it, in the real world, PCS are based on a skater's flag and on how many quads they can land cleanly.

 

Now that Yuzu has a 4A in his arsenal, he is the innovator, the guy with the unique technical abilities, the one who has the highest difficulty. I think that's why Yuzu said something along the lines of that he needs the 4A to win the Olympics. I think he more than anyone understands the psychological advantage that element gives him, an advantage that goes far beyond the measly points difference.

 

Another reason why the 4A is such an important weapon is that it puts immense pressure on Yuzu's competitors. They are now the chasers again, the ones who have to keep up.

 

Yuzu has said time after time that his priority is the 4A. It's possible that he decided to go and give it his all in the coming Olympics because the 4A finally started to take shape and he's very close to landing it perfectly. This is what gives him a very competitive edge over everyone else. And the 4A being almost ready might have been a decisive factor in Yuzu's decision to commit to the Olympics.

 

Another point we should keep in mind is that Nathan is still human. And as we could see this season, he's far from infallible. Just because he managed to pull off one difficult program after another in the past doesn't mean he can keep on doing it indefinitely. Also, the added pressure of the Olympics should not be underestimated.

 

I believe that Yuzu wouldn't have committed to the Olympics if he was uncertain of whether he can win with what he has. He has nothing to prove to anyone anymore. This shows me that he only decided to go to the Olympics because he believes that he can win. Therefore, we should trust him and believe that he can win with what he has.

[cereus]

1 hour ago, shanshani said:

Anyway, I suspect the reason Yuzu says that he needs 4A to win, other than him being a dramatic anime protagonist, is that he also thinks that the psychological impact of 4A on the judges is worth more than the 4A looks to be worth on paper.

 

I think it's possible that another reason Yuzu says he needs the 4A to win is to harness his drive to win in service of his pursuit of the 4A. He knows his competitive drive and saying he needs it to win may help him keep himself motivated.

[shanshani]

Just now, cereus said:

 

I think it's possible that another Yuzu says he needs the 4A to win is to harness his drive to win in service of his pursuit of the 4A. He knows his competitive drive and saying he needs it to win may help him keep himself motivated.

I think that's true too. He's using it to put pressure on himself, which helps him achieve his goals. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if that was the main point of saying it. But I don't think the comment is purely a way of psyching himself up. It does have a basis in reality.

 

Like I don't think it's literally true. There are scenarios where he can win without 4A, and of course he knows this too. However, they involve either Nathan messing up or placing an uncomfortable amount of trust in the judges, both of which make the result out of his control. 4A is the only way that he can proactively cinch his own victory without relying on outside factors (within reason--obviously he still has to trust that the judges won't completely screw with him). 

 

13 minutes ago, Yuzurella said:

 

Thank you very much for your analysis. You made some really good points.

 

I also think that Yuzu doesn't need 5 quads to win. I believe that even if he keeps his present SP and FP layout and skates them both clean, it might very well be enough.

 

It's true that Nathan has been overscored on a ridiculous level for the past years. But keep in mind that the times when he was the most overscored, he was the one who delivered clean programs and a clean FP with 5 quads when others made mistakes. When Yuzu lost to him in World 2019 and GPF 2019, Yuzu made mistakes in both SPs, while Nathan was clean. In a fair world, Yuzu should have still won, of course, due to the sheer difference in quality. But Yuzu's mistakes made it easy for the judges to underscore him and overscore Nathan.

 

I also agree with you on the psychological component of the 4A. Apart from his nationality, the main reason why judges have been so overly generous to Nathan was his ability to deliver clean 2-quad SPs and clean 5-quad FPs on a regular basis, something that only he could do. His consistency also made it easy for the judges to shower him with PCS candies on top of GOE candies. Again, it was certainly inappropriate and not how PCS scores are supposed to work. But let's face it, in the real world, PCS are based on a skater's flag and on how many quads they can land cleanly.

 

Now that Yuzu has a 4A in his arsenal, he is the innovator, the guy with the unique technical abilities, the one who has the highest difficulty. I think that's why Yuzu said something along the lines of that he needs the 4A to win the Olympics. I think he more than anyone understands the psychological advantage that element gives him, an advantage that goes far beyond the measly points difference.

 

Another reason why the 4A is such an important weapon is that it puts immense pressure on Yuzu's competitors. They are now the chasers again, the ones who have to keep up.

 

Yuzu has said time after time that his priority is the 4A. It's possible that he decided to go and give it his all in the coming Olympics because the 4A finally started to take shape and he's very close to landing it perfectly. This is what gives him a very competitive edge over everyone else. And the 4A being almost ready might have been a decisive factor in Yuzu's decision to commit to the Olympics.

 

Another point we should keep in mind is that Nathan is still human. And as we could see this season, he's far from infallible. Just because he managed to pull off one difficult program after another in the past doesn't mean he can keep on doing it indefinitely. Also, the added pressure of the Olympics should not be underestimated.

 

I believe that Yuzu wouldn't have committed to the Olympics if he was uncertain of whether he can win with what he has. He has nothing to prove to anyone anymore. This shows me that he only decided to go to the Olympics because he believes that he can win. Therefore, we should trust him and believe that he can win with what he has.

Yeah, I think this is exactly right. The 4A isn't really all that much better than the 4Lz in terms of BV, but it is a powerful weapon for shaping the narrative. By emphasizing the 4A as his tool for winning Olys, what else does Yuzu accomplish? Well, suddenly all of the news coverage is going to be about "will Yuzu land 4A," "2-time Olympic champion considered by many to be the GOAT promises to land the crazy jump no one has ever successfully done," and the expectation that will be created is that if he lands it, he'll win. That itself is going to put pressure on the judges not to deny him the win if he lands it. Much of the scoring has been so transparently incompetent and corrupt that basically no one denies it at this point, so if they still refuse to give it to him they risk triggering another scoring scandal, especially since there is absolutely no credible argument anyone could make about Nathan being the more artistic skater. 

 

That being said, the judges may ignore public opinion. Still, it does mean that Yuzu is effectively setting up the ISU to experience quite a bit of backlash if he lands 4A and they don't give him gold, especially since he will be the biggest story of the Olympics. (For a lot of different reasons--obviously his popularity, plus the 4A story is inherently compelling, but there are also some less obvious ones like the fact that he is a Japanese athlete who is beloved in China, which is noteworthy and symbolically significant given the history of CN-JP relations.) Not sure he's really thinking about it that way, but it's a funny thought. Maybe Yuzu miming shaking off the blood from his sword at the end of Tenchi has a few more dimensions to it than it initially appears. 

 

Also, with the 4A, he basically turns Nathan's 5/6 quads into yesterday's story. The "will Yuzu land 4A" narrative honestly kinda shuts Nathan out of the limelight entirely lol. 

 

[yuzuangel]

3 hours ago, shanshani said:

I don't know if the judges have finally seen the light, or if they just didn't want him at Skate Canada any more because they want Yuzu and the $$$ his audience brings back, but let's not trust the judges too much

A slight aside: does anyone feel like judges become slightly more reasonable during olympic seasons (or, to put it differently, they're less willing to score one single skater to the moon)...because they want to create a bit more tension/drama?

 

This doesn't seem to be happening with Valieva, maybe because no one has been touching her in terms of quads + consistency. Last time they really drummed up Alina's score to match Zhenya's and didn't crazily overscore Zhenya (so much so that Alina actually won)...despite giving Zhenya a 160+ PB the season before. And of course the same happened with Patrick and Yuzu in 2014. If you skate well at the Olys you could get a huge personal best even if you've never had a record of it (a la Sotnikova) whereas if you're used to get extremely overscored, suddenly judges can...just score you fairly.

 

Hmm, just throwing that out there....

[makebelieveup]

The fact that the 4A isn't 15 in bv still pisses me off. It seems to be double in difficulty compared to a triple axel. Even if it's downgraded it should have been given 10 BV instead of 8. but again if it's that much higher in bv, i bet we'd be seeing people cheating this jump just as much as a 4lz

6 minutes ago, yuzuangel said:

A slight aside: does anyone feel like judges become slightly more reasonable during olympic seasons (or, to put it differently, they're less willing to score one single skater to the moon)...because they want to create a bit more tension/drama?

 

This doesn't seem to be happening with Valieva, maybe because no one has been touching her in terms of quads + consistency. Last time they really drummed up Alina's score to match Zhenya's and didn't crazily overscore Zhenya (so much so that Alina actually won)...despite giving Zhenya a 160+ PB the season before. And of course the same happened with Patrick and Yuzu in 2014. If you skate well at the Olys you could get a huge personal best even if you've never had a record of it (a la Sotnikova) whereas if you're used to get extremely overscored, suddenly judges can...just score you fairly.

 

Hmm, just throwing that out there....

makes me sad that scoring is all about the agenda...nothing more, nothing less

 

 

 

Spoiler

anyone think the us diplomatic boycott would impact scoring at all? just curious

 

[yuzuangel]

5 hours ago, makebelieveup said:

Someone on twitter pointed out that Yuzu shouldnt have given judges an escape plan by saying he has to land a 4a to win. I actually agree with this. Yuzu shouldnt be giving himself this pressure for no reason. altho i doubt judges care to go read his interviews. I find that this more so would apply to anti fans. they would def use this against him. but oh well haters gonna hate. and life works in mysterious way for Yuzu so I guess I should just trust him that he can do it. I admit I thought he would pop or fall on the 4a underrotated but he stayed on his feet.

 

but yeah I find it so amusing how japanese interviewers (and im sure they had better intentions) were so quick to make Yuzu point out he had an underrotated and 2 foot 4a landing after his practice. Like come on, do you really have to ask him to confirm this? Why are you always making him confirm himself so judges would have reasons to call them? not that i want judges to be corrupted but the point is the culture of self criticsm is beyond me. It reminds me of one of the interviews post world championship 2019 where they showed him his protocol against nathan's. 

 

re: oympic -- Personally, I wouldnt rely on Nathan to bomb anything or not to get candies. He did only lose once over the past 4 seasons. But I also do not think adding quads would help Yuzu either considering his past few seasons. I think the best strategy for Yuzu is a cross between doing what he really wants to do the most (incorporating 4a) and what he does best (focus on the qualitity and jumping the jumps he can realistically do without killing his stamina).

 

We have to still remember as solid as his form seemed to be at nationals, he is prone to injury any moment. To add quad lutz or quad loop is not realistic given he only has 1 month left to land his 4a. 

 

I think even a month isnt enough to land a ratified 4a. (tbh i wish he ditches it and goes for it at worlds but Yuzu is Yuzu)

 

4a (2 ft and ur) is the most realistic we can hope atm 

4s stable jump so no reason to ditch it

3a3loop (i think this is the most reasonable new jump to add since it doesnt disrupt the flow. he just have to take his time)

3lutz\3flip - cant imagine this would be harder than a 4a so why not add them of this is the best bet to up the bv

4t eu 3 sal or 3 flip (if he goes for 3 lz then he has another opportunity here to include 3flip)

4t3t

3a (or switch this with 3a3loop for 2nd half bonus)

 

At this point I think Ive already accepted the possibility that even if both skate clean, Yuzu with this layout will not win if Nathan skates clean with 5 or 6 quads. But I hope a part of Yuzu will still feel the victory of landing a ratified 4a at the olympic. And I think fandom will know who is the winner. 

 

 

hi just wanted to say i 100% agree with everything you said here very eloquently

and that is really my ideal layout (no 4Lo or 4Lz pls that's too much and also not good for my heart)

4A

4S

3A3Lo

3Lz

4T-eu-3F

4T-3T

3A

 

realistically he will do the 4T-eu-3S for stability (he's just so used to this combo it's like his YOLO combo now) which is fine but I would be over the moon to see the 3A3Lo bc it really does give great returns for relatively little risk compared to a quad.

[yuzuangel]

9 minutes ago, makebelieveup said:

Spoiler

anyone think the us diplomatic boycott would impact scoring at all? just curious

 

it's curious. but japan is also boycotting. not that jpn has anywhere near the political influence, so it might hurt them less if it matters at all

[makebelieveup]

9 minutes ago, yuzuangel said:

hi just wanted to say i 100% agree with everything you said here very eloquently

and that is really my ideal layout (no 4Lo or 4Lz pls that's too much and also not good for my heart)

4A

4S

3A3Lo

3Lz

4T-eu-3F

4T-3T

3A

 

realistically he will do the 4T-eu-3S for stability (he's just so used to this combo it's like his YOLO combo now) which is fine but I would be over the moon to see the 3A3Lo bc it really does give great returns for relatively little risk compared to a quad.

 

yeah and didn't he want the wind feeling? I think doing 3a3loop and then 3turn into a 3flip would achieve the same effect if not better!

4 minutes ago, yuzuangel said:

it's curious. but japan is also boycotting. not that jpn has anywhere near the political influence, so it might hurt them less if it matters at all

Spoiler

ahhh hmm well I guess that wouldn't matter then. I just read a few headlines about china retaliating by saying the US would be paying for it so was wondering if that means they would meddle with the scores. 

 

[YuzuBoy]

13 minutes ago, makebelieveup said:

anyone think the us diplomatic boycott would impact scoring at all? just curious

Many American, Australian and European tennis players but also, WTA and ATP made statements about the situation you are referring to, and they suspended all the tennis events in China, even IOC apparently was involved.

[Lanvin]

I will say that recent chatter does have people entertaining the idea that the 4A could put Yuzu on top but only if he lands it? and also thinking that Yuzu might be crazy because it opens the door more for Nathan if he doesn't land it (but like it was open beforehand either tbh)....I don't see Nathan doing the 6 quad layout...probably might not be a good idea. I think he may be struggling more than we think if he's trying to go back to old programs. Trying to find something that sticks. I honestly think something more than just struggling tho bc SA was the first comp of the season and he seemed nervous then.......oh snap I forgot it may have something to do with that hip injury that we didn't really hear much of.....

[YuzuBoy]

The problem with Nathan is that he is very talented kid but all the overscoring and overhyping him *cough cough* Jonny Weir and Tara Lipinski *cough cough* take away from his skills. And instead of making him a complete skater, his coaches created a winning jumping machine and figure skating should not be only about jumping

[Guest turquoiseblue]

Here is a heartwarming article about Yuzu's Chinese fans 

[NEWS]
Global Times article 

‘We’ll be there for him’ – Japanese figure skater Yuzuru Hanyu qualifies for Beijing 2022 Winter Games
Dec 27, 2021

 

Quote

The news about the two-time Olympic champion's win quickly became a hot topic on China's Twitter-like Sina Weibo as many "Youzi," the nickname for his Chinese fans, posted messages of congratulations, and shared their excitement to see Hanyu return. 

 

"He missed so many games because of the injury, but I think the Beijing Winter Olympics is going to be his lucky land. He has all our love here," posted a netizen on Sina Weibo. 

 

Along with Japan's table tennis "cutie" Ai Fukuhara, Hanyu has continued to be much loved by fans in China. His official "info station" on Sina Weibo has more than 1.5 million followers. 

 

Back in October, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying replied to a "request" by Hanyu's Japanese fans on Twitter, commenting "We got it!" to address the fans' wish for Chinese audiences to cheer on Hanyu during the Beijing Winter Olympic Games as they would be unable to attend the event due to COVID-19 restrictions.

 

After learning that Hanyu would be heading to the Beijing Games, many netizens on Sina Weibo also posted "We got it!" to show their support for the 27-year-old Japanese star. 

 

"He is so loved by people from all around the world because he is always so 'sunny' and keeps trying to be better even though he is so brilliant already," Lindi, a "Youzi" in Chengdu, Sichuan Province, told the Global Times. 

 

The two-time Olympic Championship figure skater indeed has been on a non-stop journey to be the best. At the Sunday event, the star attempted a quadruple axel, the hardest move to many skaters including Hanyu himself, in competition for the first time. 

 

"To challenge yourself, this shows the spirit of the Olympics. It doesn't matter who he is or where he comes from, we'll be there for him," added Lindi.

 

[Guest Mary_kyo]

Nathan is simply a good jumper (ignoring his stiff landings and “straight” knees tho) whose consistency depends on long telegraphing, lack of transitions and steps before them. In anything else he is very average (sorry but even juniorish Yuma is way better than him in skating skills). I was reading about him on twitter the other day. He actually tried to improve in 2016 by changing his coach but things got worse and his consistency got screwed so he returned back to Raf and chose the path of being a simple consistent jumper rather than anything else. Well, he is given scores and praises for other things he never does on the ice so he never felt the need to improve anymore.

[Guest Mary_kyo]

58 minutes ago, Lanvin said:

I will say that recent chatter does have people entertaining the idea that the 4A could put Yuzu on top but only if he lands it? and also thinking that Yuzu might be crazy because it opens the door more for Nathan if he doesn't land it (but like it was open beforehand either tbh)....

Well well…. It seems 4A really created a buzz then. Interesting.

 

 I read Dick Button landed 2A for the first time in Olympics in 1948 after only landing it once in the practice a day before, so I don’t consider the idea of 4A in Beijing completely crazy anymore. I suppose some madlads are built different.

Yuzu is also full of surprises. Before nationals, I said here that I don’t expect squeaky clean skates but he literally did skate cleanly (4A<< doesn’t count). I wasn’t expecting him to win easily right after an injury but again he did win by a large margin. I also predicted a fall on his first 4A but he stood on his feet. He is a crazily talented madlad so I give up thinking about him rationally as a human. *waving white flag*

[Anni]

Mark Kondratiuk about Yuzu's 4A

[NEWS]