Guess Everyone's layouts

[Old Cat Lady]

2 hours ago, rockstaryuzu said:

Wow, Boyang's aiming sky-high with that BV. 

 

... and that's just the Helsinki layout.  Someone said that he's planning on doing 5 quads/2 axels FS this year.  He fell all over the place when he tried it at that Chinese competition so not sure if he abandoned that plan because it wasn't working out or if he's trying to work up to it.

 

eta: oops.  Just realized that I gave Boyang an extra triple toe.  His actual BV is 47.6+90.79 = 138.39

[rockstaryuzu]

2 hours ago, Old Cat Lady said:

His actual BV is 47.6+90.79 = 138.39

That makes a bit more sense. But still very ambitious. 

[Old Cat Lady]

This is my first year being a Fanyu from the beginning of the season (was only a casual fan for the last few Olympic cycles) and I already feel heartbroken at the changes I've seen so far.  It really was love at first sight, even with all the mistakes, at Autumn Classic.  But then I remind myself, he probably did similar things with Semei and Chopin and the end result of those programs is what pulled me back into super fandom.   I look back at the old versions of Chopin and, because the first time I saw it, he's improved so much in his presentation, the version I fell in love with seems like the best but I imagine you guys must have been stressed seeing your beloved baby constantly being messed with.

 

Part of me wonders if he's going to just say "f'k it!" and have that pianist who did Haru yo Koi record a whole new version of Otonal that suits his competition needs.

 

I'm sure he's done all these calculations before we did, but can you imagine if he's lurking on here and he's using Shanshani's protocol to figure out the best scores too 

 

As soon as I realized that he can only break even with scores if he upgrades the solo loop to lutz, I was sure that he was either going to drop the sequence or add the lutz.  That makes me nervous though because I think his lutz is his least consistent triple so he really is taking unnecessary risks to skate his dream layout.

[TallyT]

6 hours ago, Old Cat Lady said:

 he really is taking unnecessary risks to skate his dream layout.

 

He wouldn't be Yuzu if he didn't.... after all, even when he 'played it safe' in the Olympics because of his ankle, his idea of what the words 'play it safe' seemed to have a meaning completely differently from how the rest of the world understands them

[Old Cat Lady]

Just an update now that we're half way through.  I got average GOE's for the big 4 based off of clean elements (not necessarily perfect, but no major mistakes based on how they usually land them).  If they haven't yet landed it cleanly, I just plugged in a 3.  I used PCS from programs with 1 or less errors in the short and no fall/3 or fewer smaller errors from the long.  Obviously the usual common sense caveats... different judging panels, level of competition, etc. all effect scores ... blah, blah, blah

 

Didn't do Jin since we only have 1 event for him and he splatted his way through.  

 

I think Uno is fairly set in his layout. Looks like Kolyada is testing which quads he'll use but the difference will be minimal.  I'm guessing Nathan will still be making major adjustments to his - I can't imagine that he'd be happy with hoping that Hanyu and Uno make mistakes. And we all know that guessing what Yuzu will do is a crap shoot.

 

Uno

SP: 4f, 4t/3t, 3a* = BV 47.1

LP: 4s, 4f, 4t, 4t/2t, 3a*, 3a/1e/3f*, 3s/3t* = BV 91.43

Total BV = 138.53

 

Projected Scores

SP: 106.89

LP: 207.59

Total: 314.48

 

one thing to note is that his 4s has been called UR at every event but Lombardia, where, I think, he stepped out of it.  The score is based on a full 4s w/3 goe

 

Kolyada

SP:  4t/3t, 3lz, 3a* = BV 42.2

LP: 4s, 4t/3t, 3a/2t, 3a, 3lo*, 3l/1e/3s*, 3lz*

Total BV: 122.05

 

Projected Scores

SP: 99.54

LP: 191.28

Total: 290.83

 

Chen

SP:  3a, 4f, 3lz/3t* = BV 43.11

LP: 3lo, 4lz, 3f/3t, 3a, 4t/3t*, 4t/2t/2lo*, 3lz* = BV 86.31

Total BV: 129.42

 

Projected Scores

SP: 99.38

LP: 193.06

Total: 292.45

 

PCS is an average of SkAm scores.

 

Hanyu

SP: 4s, 3a, 4t/3t* = BV 46.37 

LP: 4lo, 4s, 3lo, 4t, 4t/3a seq*, 3f/3t*, 3a/1e/3s* = BV 91.43

Total BV: 137.8

 

Projected Scores

SP: 105.49

LP: 208.55

Total: 314.03

 

Obvious things to note is that the "projected" sp score is lower than his actual highest SP score even w/an iffy combo.  I took the ave GOE of his 4lo from AC (1.71) but not Helsinki and I adjusted the GOE on the sequence to +3 since he stepped out of it (I'm actually surprised that it got ratified - I don't understand what the parameters for ratifying elements are these days).  I averaged PCS from AC sp, Helsinki SP, and Helsinki LP.  None of these programs were perfectly clean but I figure it's the best data we have right now.

 

[rockstaryuzu]

1 hour ago, Old Cat Lady said:

Just an update now that we're half way through.  I got average GOE's for the big 4 based off of clean elements (not necessarily perfect, but no major mistakes based on how they usually land them).  If they haven't yet landed it cleanly, I just plugged in a 3.  I used PCS from programs with 1 or less errors in the short and no fall/3 or fewer smaller errors from the long.  Obviously the usual common sense caveats... different judging panels, level of competition, etc. all effect scores ... blah, blah, blah

 

Didn't do Jin since we only have 1 event for him and he splatted his way through.  

 

I think Uno is fairly set in his layout. Looks like Kolyada is testing which quads he'll use but the difference will be minimal.  I'm guessing Nathan will still be making major adjustments to his - I can't imagine that he'd be happy with hoping that Hanyu and Uno make mistakes. And we all know that guessing what Yuzu will do is a crap shoot.

 

Uno

SP: 4f, 4t/3t, 3a* = BV 47.1

LP: 4s, 4f, 4t, 4t/2t, 3a*, 3a/1e/3f*, 3s/3t* = BV 91.43

Total BV = 138.53

 

Projected Scores

SP: 106.89

LP: 207.59

Total: 314.48

 

one thing to note is that his 4s has been called UR at every event but Lombardia, where, I think, he stepped out of it.  The score is based on a full 4s w/3 goe

 

Kolyada

SP:  4t/3t, 3lz, 3a* = BV 42.2

LP: 4s, 4t/3t, 3a/2t, 3a, 3lo*, 3l/1e/3s*, 3lz*

Total BV: 122.05

 

Projected Scores

SP: 99.54

LP: 191.28

Total: 290.83

 

Chen

SP:  3a, 4f, 3lz/3t* = BV 43.11

LP: 3lo, 4lz, 3f/3t, 3a, 4t/3t*, 4t/2t/2lo*, 3lz* = BV 86.31

Total BV: 129.42

 

Projected Scores

SP: 99.38

LP: 193.06

Total: 292.45

 

PCS is an average of SkAm scores.

 

Hanyu

SP: 4s, 3a, 4t/3t* = BV 46.37 

LP: 4lo, 4s, 3lo, 4t, 4t/3a seq*, 3f/3t*, 3a/1e/3s* = BV 91.43

Total BV: 137.8

 

Projected Scores

SP: 105.49

LP: 208.55

Total: 314.03

 

Obvious things to note is that the "projected" sp score is lower than his actual highest SP score even w/an iffy combo.  I took the ave GOE of his 4lo from AC (1.71) but not Helsinki and I adjusted the GOE on the sequence to +3 since he stepped out of it (I'm actually surprised that it got ratified - I don't understand what the parameters for ratifying elements are these days).  I averaged PCS from AC sp, Helsinki SP, and Helsinki LP.  None of these programs were perfectly clean but I figure it's the best data we have right now.

 

So according to that, Shoma wins by the skin of his teeth, if he skates clean. 

 

IMO, Yuzu's more likely to skate clean than Shoma is.

[shanshani]

If they both skate clean, it'll come down to the particular scores on the elements on the day. Imo, Yuzu should still be winning on the average quality of the elements, but judges have really gone crazy with Shoma's GOE scores.

 

I wouldn't take early scores to be too indicative though. Yuzu's jumps have been pretty meh so far this season on average (he's only done a senior B and a GP so far, after all--we should be grateful he's landing them ) and he hasn't skated against Shoma yet--so who knows how Shoma's GOE holds up when he has actual competition. 

[Old Cat Lady]

I agree. I don't think these early scores are indicative of much as far as Yuzu is concerned.  He's notorious for being a slow starter. 

 

I just like to do these things because it annoys me when people pull suppositions out the ass based on nothing.  

 

Shoma and Kolyada seemed to be the closest to their best level at the early part of the season.  Yuzu and Boyang the farthest from their best level.  Even if he doesn't necessarily make a mistake on the element, the quality of the element increases as the season goes on whereas Nathan, Kolyada, and Shoma did their elements at about their normal to best quality level.  Yuzu's pcs will also go up when the quality of his elements will increase.

 

Then we also have to take into account that Nathan and Shoma both had events in their home country while Yuzu didn't.

 

I think once everyone has at least 2 events I'll drop all the scores from the B competitions since a lot of them are from lower level judges and both judges and skaters were shaking rust and adjusting to the new system.

[shanshani]

I project around 111 SP and 219 FS for a clean skate from Yuzu, assuming he can hit an average of +4 GOE per element and 9.75 per PCS category. Which, based on the GOE for his 4Ss, should be totally doable? And if he can manage a good number of +5s, especially on the big jumps, he should be able to exceed that.

For Shoma, projecting an average of +3.5 GOE per element and 9.5 per PC category should score 109 in the SP and 214 in the FS. So basically, if Yuzu can keep a 0.5 GOE and 0.25 PCS lead raw per element/category, it should be more than enough to beat Shoma. It does depend a little too much on the judges for my liking, but on the other hand Yuzu doesn't have to be thaaat far ahead. Even if you bump up Shoma's average GOE to 3.75, Yuzu's still ahead. Their BV is veryyyy close right now so it doesn't take that much to edge him out, and I don't think Shoma is planning any upgrades? Unlike Nathan, who probably is.

[Old Cat Lady]

This is what I get when I plug in the numbers that I think judges will give them (not what I think they deserve but what I think they will get) and their PCS from their cleanest programs from 2017 to present.

 

I used what "I think" Chen was attempting at JPN Open for his free skate and added a quad to his SP because I don't believe that he's going to stick to only 4 quads in a competition. I don't think Chen's ever skated a completely clean free skate so I just used 2018 worlds and 2018 SkAm for his PCS, which I think are his 2 highest scoring PCS scores.  9.14 PCS, around 2.5 for combos,  3 for solo jumps, 2.5-3 for other elements, except for FS choreo seq which inexplicably was judged at 4

SP: 3a, 4f, 4lz/3t* = 108.89

LP: 3lo, 4lz, 4f/3t, 3a, 4t/3t*, 4t/2t/2lo*, 4s = 211.38

Total: 320.27

 

ETA: if you change Chen's 3lo to 4 lo, I get 218.66 FS, 327.55 Total score.  I have doubts that he can manage 5 quad FS considering 3/4 of quads at SkAm were iffy w/the watered down layouts and multiple quads were iffy at 2018 worlds/Olympics

 

Uno - 9.21 PCS, 4.5 for spins, 4 for steps and choreo seq, 4 for axel, 3.5 for other jumps

SP: 4f, 4t/3t, 3a* = 109.45

LP: 4s, 4f, 4t, 4t/2t, 3a*, 3a/1e/3f*, 3s/3t* = 211.98

Total: 321.43

 

Hanyu - 9.68 PCS, 3.5-4 for triples and combos, 4.5 for solo quads, 3.5 for spins and choreo seq, 4 for step sequence

SP: 4s, 3a, 4t/3t* = 111.49

LP: 4lo, 4s, 3lo, 4t, 4t/3a seq*, 3f/3t*, 3a/1e/3s*= 218.58

Total: 330.07

[rockstaryuzu]

4 minutes ago, Old Cat Lady said:

I don't think Chen's ever skated a completely clean free skate

That's a bit surprising, tbh. And if he doesn't fix it this season, then under the new scoring, it's going to come back to bite him in the backside. 

[Old Cat Lady]

woops.  Just re-watched SkAm.  I guess you could say that program was clean since the under rotation didn't get called and we don't generally count edge problems, quality issues, and level downgrades when we think of clean - but yikes, 2 level 2 elements.  Was that on purpose after the JPN open debacle?  For some reason I thought he stepped out of a jump but he didn't

 

Says a lot that Chen only managed 9.09 ave PCS when he skated the cleanest I can think of (I don't follow Chen closely so don't take my word on that) on home turf.  

 

But I'm not surprised that Chen doesn't have a lot of clean skates.  He's risen by pushing his technical limits to the very edge of his ability.  Yuzu, on the other hand, waits until he has a high success rate before implementing things, and even he has only 6(?) clean free skates in international competition and he's been competing a lot longer, and that's counting 2014 worlds, which had a lot of quality issues with the jumps.  

 

 

[Old Cat Lady]

Because I'm an obsessive nutjob, I went back and checked clean senior international skates for the major skaters of the last couple quads.  The only completely objective way I could think of to define "clean" is if all elements have positive GOE.  This means that skates with pops are included for "clean" skates and many skates with edge calls got excluded, which significantly reduced the numbers for both Yuzu and Shoma. I questioned whether pops should be included or edge calls should be excluded (since it's their technique at the time rather than a mistake) but I figured that just leads one down a deep rabbit hole so best to just be cut and dry about the definition.  Yuzu's 2012 WC skate is included as well - another one I question but he didn't fall on an element so he still ended up with positive GOE for the skate.

 

Patrick Chan: 12 of 92 skates = 13%

Javier Fernandez: 13 of 110 = 11.82%

Nathan Chen: 5 of 31 = 16.29%

Shoma Uno: 5 of 51 = 9.8%

Hanyu: 21 of 85 = 24.71%

 

Interesting that Yuzu has such a reputation for inconsistency but he has the highest percentage.  Of course, part of that is because his elements are such high quality that even with mistakes he can get positive GOE on them.  But there were also several skates that most people would consider clean that aren't in the list - I didn't count, but I'm pretty sure the latter outnumbers the former.

 

Also, I couldn't find the results for a few very small competitions.  Shoma seems to skate in EVERYTHING.

[rockstaryuzu]

On 11/15/2018 at 10:32 PM, Old Cat Lady said:

Because I'm an obsessive nutjob, I went back and checked clean senior international skates for the major skaters of the last couple quads.  The only completely objective way I could think of to define "clean" is if all elements have positive GOE.  This means that skates with pops are included for "clean" skates and many skates with edge calls got excluded, which significantly reduced the numbers for both Yuzu and Shoma. I questioned whether pops should be included or edge calls should be excluded (since it's their technique at the time rather than a mistake) but I figured that just leads one down a deep rabbit hole so best to just be cut and dry about the definition.  Yuzu's 2012 WC skate is included as well - another one I question but he didn't fall on an element so he still ended up with positive GOE for the skate.

 

Patrick Chan: 12 of 92 skates = 13%

Javier Fernandez: 13 of 110 = 11.82%

Nathan Chen: 5 of 31 = 16.29%

Shoma Uno: 5 of 51 = 9.8%

Hanyu: 21 of 85 = 24.71%

 

Interesting that Yuzu has such a reputation for inconsistency but he has the highest percentage.  Of course, part of that is because his elements are such high quality that even with mistakes he can get positive GOE on them.  But there were also several skates that most people would consider clean that aren't in the list - I didn't count, but I'm pretty sure the latter outnumbers the former.

 

Also, I couldn't find the results for a few very small competitions.  Shoma seems to skate in EVERYTHING.

Since these numbers are pretty well  career averages, it makes me curious how the number changes over the course of a career. It would be interesting to plot the progression of the percentage of clean skates people achieve, year over year, and see if there's any change, or if the clean skate rate is basically a constant. 

 

Also, I would consider a popped jump to be not clean, because the skater is missing out on the planned element when they pop. Basically, I would define a clean skate as one in which the skater achieved all their planned elements as planned and without major errors, regardless of GOE. 

[makebelieveup]

Bringing this back bc i cant sit still with literally 4 weeks left until worlds

 

In order to get the most optimized layout yet doable at this point i think this is the ideal layout. of course we cant change what yuzu is planning but i just messed around with the app and came up with

 

4lo

4Sal

FCoSp4

StSq4

3F

4T 

2nd half

4S3T 

3Aeu3S

3A2T2Lo

ChSq1

FCSSp4

CCoSp4   

 Max value assuming 100 PCS and all + 5 GOE = 232.42