2019/2020 Men's Skating

[Old Cat Lady]

Don't have time to comment now but want to post this before I forget

 

 

I wish I knew how to post it at the exact time stamp.  I managed to pause it at the exact moment of pick and you can see that Nathan is on a complete flat if not a slight outside edge.

 

Yuzu is on the shallowest of inside edges at pick

 

Also, it was pointed out to me in another thread that I had the wrong layout for Nathan at SkAm so I redid his projections for Skate America

	Actual TES	Actual PCS	Deductions	Actual Total
SP	56.21	46.5		102.71
LP	102.38	94		196.38
				299.09
	Proj TES	Proj PCS	Deductions	Proj Total
SP	58.24	46.50		104.74
LP	119.36	94.78		214.14
				318.87
			BV:	141.02

 

 

Here's Nathan's projections for IdF

	Actual TES	Actual PCS	Deductions	Actual Total
SP	55.97	46.51		102.48
LP	102.1	92.58		194.68
				297.16
	Proj TES	Proj PCS	Deductions	Proj Total
SP	61.12	46.51		107.63
LP	117.31	94.78		212.09
				319.72
			BV:	140.75

 

I used a 3 GOE for Nathan's quads and his LP axel GOE for his SP axel.  

 

I swear, I have more to talk about than Nathan and Yuzu but I'll have to get to it later

[shanshani]

In non-Nathan-and-Yuzuru news, it seems like Samarin is shaping up the be Russia's #1 man this season, possibly even #3 in the field now that Shoma has cratered. I'm so not down with this development--ugh, I want Misha back. And his PCS are overscored as heck, 8.5 for his empty, just-skating-between-quads programs at IdF? When Kevin Aymoz got the same thing for his infinitely more musical and choreographically interesting program? If he does start landing them with more consistency you know they'll go up even more too.

 

Also, the field is just decimated in general compared to how it was 2 or 3 years ago. Boyang and Shoma are having major difficulties, Misha has his health issues, and even Vincent Zhou is apparently chronically injured. Can we talk about quad-mania and health now? The casualties have started emerging. 

[surimi]

32 minutes ago, shanshani said:

Can we talk about quad-mania and health now? The casualties have started emerging. 

 

This is a very good point. I see a lot of people outraged at the idea that age limits should be raised because skating is a technically evolving sport, but could all those competition WD this season have anything to do with the rapid increase of difficulty? They're not so much in dance which is more or less stagnant compared to singles, but most of them are in ladies, and a number in men also. Food for thought...

[Old Cat Lady]

These comments are based on memory so I might change my mind when I have more time to look into it, but I tend to think of 2016/2017/2018 more as a golden age of men's skating rather than the current time as a decimation.  I've been watching since the early 90's and iirc, skaters have always had a short shelf life.  It's also common for the field to be weaker in the 2 post Olympic years as old champions retire and new ones are still developing.

 

Currently, we have 2 heavy weights battling for gold and a whole bunch of very talented skaters battling for bronze.  In the initial post Sochi competitions, we had Yuzu and Javi battling for gold and some less talented and/or less developed skaters going for bronze until the Shoma, Nathan, Boyang were developed enough to challenge by 2017 and 2018.  Post vancouver, was Patrick and Dai with weaker skaters sneaking in for the bronze until the rise of Yuzu, Denis, and Javi to make it more of a competition.  From 2003-2009 it was Plushenko and the rest.  Post Nagano, we had Yagudin vs. Plushenko and a bunch of also rans.  1995-1998, we had Elvis winning more on mental strength in a field of inconsistent skaters until the Olympic year with Todd Eldredge, who peaked then went away sneaking in for a world title.

 

The point of all this, is that it's hard to say how much of the current state of skating can be blamed on the rise of multi quad programs when there were always ebbs and flows in skating talent.  In fact, I would argue that the current field is actually stronger than a lot of the previous ones at this stage of the Olympic cycle.

 

Boyang is a chronic slow starter and it's pretty common for improvements in skating skills to wreck consistency on jumps. Kolyada's absence has nothing to do with skating (at least i don't see a connection between sinusitis and quads except maybe skating prevented him from getting proper treatment for it earlier).  Many people have speculated that Uno's technique wouldn't hold up over the long run so it has more to do with coaching issues than quads themselves and even then, his issues this year seem more mental/life situational than physical.  Zhou's problems also seems more mental/coaching technique/life issues - not sure, but I thought that injury he got over the summer was more of a freak accident. Aliev has always been a head case.   Further down the list, we see another beautiful head case in Samohin - the raw material is there, he just need to put it together.  We have Cha who is still maturing and needing consistency. I personally think Samarin has a lot of raw potential to work with - huge jumps, it looks like good speed (though never seen him irl), exuberance, good posture, and a decent natural body line  - perfectly normal for skaters to still be rough around the edges at this stage in their career.  

 

I know most people see all the short comings, but I see the depth of talent.  The second tier is so much deeper than the 90's and early 2000's. I see the gap in scoring to be more about greatness at the top

[Salior]

2 hours ago, shanshani said:

In non-Nathan-and-Yuzuru news, it seems like Samarin is shaping up the be Russia's #1 man this season, possibly even #3 in the field now that Shoma has cratered. I'm so not down with this development--ugh, I want Misha back. And his PCS are overscored as heck, 8.5 for his empty, just-skating-between-quads programs at IdF? When Kevin Aymoz got the same thing for his infinitely more musical and choreographically interesting program? If he does start landing them with more consistency you know they'll go up even more too.

 

Also, the field is just decimated in general compared to how it was 2 or 3 years ago. Boyang and Shoma are having major difficulties, Misha has his health issues, and even Vincent Zhou is apparently chronically injured. Can we talk about quad-mania and health now? The casualties have started emerging. 

 

what was Zhou's chronic injury? I thought the knee was a one-off thing

[shanshani]

15 minutes ago, Old Cat Lady said:

These comments are based on memory so I might change my mind when I have more time to look into it, but I tend to think of 2016/2017/2018 more as a golden age of men's skating rather than the current time as a decimation.  I've been watching since the early 90's and iirc, skaters have always had a short shelf life.  It's also common for the field to be weaker in the 2 post Olympic years as old champions retire and new ones are still developing.

 

Currently, we have 2 heavy weights battling for gold and a whole bunch of very talented skaters battling for bronze.  In the initial post Sochi competitions, we had Yuzu and Javi battling for gold and some less talented and/or less developed skaters going for bronze until the Shoma, Nathan, Boyang were developed enough to challenge by 2017 and 2018.  Post vancouver, was Patrick and Dai with weaker skaters sneaking in for the bronze until the rise of Yuzu, Denis, and Javi to make it more of a competition.  From 2003-2009 it was Plushenko and the rest.  Post Nagano, we had Yagudin vs. Plushenko and a bunch of also rans.  1995-1998, we had Elvis winning more on mental strength in a field of inconsistent skaters until the Olympic year with Todd Eldredge, who peaked then went away sneaking in for a world title.

 

The point of all this, is that it's hard to say how much of the current state of skating can be blamed on the rise of multi quad programs when there were always ebbs and flows in skating talent.  In fact, I would argue that the current field is actually stronger than a lot of the previous ones at this stage of the Olympic cycle.

 

Boyang is a chronic slow starter and it's pretty common for improvements in skating skills to wreck consistency on jumps. Kolyada's absence has nothing to do with skating (at least i don't see a connection between sinusitis and quads except maybe skating prevented him from getting proper treatment for it earlier).  Many people have speculated that Uno's technique wouldn't hold up over the long run so it has more to do with coaching issues than quads themselves and even then, his issues this year seem more mental/life situational than physical.  Zhou's problems also seems more mental/coaching technique/life issues - not sure, but I thought that injury he got over the summer was more of a freak accident. Aliev has always been a head case.   Further down the list, we see another beautiful head case in Samohin - the raw material is there, he just need to put it together.  We have Cha who is still maturing and needing consistency. I personally think Samarin has a lot of raw potential to work with - huge jumps, it looks like good speed (though never seen him irl), exuberance, good posture, and a decent natural body line  - perfectly normal for skaters to still be rough around the edges at this stage in their career.  

 

I know most people see all the short comings, but I see the depth of talent.  The second tier is so much deeper than the 90's and early 2000's. I see the gap in scoring to be more about greatness at the top

Sure, there are ebbs and flows in talent, but is it normal for two extremely talented skaters (Boyang and Shoma) to drop off so hard? Shoma's problems are not just his coaching situation, he was injury plagued at the end of last season. We don't actually know what Boyang's issues are because there's isn't that much news out of China, but he's also had his own struggle with injury and he has had like, one decent competition since the Olympics. Yuzu being out for the majority of 2 seasons was 100% due to the quad race--the only reason he hasn't dropped off is because he has ungodly levels of talent, grit, and determination. Misha may not be directly quad-related, but the need to land quads definitely exacerbates his situation. I'm not clear on the Vincent Zhou situation, but I saw reports that he also has a chronic back injury.

 

I'm not trying to insult everyone below Yuzu and Nate and call them untalented. There's lots of lower tier skaters that I like and am pleased to see are doing well, like Jason Brown and Kevin Aymoz. But I think we should be asking questions, because the drop off in competitiveness is not just due to retirements, as is normal after the Olympics. It's also due to formerly highly competitive skaters crashing. I mean, Yuzu himself brought up the toll that the push for ever increasing technical difficulty has on skaters' health in the Sponichi interview.

 

Re: Samarin, he has big jumps and decent speed, but I'd say he's really rough around the edges on everything else. His programs are really empty, he skates through the music for most of the program to a level beyond what perpetual complaint-magnet Nathan does, and I don't think his posture is good. Again my point is not to insult him. He is a hard worker like all skaters, and we all know that sacrificing choreography for jumps is smart strategy given the current state of judging. My point is to complain that once again, PCS does not reflect what's actually performed, and he's being buoyed by big-country scoring to a level of competitiveness beyond what his current level of ability warrants.

[Old Cat Lady]

7 hours ago, shanshani said:

Sure, there are ebbs and flows in talent, but is it normal for two extremely talented skaters (Boyang and Shoma) to drop off so hard? Shoma's problems are not just his coaching situation, he was injury plagued at the end of last season. We don't actually know what Boyang's issues are because there's isn't that much news out of China, but he's also had his own struggle with injury and he has had like, one decent competition since the Olympics. Yuzu being out for the majority of 2 seasons was 100% due to the quad race--the only reason he hasn't dropped off is because he has ungodly levels of talent, grit, and determination. Misha may not be directly quad-related, but the need to land quads definitely exacerbates his situation. I'm not clear on the Vincent Zhou situation, but I saw reports that he also has a chronic back injury.

 

 

re: commonality of highly talented skaters crashing/career ending injuries 

keep in mind that I followed skating minimally between 2006-2018.  Off the top of my head with an assist from wiki for verification...

 

Tonya Harding - Silver medal at 1991 worlds and no medals on the world or Olympic stage in spite of being one of the most talented skaters

Urmanov -  1994 Olympic champion - has never gotten a world medal past 1994, injured himself in 1997 and didn't heal in time for 1998 Olympics, retired

Oksana Baiul - lost her jumps post 1994, multiple personal problems - and yes, I know she retired  but even by pro standards, her tech was poor

 

Jamie Silverstein - ice dancing - won junior worlds and together with Justin Pekarek - was touted as future world/Olympic medal contender.  took a break to treat an eating disorder and never managed to reach previous levels

 

Nicole Bobek - 1 world bronze medal and no other world/Olympic medals. 

Gracie Gold - 4th at worlds- eating disorder, currently can't make the TES minimum 

Gabrielle Daleman - 3rd at worlds - multiple problems - highest international finish since then was 6th at a challenger/Grand Prix event

Julia Lipnitskaya - 2014 world silver medalist/4th at Olympics - never again made the world team - eating disorder/technique not designed for a growing body 

Adelina Sotnikova - Olympic champion to not making world team - injury?/technique not designed for growing body

Anna Pogorilaya - from 3rd at worlds to 13th, never again made the world team - retired due to back injury

Tatsuki Machida - world silver, no other world or Olympic medal - following season was 6th at GPF and then retired

Kimmie Meissner - 2006 world champion, then 4th, then 7th, then didn't make the world team 

Angelika Krylova - ice dance - world champion to retirement due to back injury

Philippe Candeloro - went from 3rd at worlds/Olympics to 9th to not making the French world team before his resurgence in 1998

 

There's a lot more examples, especially if you go across sports, but the point is, it's not that rare for highly talented skaters (athletes in general) to peak and not maintain those high levels for various reasons.  That's why usually when people refer to all time greats, they normally choose someone who's managed to be at the top for many years - because it's so difficult and rare to maintain that excellence.

 

re: relationship between quads and shortened career

While I would agree that any time you increase the difficulty, you're increasing the risk of injury.  But where are you drawing the line and what is the solution?  From what I can tell, there are many more career crashes due to factors other than quads - do we also manage every one of those and, if so, where is the ISU finding all this money to monitor/enforce this?  And if you want to focus on the quads - what is  a fair solution? 

 

I would argue that Yuzu's 2 major injuries are due more to illness, poor ice conditions, and being injury prone in general. If it was purely due to the quad race, these injuries would be just as likely at home.  And he was frequently injured before the men's event evolved to 4+ quads in the FS.  

 

Conversely, look at Nathan Chen.  He's done more quads than anyone and has remained injury free in over 3 years as a senior.  His only significant injury was due to growth spurts while he was still a junior. 

 

A for Vincent, Shoma, and Boyang, as you said, we're not really sure what's going on with them. Vincent's knee injury was sustained while he was doing shows, so it seems highly unlikely that he did it while pushing himself too far technically and I've never heard about the back - seems strange that he would hide that when he was so open about the knee but who knows.  But a lot of things lead to back problems - are we supposed to stop all of them?  Tara Lipinski's hip injury is likely due to drilling 3lo/3lo - should we stop loop combos?  As for Misha, almost any time you have a condition, pushing yourself to extremes is going to exacerbate it - I admit I don't know much about sinusitis, but it seems that doing a full run through even with all triples would also exacerbate a health condition.  

 

Professional sports in general, is hard on the body.  The human body was not designed to consistently be put under these extremes. That's why so few can do it for a long time.  The only real solution to stop the deterioration of the body is to stop people from competing.  Obviously questions should always be asked on how things can be improved, but it should be done with the understanding that elite sports by nature is kind of freakish and we shouldn't let personal preference bias the questions we ask 

 

 

Quote

 

Re: Samarin, he has big jumps and decent speed, but I'd say he's really rough around the edges on everything else. ...

I didn't make any attempt to justify Samarin's PCS nor was I trying to compare him to any other skater, only using him as an example of another extremely talented skater to illustrate why I think the current field is actually very deep.  I did say specifically that he was rough around the edges in my post. 

 

 

 

 

[shanshani]

7 minutes ago, Old Cat Lady said:

 

 

re: commonality of highly talented skaters crashing/career ending injuries 

keep in mind that I followed skating minimally between 2006-2018.  Off the top of my head with an assist from wiki for verification...

 

Tonya Harding - Silver medal at 1991 worlds and no medals on the world or Olympic stage in spite of being one of the most talented skaters

Urmanov -  1994 Olympic champion - has never gotten a world medal past 1994, injured himself in 1997 and didn't heal in time for 1998 Olympics, retired

Oksana Baiul - lost her jumps post 1994, multiple personal problems - and yes, I know she retired  but even by pro standards, her tech was poor

 

Jamie Silverstein - ice dancing - won junior worlds and together with Justin Pekarek - was touted as future world/Olympic medal contender.  took a break to treat an eating disorder and never managed to reach previous levels

 

Nicole Bobek - 1 world bronze medal and no other world/Olympic medals. 

Gracie Gold - 4th at worlds- eating disorder, currently can't make the TES minimum 

Gabrielle Daleman - 3rd at worlds - multiple problems - highest international finish since then was 6th at a challenger/Grand Prix event

Julia Lipnitskaya - 2014 world silver medalist/4th at Olympics - never again made the world team - eating disorder/technique not designed for a growing body 

Adelina Sotnikova - Olympic champion to not making world team - injury?/technique not designed for growing body

Anna Pogorilaya - from 3rd at worlds to 13th, never again made the world team - retired due to back injury

Tatsuki Machida - world silver, no other world or Olympic medal - following season was 6th at GPF and then retired

Kimmie Meissner - 2006 world champion, then 4th, then 7th, then didn't make the world team 

Angelika Krylova - ice dance - world champion to retirement due to back injury

Philippe Candeloro - went from 3rd at worlds/Olympics to 9th to not making the French world team before his resurgence in 1998

 

There's a lot more examples, especially if you go across sports, but the point is, it's not that rare for highly talented skaters (athletes in general) to peak and not maintain those high levels for various reasons.  That's why usually when people refer to all time greats, they normally choose someone who's managed to be at the top for many years - because it's so difficult and rare to maintain that excellence.

 

re: relationship between quads and shortened career

While I would agree that any time you increase the difficulty, you're increasing the risk of injury.  But where are you drawing the line and what is the solution?  From what I can tell, there are many more career crashes due to factors other than quads - do we also manage every one of those and, if so, where is the ISU finding all this money to monitor/enforce this?  And if you want to focus on the quads - what is  a fair solution? 

 

I would argue that Yuzu's 2 major injuries are due more to illness, poor ice conditions, and being injury prone in general. If it was purely due to the quad race, these injuries would be just as likely at home.  And he was frequently injured before the men's event evolved to 4+ quads in the FS.  

 

Conversely, look at Nathan Chen.  He's done more quads than anyone and has remained injury free in over 3 years as a senior.  His only significant injury was due to growth spurts while he was still a junior. 

 

A for Vincent, Shoma, and Boyang, as you said, we're not really sure what's going on with them. Vincent's knee injury was sustained while he was doing shows, so it seems highly unlikely that he did it while pushing himself too far technically and I've never heard about the back - seems strange that he would hide that when he was so open about the knee but who knows.  But a lot of things lead to back problems - are we supposed to stop all of them?  Tara Lipinski's hip injury is likely due to drilling 3lo/3lo - should we stop loop combos?  As for Misha, almost any time you have a condition, pushing yourself to extremes is going to exacerbate it - I admit I don't know much about sinusitis, but it seems that doing a full run through even with all triples would also exacerbate a health condition.  

 

Professional sports in general, is hard on the body.  The human body was not designed to consistently be put under these extremes. That's why so few can do it for a long time.  The only real solution to stop the deterioration of the body is to stop people from competing.  Obviously questions should always be asked on how things can be improved, but it should be done with the understanding that elite sports by nature is kind of freakish and we shouldn't let personal preference bias the questions we ask 

 

 

I didn't make any attempt to justify Samarin's PCS nor was I trying to compare him to any other skater, only using him as an example of another extremely talented skater to illustrate why I think the current field is actually very deep.  I did say specifically that he was rough around the edges in my post. 

 

 

 

 

Sure, the problem may not necessarily be quads. But the fact that it occurs in other cases is not evidence that the hyper focus on quads does not pose a significant health problem, and isn't a primary factor in the case of Shoma and Boyang. In fact, I would say that these other cases, rather than showing that quads do not pose any additional health risk, rather show that this sport has a tendency to ignore athlete's health for the sake of competitiveness. Quads are one iteration of this issue, but it may not be the only one.

 

Nate being the single example of a man who has survived the quad race unscathed (for now) is not encouraging. I would argue in Nate's case there are several factors protecting him that don't exist for many skaters. First, he's relatively young, so the wear and tear hasn't had as much time to set in. Second, he has good technique (but as easy as it is to say “oh well skaters should just learn good technique then” we know that that's not what actually happens and the ISU's scoring practices do not incentivize it). Third, he jumps small, which means he experiences less force when he lands compared to most skaters jumping equivalent difficulty jumps. But not everyone who jumps quads will be able to manage the rotation speed to jump as small as he does, nor will they stop trying to jump quads just because they have to jump higher and risk more injury. Right now, skaters have no choice: they have to jump more quads to be more competitive, no matter how shoddy their fundamental technique or whatever injury risk it poses to them. So that's what they're going to do.

 

And I wasn't suggesting we should ban quads, nowhere did I argue that. In fact, what I would suggest is what Yuzu's Sponichi interview seems to recommend: rebalancing BV and PCS/GOE (or rather, correcting the scoring of the latter) so that skaters have other ways to pursue higher scores, and they aren't forced to upgrade tech (and certainly not as quickly as they do now) and can go the artistry/skating skills route instead. This is far safer for the athletes, would correct an imbalance that exists in the scoring anyway, and result in far more enjoyable programs. Frankly, I can't see how anyone could read that interview and not see that Yuzu is saying that the trend of hyper-focus on quads is bad for the health of athletes. 

 

Yuzu: (can't figure out how to quote on mobile, sorry):

 

“This is something I personally feel, but I have an impression that there's been a gradual inclination towards high difficulty jumps. Because I have the impression that it's something inevitable, I've been practising with this in mind. WEll, it was like this with the Axel and also with the Lutz. It's a little...hm...if only by a little, I think maybe I was able to stem this trend with this competition. I think that's the part I'm happiest about. It's because I believe in my own approach that I feel I was able to slightly put a halt to that trend. I also think this affects all skaters' physical health.”

[Old Cat Lady]

1 hour ago, shanshani said:

Sure, the problem may not necessarily be quads. But the fact that it occurs in other cases is not evidence that the hyper focus on quads does not pose a significant health problem, and isn't a primary factor in the case of Shoma and Boyang. In fact, I would say that these other cases, rather than showing that quads do not pose any additional health risk, rather show that this sport has a tendency to ignore athlete's health for the sake of competitiveness. Quads are one iteration of this issue, but it may not be the only one.

 

I never said that quads don't contribute to a health risk - what I'm saying is that elite sports in itself is a health risk.  Where and why do you draw the line? What is the solution?  And why arbitrarily focus on the quads when other factors have caused even more health problems?  If you go by risk, pairs skating should be banned.

 

In the case of Shoma and Boyang, as we have both acknowledged, we don't know what's going on with them.  Why automatically put the onus on the quads?  From the outside, Boyang also often seems depressed and under a lot of national pressure. As for Shoma, people have been speculating future problems due to his technique for years and I haven't heard about any current injury yet his skating took a steep decline from last year to this year.

 

Quote

 

Nate being the single example of a man who has survived the quad race unscathed (for now) is not encouraging. 

 

 I wouldn't say Nate is the only one.  He's just the most successful one.  I still don't see evidence that Vincent's and Kolyada's problems are primarily due to quads and there's lower ranked skaters that have been injury free or at least, no more injury prone than before quads became a thing.

 

Quote

 

And I wasn't suggesting we should ban quads, nowhere did I argue that. In fact, what I would suggest is what Yuzu's Sponichi interview seems to recommend: rebalancing BV and PCS/GOE (or rather, correcting the scoring of the latter) so that skaters have other ways to pursue higher scores, and they aren't forced to upgrade tech (and certainly not as quickly as they do now) and can go the artistry/skating skills route instead. T

 

I didn't say that you were saying that quads should be banned - just pointing out that the issue of shortened careers goes far beyond the quad race and was using examples to show why it is unreasonable to make them the sole focus. 

 

I would agree that a re-balancing is in order.  the one measure that the ISU implemented to limit quads actually seems to cause injury because now skaters aren't competitive at the top with "only" 1 or 2 kinds of quads and are forced to learn new jumps - pretty sure it's the development stage that is the most high risk of learning any new element. Heck, even just applying the current system according to the actual guidelines and better defining the scoring would make a huge difference in quality of the programs.   Under this system, there's no reason that a skater shouldn't have a 20 point cushion in PCS or in other elements -once again, it's the application of the system that's the problem.

 

However, unless the field is weak or you rebalance to the point that BV is extremely disproportionate to an element's difficulty (which causes other problems), I don't see a huge difference being made because in a strong field, the top skaters will still have to eke out every point where they can find it

 

eta: My personal ideal would be to cut 1 or 2 jumping passes but allow greater freedom in the passes.  No penalty for sequences and a bonus for combos.  Add the 30 seconds back in and have another non-jump element of the skaters choice. Don't know if this would do anything for health, but I think there would be a big improvement in quality of programs while also allowing the jumpers to still excel at what they're good at

[Old Cat Lady]

Looks like GS fan fest has a translation of an interview with Shoma. Some insights about his current state.  Not sure if it's ok to put a link so if admins delete this, just go to page 750 of the Shoma fanfest

 

https://www.goldenskate.com/forum/showthread.php?55427-Shoma-Uno/page750

[shanshani]

16 hours ago, Old Cat Lady said:

 

I never said that quads don't contribute to a health risk - what I'm saying is that elite sports in itself is a health risk.  Where and why do you draw the line? What is the solution?  And why arbitrarily focus on the quads when other factors have caused even more health problems?  If you go by risk, pairs skating should be banned.

 

In the case of Shoma and Boyang, as we have both acknowledged, we don't know what's going on with them.  Why automatically put the onus on the quads?  From the outside, Boyang also often seems depressed and under a lot of national pressure. As for Shoma, people have been speculating future problems due to his technique for years and I haven't heard about any current injury yet his skating took a steep decline from last year to this year.

 

 

 I wouldn't say Nate is the only one.  He's just the most successful one.  I still don't see evidence that Vincent's and Kolyada's problems are primarily due to quads and there's lower ranked skaters that have been injury free or at least, no more injury prone than before quads became a thing.

 

 

I didn't say that you were saying that quads should be banned - just pointing out that the issue of shortened careers goes far beyond the quad race and was using examples to show why it is unreasonable to make them the sole focus. 

 

I would agree that a re-balancing is in order.  the one measure that the ISU implemented to limit quads actually seems to cause injury because now skaters aren't competitive at the top with "only" 1 or 2 kinds of quads and are forced to learn new jumps - pretty sure it's the development stage that is the most high risk of learning any new element. Heck, even just applying the current system according to the actual guidelines and better defining the scoring would make a huge difference in quality of the programs.   Under this system, there's no reason that a skater shouldn't have a 20 point cushion in PCS or in other elements -once again, it's the application of the system that's the problem.

 

However, unless the field is weak or you rebalance to the point that BV is extremely disproportionate to an element's difficulty (which causes other problems), I don't see a huge difference being made because in a strong field, the top skaters will still have to eke out every point where they can find it

 

eta: My personal ideal would be to cut 1 or 2 jumping passes but allow greater freedom in the passes.  No penalty for sequences and a bonus for combos.  Add the 30 seconds back in and have another non-jump element of the skaters choice. Don't know if this would do anything for health, but I think there would be a big improvement in quality of programs while also allowing the jumpers to still excel at what they're good at

I mean, sure, elite sports are inherently a health risk, but that doesn't mean you can't alter how much of a health risk it is and rebalance the sport so that athletes are less likely to injure themselves. That's why certain elements are banned, after all. There's risk and then there's excessive risk, and I think we need to ask ourselves if the current scoring doesn't encourage the latter. As for why put the onus on quads, well it's the one thing the Yuzu, Shoma, Vincent, and Boyang situations have in common, is actually explicitly the problem in the Yuzu case, and it also ties in to the problems with the scoring system being way too tilted in favor of hard jumps in general. My point is that the scoring imbalance has a human cost not only in the careers of skaters whose strengths aren't landing hard jumps, but also in the health of all skaters.

 

And sure, more quads will always be an option to get a competitive edge...but with altered scoring it won't be the only option. Skaters could choose to work on other things instead. Which means the scoring system won't force a race to land as many quads as possible. Might there still be skaters like Sasha Trusova who go for as many quads as possible because that's what they enjoy and are good at? Sure. But people could compete with her in ways that don't involve landing as many quads as she does, thereby reducing the overall risk level of the sport.

 

Top skaters certainly have not maximized the parts of their programs that aren't quads. Nate's programs are still pretty empty, especially on transitions going into jumps. Sasha Trusova's programs are basically nothing but elements. Both of those skaters are top skaters who could stand to make improvements in areas that aren't BV. I would even argue that Origin is not really maximized artistically and shows signs of the in-betweens being compromised for the jumps. So even in the case of top skaters, going for more BV should not be the only option, even though it effectively is at this point in time.

[Old Cat Lady]

19 hours ago, shanshani said:

I mean, sure, elite sports are inherently a health risk, but that doesn't mean you can't alter how much of a health risk it is and rebalance the sport so that athletes are less likely to injure themselves. That's why certain elements are banned, after all. There's risk and then there's excessive risk, and I think we need to ask ourselves if the current scoring doesn't encourage the latter. As for why put the onus on quads, well it's the one thing the Yuzu, Shoma, Vincent, and Boyang situations have in common, is actually explicitly the problem in the Yuzu case, and it also ties in to the problems with the scoring system being way too tilted in favor of hard jumps in general. My point is that the scoring imbalance has a human cost not only in the careers of skaters whose strengths aren't landing hard jumps, but also in the health of all skaters.

 

So annoying to not be able to split paragraphs.  Anyway... I think we're just going in circles since I simply don't agree with your logic circle. 

 

What makes a quad a more excessive health risk than, for example, a throw jump that goes half way across the rink or a lift where the lady is upside down while 8 feet in the air? I don't see why quads are crossing this line when there are much more dangerous elements that don't.

 

In fact, the GOE system encourages factors that make elements more risky - bigger jumps create more force and are harder to land (causing more likelihood for injury), Lucinda Ruh had some sort of brain damage simply from the speed of her spins, the Biellmann has caused chronic back injuries to multiple skaters, sbs pairs spins are supposed to be done close together yet pair skaters have had brain damage due to skate blades cutting the partners head, etc., etc, etc.  Should we limit jumping bigger or spinning faster - a quad is just another iteration of an elevated element. 

 

Yuzu, Shoma, Vincent, and Boyang also have spins and step sequences and triple jumps in common. I'm not saying quads don't contribute to injuries, but I don't agree that it should be singled out.  As we've already discussed, in all these cases there were other contributing factors - both Boyang and Shoma have outright said that unhappiness contributed to their slumps - mental issues have hurt far more careers than quads.  And in Shoma's case, there are no reported injuries this year - his decline this year doesn't indicate anything physical at all and he was still in the mix for the gold last year - he has one bad competition under immense home town pressure and a rough start while in a difficult personal situation and now we're writing him off?  He could still medal at worlds and/or 4CC this year.  In Boyang's case, we don't know anything other than what we can see - instability in jumps, improvement in other aspects of his skating, the combo having derailed multiple previous skaters.  In Yuzu's case, he was sick at NHK and adjusting to ice conditions in Rostelecom - it isn't simply attempting a quad that caused the injury, if so, these injuries would also happen at home when he's jumping them far more often than a competition.  In Vincent's case, we don't know if that knee injury had anything to do with a quad - was he even doing them while touring shows?  Vincent is also reported to have a difficult home life and multiple huge life changes not to mention he also started out slowly last year.  He's the reigning bronze medalists - why are we writing him off already?

 

Sure, there were also injuries in the mix but the sad reality is that, unless an athlete is extremely lucky, injury is a natural part of a sporting career.  

 

Quote

 

Top skaters certainly have not maximized the parts of their programs that aren't quads. Nate's programs are still pretty empty, especially on transitions going into jumps. Sasha Trusova's programs are basically nothing but elements. Both of those skaters are top skaters who could stand to make improvements in areas that aren't BV. I would even argue that Origin is not really maximized artistically and shows signs of the in-betweens being compromised for the jumps. So even in the case of top skaters, going for more BV should not be the only option, even though it effectively is at this point in time.

 

Honestly, not seeing where we disagree 

 

I'm not saying that skaters have maxed out. Most skaters are simply not able to max out every aspect of their skating. That's why you have a variety of skills available - some are good at jumps, some are good at spins, etc.  Though as I've said, I do agree that there should be more point value on other elements and more time to do them.  But at the same time, the value still needs to reflect the difficulty of doing the element.  It's unfairly tilted the other way if you diminish the value of difficult elements to the point that there's no reward at all for increasing difficulty.

 

I think it's a bit unfair to use Trusova as an example of an incomplete skater due to lack of incentive to work on them- she is just coming out of juniors. I don't expect any 15 year old to be a complete skater.  The Eteri girls in general do seem to work on all their elements (though not so much the basics) which is a large part of their advantage.  As for Nate, it's true that he doesn't generally do transitions into his jumps, but you can see why when he does try - the jumps visibly suffer every time so he's taking more risk for less GOE.  

 

Once again, while I agree that the current system should be tweaked a bit, even just judging according to the principles behind it should shift some of the focus. The major problem, as usual, is the judging.  If judges actually properly capped Nate for his small, simple jumps and deducted for his often weak landings, the GOE+PCS for an exceptionally executed 3 quad program should still beat Nate's normal 5 quad program.  If there were visual examples of what should get a 9 vs. 8. vs 7 in PCS, judges could be held to a clearer standard and skaters would have a better idea of what to do and there wouldn't be the general trend of using PCS as an ordinal rather than reflecting what the skater is actually doing.

 

That being said, I would certainly change things about the current system.  Other than cutting a jump for a non-jump element, I would also change the GOE system. The increase in factored GOE for increase in difficulty - By making it a percentage, you are compounding the problem of rewarding BV for BV's sake.  Maybe the only tweak needed is that you get a flat +1 per GOE level for each element no matter what (don't take that seriously, just spit balling ideas) - suddenly an exceptionally done spin can be worth as much as a poorly executed axel - the BV would reward the difference in risk/difficulty of elements while the GOE incentivizes quality.  A high quality quad is still worth significantly more, but people can no longer get away with having only quads.  Of course, the problem with this is that it puts even more of the outcome in the judges' hands and then we circle back to the issue above 

 

And I would agree that Yuzuru has adjusted Origin so he can better execute elements.  Otoh, poor execution does detract from the overall impression of a program so it's a trade off.  This is why I'm not on board with all the Aymoz love coming from this forum -  his LP is Daniil-esque - a bunch of ugly transitions for the sake of having transitions that lead to poorly executed jumps, which diminishes the quality of the performance (I do like his SP and SP's more in general which is why I think cutting a jumping pass would help).  Obviously the ideal is to have both complicated transitions and great execution, but as Nate and Kevin show, most skaters are not capable of doing both and I do believe that they both work on it.  But once again, this is a judging issue - let Kevin have his sky high transition score, let Nate have his performance score, but then reflect the shortcomings in the other marks.  Give Samarin and Trusova the 7's they deserve.

 

However, even with a change in system, in a field that's close, skaters are going to keep maxing out their jumps unless you rescale the BV's to the point that it is ridiculously out of proportion to the difficulty, making it unfair in the other direction.  Even in the current system,  Nate has improved his spins and quality of his jumps and performance quality while Yuzuru is working on a greatly devalued 4 axel and also improved his performance. No, neither of them are maxed out on everything but that's almost impossible so they need to find that balance and they are working on improving.  In a close race, changing the system isn't going to stop competitive skaters from pushing their limits because they need every edge, which means there will still be injuries.   Plushenko and Chan could afford to stagnate because they had a cushion between them and the rest of the field - then it bit them in the ass on the big stage (and in Plushenko's case, he was practically bionic from injuires by the time he retired in spite of not pushing himself more).

 

eta: whew, clearly I am either an obsessive compulsive nutter or I have too much time on my hands.

[WinForPooh]

I really like the discussion ^^^

 

Re pairs being dangerous: They did devalue quad throw jumps to discourage them, didn't they? So they are more than capable of disincentivising really dangerous elements, it's a matter of which elements are dangerous enough and how. Maybe the 4A should also come under that category, risk-reward makes no sense anymore, only somebody who has had that goal forever like Yuzu would even seriously train it anymore.

 

Maybe we haven't had enough time to correlate the quick progression of quads - the accumulation of multiple quads by one skater - and injuries, but there also seems to be no real effort to gather the data by ISU, and that should be done, there are no excuses for not doing that no matter which side of the fence anybody's on. But if Boyang has chronic injury issues, it adds weight to the claim that current correct techniques have been developed more for aesthetics than for safety, because he does have correct technique. If it turns out multiple quads added in quick succession cannot be done without causing serious injury, I don't even know how to think about the ethics of minors making such decisions about themselves. But figure skating is not alone in this quandary.

 

One thing though - I don't think considering Sasha Trusova right out of juniors is unfair because if skaters have such short shelf life, then their optimal year is the second year out of junior where reputation is established and they have not yet been injured for whatever reason. Sasha already had the reputation, so her first year should qualify for this discussion.

 

Also, Plushenko might not have been pushing the boundary with multiple kinds of quads, though I've read that he did jump them in training sometimes, but he did push things technically in other ways, like his quad combos that no longer make sense to maximise rewards under CoP.

 

(I would also question if Nate has got better at spins. His first few competitions this season and last, his spins have been pretty sub-par. Last season his camel was all off, this time his sit spin is off. I also question if we know about all of his injuries. Raf's post-Olympic interview indicated that Nate did have an ankle injury before that, and I will take that with a pinch of salt, but I think generally that camp has been very good at keeping injuries out of the news because it affects judges' perception of components.)

[Old Cat Lady]

17 hours ago, WinForPooh said:

Re pairs being dangerous: They did devalue quad throw jumps to discourage them, didn't they? So they are more than capable of disincentivising really dangerous elements, it's a matter of which elements are dangerous enough and how. Maybe the 4A should also come under that category, risk-reward makes no sense anymore, only somebody who has had that goal forever like Yuzu would even seriously train it anymore.

 

I did think about the devaluation of quads in pairs but I don't know as much about pairs or how people other than Duhamel (who hates it) feel about the change. I'm not sure if there was any incident that caused the move to it or if it's a purely preventive measure based on speculation.  The one thing about pairs is that even at the simplest levels, I think it's still more dangerous than singles.  Otoh, when I think about the major pairs injuries, they've all been during lifts and spins rather than throws and twists so, at least based on history, it doesn't make sense to limit 2 but not the other 2 (though obviously I'm open to being corrected since I didn't follow the sport for over a decade)

 

The 4 axel devaluation is one of the things I'm super salty about with the change in system so I guess that's one of the reasons I'm hesitant to encourage devaluing all the quads.  Though my main source of salt is it's devaluation in relation to the other jumps.  Before they make changes to the system, I think they need to gather a group of top level skaters and coaches from different nations to determine the difficulty of, not only the BV of elements, but, for example, doing a lvl 4 spin at +5 GOE vs. a 4 Lz at +2 GOE and making their final value more relational to each other.  Currently, there are significantly fewer skaters that are able to do a +5 GOE lvl 4 spin than are able to do a +2 GOE 4lz, yet the difference in value is 8.5+ points - well over double!

 

Don't know how values were decided for the various versions of COP/IJS, but retired skaters from decades ago really don't have much insight on these things unless they work closely with current skaters since they never had to do them.  

 

 

17 hours ago, WinForPooh said:

Maybe we haven't had enough time to correlate the quick progression of quads - the accumulation of multiple quads by one skater - and injuries, but there also seems to be no real effort to gather the data by ISU, and that should be done, there are no excuses for not doing that no matter which side of the fence anybody's on. But if Boyang has chronic injury issues, it adds weight to the claim that current correct techniques have been developed more for aesthetics than for safety, because he does have correct technique. If it turns out multiple quads added in quick succession cannot be done without causing serious injury, I don't even know how to think about the ethics of minors making such decisions about themselves. But figure skating is not alone in this quandary.

 

I would agree that studies should be done but parameters need to be set *before* researching - Too often people decide on the outcome they want and then look for evidence to support it. Of course, there's still the philosophical debate about an acceptable level of risk vs. allowing personal freedom.  Fair sporting principle vs. safety.  And do we differentiate between "wear and tear" damage vs. danger?  To me, pounding quads fall more under the category of greater "wear and tear" while lifts and throws fall under the category of "danger".  GOE enhancers like height/distance and speed  fall under both depending on the element.  A study would also have to include the effects of elements done at different levels.  Of course, we also have to be practical - this requires money and ISU isn't even willing to pay extra for fair judging 

 

 But another thing to think about is that with experience, people find better ways to train so theoretically, people could jump quads more safely in the future. 

 

 I also thought about the ethics of minors doing dangerous elements.  With adults, I have a general principal (in life in general) of, give them the information and let them decide if it's worth the risk.  Children can't be held to that same standard.  You can try to discourage it by banning it in juniors but they're still going to be training them in order to compete once they reach seniors, though I suppose in training people can take safety measures to minimize risk.

 

17 hours ago, WinForPooh said:

One thing though - I don't think considering Sasha Trusova right out of juniors is unfair because if skaters have such short shelf life, then their optimal year is the second year out of junior where reputation is established and they have not yet been injured for whatever reason. Sasha already had the reputation, so her first year should qualify for this discussion.

 

I'm not going to refute as I haven't looked into it myself.  But it's pretty sad if the the 2nd year really is the optimal year of competitiveness. But I've always felt that men's skating is overall more interesting stylistically than ladies skating and there's a good chance it's because ladies are so much younger and haven't had time to develop. 

 

As for the reputation thing, that's yet another thing that can get fixed with stricter standardization on judging.  Honestly, most things that people bitch about could be improved a lot by simply standardizing judging and taking more accountability measures

 

btw, I'm not saying it's unfair to consider Trusova by competitive standards because she's out of juniors (it is a sport, after all), but I disagree that a 15 year old having lower quality aspects of skating is a sign of lack of effort into working on them since, for most people, these things take time and almost no one is good at everything.   The Eteri school in general seems rather detail orientated when it comes to elements.  They're all about gaming the system.  

 

17 hours ago, WinForPooh said:

 

Also, Plushenko might not have been pushing the boundary with multiple kinds of quads, though I've read that he did jump them in training sometimes, but he did push things technically in other ways, like his quad combos that no longer make sense to maximise rewards under CoP.

 

I don't mean to undermine what Plush did do.  He was clearly the jumping class of the field in his day and, for the most part, it was the smart move (he really only lost the 2nd OG due to layout stupidity). But he himself has alluded that he didn't push himself to his personal limits.

 

17 hours ago, WinForPooh said:

(I would also question if Nate has got better at spins. His first few competitions this season and last, his spins have been pretty sub-par. 

 

His spins during grand prix were pretty awful last year and I was pissed at the GOE.  But they did improve by worlds and I think they're better this year at this time than last year at this time.  But I'm mainly comparing them to what they were at the Olympics, when they were absolutely atrocious.

[Old Cat Lady]

Now that we’re heading into GPF, thought I’d redo projections.  I changed methodology somewhat and used only Grand Prix events since this is the pool of judges that we’ll see for the important competitions. With the thought that there are natural variances within performances even when clean, I used given scores and then corrected mistakes.  

 

I only changed GOE’s for negative and 0 GOE’s.  I tried to replace the GOE with a similar element from the same competition - the thought being that I want scores from a realistic panel rather than an “ideal” score.  If there wasn’t anything comparable, I tried to replace it with a GOE that they have received before.

 

If a skater lost levels, I used the raw GOE they were given and applied it to the element with level 4

 

I used the higher BV layout but tried to use GOE’s from the event and then averaged them

 

For PCS, I used the highest PCS received in an ISU competition within the last 2 seasons for each segment.  If a skater’s PCS are still on the rise, I used whatever is their highest PCS scoring segment for both their programs or 8.5, whichever is higher. Even then, it is likely low

 

*caveats* 

Keep in mind, that these scores are likely going to be low.  Judges seem to score higher overall when there’s a truly clean program.

 

Judges often judge relatively even though they aren’t supposed to.  So once these skaters are in the same competition, the patterns are likely change.

 

Long story short - I likely wasted a lot of time so hopefully it’s at least interesting. 

 

THESE SCORES ARE NOT NECESSARILY WHAT I THINK A SKATER SHOULD GET, BUT WHAT I THINK THEY WILL GET.

 

1. Hanyu - don’t think there’s any need to say much. I, like many, was a little disappointed by double recycling but there’s no question to me that both programs are on a higher level than last year and I’m glad to be able to see them close to their potential.

 

SP:	4s, 3a, 4t/3t*
SP PCS:	48.47 - Skate Canada
FS:	4lo, 4s, 3lz, 4t, 4t/e/3f*, 3a/2t*, 3a/3t*
FS PCS:	96.4 - Skate Canada
BV:	139.35
Ave Proj Score	325.3 (Sk Can=326.53, NHK=324.08)
	328.62

In orange, is a theoretical score with a better quality 4t/3t in the SP with a GOE of 4.2 and the rest of the GOE’s the same as Skate Canada

 

2. Chen

 

SP:	4lz, 3a, 4t/3t* (changed SkAm lz GOE to 3 in spite of positive GOE because of clear visible error)
SP PCS:	46.51 - IdF
FS:	4lz, 3lz/3t, 4t/e/3f, 3a, 4s*, 4t*, 3a/2t*
PCS:	94.78 - 2019 worlds
BV:	140.75
Ave Proj Score	320.616 (SkAm = 321.51, IdF = 319.72)
Alternate layout:	SP: 4lz, 3a, 4t/3t*
	FS: 4lz, 4f, 4t/e/3f, 3a, 4s*, 4t/3t*, 3a/2t*
Proj. Score:	328.62
	Skate America GOE's, SP 4lz changed to "3"

 

Frankly, I think both programs are garbage.  Worst SP in 3 years - I actually like Nemesis and Caravan, while not my cup of tea stylistically, was at least choreographed and performed well. Rocket Man, like most rock medleys, has no interpretive depth.  But judges don’t care and his PCS continues to rise.  

 

Notice that Yuzu's current layout with a better 4t/3t projects the exact same score as Nathan's 5 quad layout with the 4lz fixed to 3 (3 is higher than his average jump GOE but lower than his highest).  Really, this comes down to the makeup of the panel and who can execute better - not just being clean, but who can have smoother landings, avoid snow and turnouts, project better on the performance, etc. all the details will matter.  Although realistically, Nathan has the edge in a 5 vs. 4 competition because this projection isn't taking into account his PCS rise and a quad has a tendency to get a higher GOE.

 

3. Shoma Uno. 

SP:	4f, 4f/2t, 3a*
SP PCS:	46.5 - 2018 Lombardia
FS:	4s, 4f, 4t/2t, 3a, 4t*, 3s/3t, 3a/e/3f*
FS PCS:	92.88 - 2019 4CC
BV:	135.78
Ave Proj Score	302.66

Had to do a lot of guessing because there were so many mistakes.  But even with degrading of quality all around, if he can land the jumps, he’s still the 3rd best skater (I didn’t do projections for Zhou or Kolyada since they didn’t skate the GP)

 

He says that he wants a coach that will support him emotionally rather than for technical expertise. I think that there’s a difference between needs and wants and Lambiel is a terrible choice for his coach. If all he wants is emotional support, he would have been better off with coach Fluffy, but it might not have been his decision.  Lambiel currently has a talented skater that’s regressed and a bunch of skaters that are never going to be at Shoma’s level. In the short term, Lambiel is better than nothing - Shoma’s regressed in his steps and spins and Lambiel can at least get those back to their previous level but Lambiel isn’t good at teaching anything that Shoma wasn’t already good at last year. Long term, hopefully Shoma finds someone who can actually help him improve from his previous level. 

 

4. Alexander Samarin

 

SP:	4lz/3t, 4f, 3a*
FS:	4lz/3t, 4f, 4t, 3a, 3a/2t*, 3lz/3t*, 3lo*
PCS:	44.12 - 2019 Europeans FS
BV:	136.63
Ave Proj Score	298.78

For whatever reason, this is the one Russia is giving the push.  Other than the 4lz, his GOE’s are pretty low for a top skater. While immensely talented, he seems just as inconsistent as Kolyada, Kolyada has a higher scoring potential, and Kolyada places highest of Russian men at worlds. But I guess the Russian fed is sick of waiting for Kolyada to fulfill his potential and figured they’d start from scratch with a new one and hope for better.

 

5. Boyang Jin

 

SP:	4lz, 4t/3t, 3a*
SP PCS:	42.32 - 2019 4cc
FS:	4lz, 4t/2t, 4t, 3a/e/3s, 3a*, 3lz/3t*, 3f*
FS PCS:	84.3 - 2019 4cc
BV:	134.54
Ave Proj Score	290.62

Currently only does 3 quads in his FS. Has lower PCS and GOE’s than Chen in spite of bigger jumps, comparable and sometimes better spins and footwork.  But he’s also much less consistent which can contribute to this. I’m going to be optimistic and say that these will rise if he can string together cleaner competitions. 

 

Part of me thinks he should be higher than Samarin because of a bigger jump arsenal and being able to perform better on the big occasions.

 

6. Dmitry Aliev

SP:	4lz/3t, 4t, 3a*
SP PCS:	43.3 - 2019 Lombardia
FS:	4lz, 4t, 4t/3t, 3f, 3a*, 3lz/3t*, 3lo/e/3s*
FS PCS:	86.36 - 2019 Cup of Russia
BV:	134.78
Ave Proj Score:	288.63

Has plateaued. Was my favorite Russian man. I love the fluidity of his movement but his programs are rather mediocre this year.  His LP especially is ill suited to his skating.

 

7. Aymoz

 

SP:	4t, 3lz/3t, 3a
SP PCS:	44.65 - 2019 AC
FS:	4t, 4t/2t, 3a, 3lo, 3a/3t*, 3f*, 3lz/e/3s*
FS PCS:	89.8 - 2019 AC
BV:	122.82
Ave Proj Score:	285.23

Programs jam packed with transitions of varying levels of success.  Jumps are frequently sloppy, which detracts from the presentation. Higher scoring potential than Brown because of the quad but Brown does everything else better.  I personally don’t like either of their LP’s. But he seems to be the one on the rise.

 

8. Jason Brown - 272.56.  Didn’t go into as much detail because I don’t consider him a real medal contender right now.  It’s unlikely that enough skaters will implode on the world stage for him to slip onto the podium and he’s prone to implode himself.  His LP is terrible. Yes, it looks good because his skating is beautiful but the program itself is not interesting.