2019/2020 Men's Skating

[Old Cat Lady]

Judging from practices and interviews, the realistic upgraded layout looks like 

FS: 4lz, 4lo, 4s, 4t, 4t-e-3f*, 3a/3t*, 3a/2t* = 98.58

SP: 4s, 3a, 4t/3t* = 46.37

BV = 95.84 + 46.37 = 144.95

Note that he continues to give up .2 in BV for one of his spins.  I know it's not much but I have to think that it wouldn't be hard for him to fix without resorting to the Biellman, which I realize he wants to do but since he normally doesn't, maybe have a back up spin that's worth full bv.

 

Who knows if 5 quad fs with upgraded jump content is realistic but that's what he's going for.  Not sure what will get dropped if he does 4A.  I'm guessing second 4t - that way he can do a second 3a/3t instead of the 3a/2t.

FS: 4a, 4lz, 4lo, 4s, 4t-e-3f*, 3a/3t*, 3a/3t* = 104.77

SP: 4s, 3a, 4t/3t* = 46.37

Total BV= 151.14

 

Autumn Classic attempted BV = 138.25. 

FS: 4lo, 4s, 3lz, 4t, 4t-e-3s*, 3a/3t*, 3a/2t* = 91.9

 

If he skated it clean and called correctly, estimated total is 328.04, assuming average PCS of 9.6 and a GOE of 4 on the jumps he missed (all other elements with GOE as scored)

Note: I changed all the "under rotated" to GOE 4 

Note 2: If he scored GOE of 4 on that Salchow and got PCS of 9.6, he would have gotten 111.73, breaking his own record

 

eta: just realized it makes more sense to add +2 GOE to all the under rotation calls since the guidelines say to deduct 1 to 2.  That makes it 322.99 if clean and average PCS of 9.6

[Old Cat Lady]

@sallycinnamon  Can you move this thread to the general skating forum?  

 

Figured it makes more sense to discuss the discipline as a whole like with the ladies thread.

 

I thought the start of the season has been ... uh... interesting so far.

 

It seems that Yuzu and Nathan are pulling away from Shoma. Or rather, Shoma is falling away from them. 

 

To me, the men's field is actually very deep, but it's really bunched up in that 2nd/3rd tier rather than at the top, like with the ladies.  Some might find the men anti-climactic because so often it's obvious who'll win, but if you look beyond the first place, it's quite unpredictable.  Kolyada's out. Boyang has shown glimpses of his best self and then crashes. YOu never know when Jason will sneak through for a medal. Sota and Keiji have the best results of their careers.  Aliev randomly has a good competition after looking terrible at test skates. Shoma's fallen from 1 of the big 3 to "the best of the rest".  Vincent's momentum has come to a grinding halt though a couple good events can bring it back. I'm actually quite sad that he withdrew from the Grand Prix - I thought the Vincent vs. Shoma match up was the 2nd most intriguing of the series.

 

Tbh, I was never as excited by Cha as most of you were, but I like his programs and he is upgrading his tech so maybe when it's stabilized he'll be more of a factor at Beijing than I thought. At Autumn Classic I was impressed by his improvements during practice but I was disappointed during actual competition.  In the juniors, Gogolev is going through growing pains it seems and didn't make GPF. 

 

At the beginning of last year, I was betting on the Beijing podium to be a battle between Boyang, Yuzu, Nathan, and Shoma. Now, I have no idea who to bet on outside of Yuzu and Nathan (if Yuzu goes, of course).

 

 

[sallycinnamon]

2 minutes ago, Old Cat Lady said:

@sallycinnamon  Can you move this thread to the general skating forum?  

 

Figured it makes more sense to discuss the discipline as a whole like with the ladies thread.

 

I thought the start of the season has been ... uh... interesting so far.

 

It seems that Yuzu and Nathan are pulling away from Shoma. Or rather, Shoma is falling away from them. 

 

To me, the men's field is actually very deep, but it's really bunched up in that 2nd/3rd tier rather than at the top, like with the ladies.  Some might find the men anti-climactic because so often it's obvious who'll win, but if you look beyond the first place, it's quite unpredictable.  Kolyada's out. Boyang has shown glimpses of his best self and then crashes. YOu never know when Jason will sneak through for a medal. Sota and Keiji have the best results of their careers.  Aliev randomly has a good competition after looking terrible at test skates. Shoma's fallen from 1 of the big 3 to "the best of the rest".  Vincent's momentum has come to a grinding halt though a couple good events can bring it back. I'm actually quite sad that he withdrew from the Grand Prix - I thought the Vincent vs. Shoma match up was the 2nd most intriguing of the series.

 

Tbh, I was never as excited by Cha as most of you were, but I like his programs and he is upgrading his tech so maybe when it's stabilized he'll be more of a factor at Beijing than I thought. At Autumn Classic I was impressed by his improvements during practice but I was disappointed during actual competition.  In the juniors, Gogolev is going through growing pains it seems and didn't make GPF. 

 

At the beginning of last year, I was betting on the Beijing podium to be a battle between Boyang, Yuzu, Nathan, and Shoma. now, I have no idea what to expect.

 

The thread is now in the General Skating Subforum. 

 

Now that Kolyada and Zhou are out of the GP Series, and Boyang couldn't skate well at SA, it can mix some things up and will give opportunities to other skaters to have a chance to qualify for GPF. Boyang showed promising form in the beginning of the season, he's usually a slow starter but I was really hoping he'll be able to show better skates at his GP events too. I hope he is not injured. Pressure may be growing on him because of Beijing. 

Competition in Japan for the 3rd spot will also be interesting to see this season.

To me it seems Cha has grown even more in the past months, he look so tall now. I really hope he'll be able to get in better from and won't struggle with injuries this season (hope dies last, I know...). It would be good if KSU doesn't send him to many competitions in Korea this season.

[Old Cat Lady]

Thanks Sally 

 

 

I also did projections for Nathan and redid Yuzu's so that methodology matches.

Same methodology as ladies

1. Scores are based on actual attempted layouts done cleanly. I had to guess a little because if a skater pops but it isn't obvious by body position, I used what I thought they were attempting based on their abilities and previous patterns. So I changed Nathan's single and double flip to a triple.

2. I calculated actual GOE received and changed the ones that were not positive (so 0's got changed as well).  If the skater received a sign, I added the max value of reduction given in the guidelines to the GOE.  If a skater landed a similar element cleanly in the same competition, I used the GOE for that element.

3. If a skater lost a level, I used the same GOE as the one received but changed the levels to 4.

4. Used highest PCS received for that portion since the beginning of last season.

 

A couple caveats to this is that often times GOE's seem to be affected not only by location and the field, but by how well the skater skates the other elements. I also question only adding +2 back to GOE for ur because so far this year, it seems that the score ends up being lower than if the skater did the same element but with no sign from the tech panel.

 

Hanyu at Autumn Classic (Rostelecom SP PCS and Worlds LP PCS). I used 4 for his salchows and loop because his 4 toe that was called clean got 4.2 and it's the closest reference to what this panel would have given him if they were clean.

	Actual TES	Actual PCS	Deductions	Actual Total
SP	53.03	46.35	-1	98.38
LP	90.97	89.7		180.67
				279.05
	Proj TES	Proj PCS	Deductions	Proj Total
SP	62.73	48.09		110.82
LP	115.26	95.84		211.10
				321.92
			BV:	138.25

 

 

Chen at Japan Open (Worlds PCS)

	Actual TES	Actual PCS	Deductions	Actual Total
LP	98.67	91.16		189.83
	Proj TES	Proj PCS	Deductions	Proj Total
LP	114.29	94.78		209.07

 

Chen at Skate America (actual PCS received for SP and worlds PCS for LP)

	Actual TES	Actual PCS	Deductions	Actual Total
SP	56.21	46.5		102.71
LP	102.38	94		196.38
				299.09
	Proj TES	Proj PCS	Deductions	Proj Total
SP	58.24	46.50		104.74
LP	122.55	94.78		217.33
				322.06
			BV:	144.21

[Salior]

I'm rewatching Yuzu's 2014 Olympic performances and I realised something.

 

When Yuzu first started, he didn't put as much emphasis on skating quality as he did today, although he did show an above average talent in it. Yuzu was obsessed with quad jumps, until he saw Patrick's deep edges in his first competition with him, and went "Omg, I didn't know that was possible!" He proceeded to follow Patrick around the rink to observe the edges and forgot about his own practice, which made him flopped his first GP in senior lol. 

 

Basically I think the ENTIRE reason why Yuzu and Brian focused so MUCH on transitions and skating quality, is that they were NEEDED to beat Patrick Chan, who was then seen as almost unbeatable. Back then the technical elements weren't that high, and the stingy PCS marks made a huge difference in the final outcome of the scores. So Yuzu worked hard to earn every bit of that PCS, and became where he is today, to the extent that they became something like a part of his identity that he doesn't want to sacrifice.

 

Fast forward a few years later, he nearly forgot about them during his obsession with the quad loop. He thought that there's no point if he cannot land his jump, ie. a complete program is contingent on perfect jumps. He held on onto this almost maniacal fixation until the Lutz injury, where he reversed this stance during the Olympics, because it was his skating skills that saved him when he could not perform high base level jumps. 

 

And today we kind of have a different scenario, where PCS becomes more inflated and irrelevant compared to the TES. Yuzu noticed this trend, but is assured by SC that he was still right not to sacrifice his transitions for more stable, high base value jumps. Back when PCS still has a big role and is relevant to winning, Patrick set the bar for Yuzu to raise his own skating skills and transitions. Now that that advantage is taken away by high TES, I fear that Yuzu might not be able to play the role Patrick did. 

 

About Nate, it is true that he still has a long way to go for SS and Transitions, and that his TES isn't that high recently, but we also have to keep in mind that he is not currently training full time, and that he intends to do so the year before the Olympics. Patrick was complacent because he thought he had everything he needed to win - the best ss in the field, a decent quad toe. But he didn't expect Yuzu to be rewarded scores that could make up for those with his crazy high quality transitions and 3A (The R&J 1.0 was called a demon for the insane transitions I heard lol). Although I'm happy that Yuzu was still rewarded in SC, I don't want him to think that the scoring scene has not changed and he didn't need to adjust for it, to make the same mistake as Patrick, because he didn't expect his advantage to be diminished, and for scores to be awarded to rivals at places he didn't think much of.

 

Nate is still the person who did six quads in the FS, and Yuzu isn't 19 anymore - he's now 10 kg heavier with a lot more injuries, both of which doesn't help much in pushing his physical limits. He might be able to win now with his current layout, but if he intends to continue winning, there's no doubt that he needs the 4A and maybe the 4Lz. There's only so much he can do if he insists on putting difficult transitions that lowers the stability of the jumps AND up the tech content. I fear that this will be the situation when it's time for him to choose, that he cannot want everything without risking his health excessively. He is not the same boy at 15 year old who could pick himself up after spraining his ankle and keep training quad toe over and over again. 

 

I can only hope that he will choose wisely, between winning, his ideals, and his health. I wish that he didn't have to choose 2 out of the 3, but this is what I'm observing, and may I be proven wrong. 

 

 

Edit: This ties in very well with his recent expressed opinion in the interview below 

 

[shanshani]

On 10/23/2019 at 6:02 PM, Old Cat Lady said:

Thanks Sally 

 

 

I also did projections for Nathan and redid Yuzu's so that methodology matches.

Same methodology as ladies

1. Scores are based on actual attempted layouts done cleanly. I had to guess a little because if a skater pops but it isn't obvious by body position, I used what I thought they were attempting based on their abilities and previous patterns. So I changed Nathan's single and double flip to a triple.

2. I calculated actual GOE received and changed the ones that were not positive (so 0's got changed as well).  If the skater received a sign, I added the max value of reduction given in the guidelines to the GOE.  If a skater landed a similar element cleanly in the same competition, I used the GOE for that element.

3. If a skater lost a level, I used the same GOE as the one received but changed the levels to 4.

4. Used highest PCS received for that portion since the beginning of last season.

 

A couple caveats to this is that often times GOE's seem to be affected not only by location and the field, but by how well the skater skates the other elements. I also question only adding +2 back to GOE for ur because so far this year, it seems that the score ends up being lower than if the skater did the same element but with no sign from the tech panel.

 

Hanyu at Autumn Classic (Rostelecom SP PCS and Worlds LP PCS). I used 4 for his salchows and loop because his 4 toe that was called clean got 4.2 and it's the closest reference to what this panel would have given him if they were clean.

	Actual TES	Actual PCS	Deductions	Actual Total
SP	53.03	46.35	-1	98.38
LP	90.97	89.7		180.67
				279.05
	Proj TES	Proj PCS	Deductions	Proj Total
SP	62.73	48.09		110.82
LP	115.26	95.84		211.10
				321.92
			BV:	138.25

 

 

Chen at Japan Open (Worlds PCS)

	Actual TES	Actual PCS	Deductions	Actual Total
LP	98.67	91.16		189.83
	Proj TES	Proj PCS	Deductions	Proj Total
LP	114.29	94.78		209.07

 

Chen at Skate America (actual PCS received for SP and worlds PCS for LP)

	Actual TES	Actual PCS	Deductions	Actual Total
SP	56.21	46.5		102.71
LP	102.38	94		196.38
				299.09
	Proj TES	Proj PCS	Deductions	Proj Total
SP	58.24	46.50		104.74
LP	122.55	94.78		217.33
				322.06
			BV:	144.21/

While we can’t guarantee that Yuzu will continue to receive the kind of judging he received at Skate Canada, surely this should be adjusted upward now?  After all, he got 322 despite having a wonky 4T3T in the SP, bad landing on 4Lo in the FS, and then weak landings on the 3A combos too. The Sal in the FS could have been a bit better as well, it wasn’t quite as nicely landed as his best, it could have gotten an extra point too.

 

Nate will probably upgrade by Worlds, though idk what will happen at GPF. Ultimately, I think it’s just going to come down to who lands their jumps. If both are clean, well, who knows.

 

14 minutes ago, Salior said:

I'm rewatching Yuzu's 2014 Olympic performances and I realised something.

 

When Yuzu first started, he didn't put as much emphasis on skating quality as he did today, although he did show an above average talent in it. Yuzu was obsessed with quad jumps, until he saw Patrick's deep edges in his first competition with him, and went "Omg, I didn't know that was possible!" He proceeded to follow Patrick around the rink to observe the edges and forgot about his own practice, which made him flopped his first GP in senior lol. 

 

Basically I think the ENTIRE reason why Yuzu and Brian focused so MUCH on transitions and skating quality, is that they were NEEDED to beat Patrick Chan, who was then seen as almost unbeatable. Back then the technical elements weren't that high, and the stingy PCS marks made a huge difference in the final outcome of the scores. So Yuzu worked hard to earn every bit of that PCS, and became where he is today, to the extent that they became something like a part of his identity that he doesn't want to sacrifice.

 

Fast forward a few years later, he nearly forgot about them during his obsession with the quad loop. He thought that there's no point if he cannot land his jump, ie. a complete program is contingent on perfect jumps. He held on onto this almost maniacal fixation until the Lutz injury, where he reversed this stance during the Olympics, because it was his skating skills that saved him when he could not perform high base level jumps. 

 

And today we kind of have a different scenario, where PCS becomes more inflated and irrelevant compared to the TES. Yuzu noticed this trend, but is assured by SC that he was still right not to sacrifice his transitions for more stable, high base value jumps. Back when PCS still has a big role and is relevant to winning, Patrick set the bar for Yuzu to raise his own skating skills and transitions. Now that that advantage is taken away by high TES, I fear that Yuzu might not be able to play the role Patrick did. 

 

About Nate, it is true that he still has a long way to go for SS and Transitions, and that his TES isn't that high recently, but we also have to keep in mind that he is not currently training full time, and that he intends to do so the year before the Olympics. Patrick was complacent because he thought he had everything he needed to win - the best ss in the field, a decent quad toe. But he didn't expect Yuzu to be rewarded scores that could make up for those with his crazy high quality transitions and 3A (The R&J 1.0 was called a demon for the insane transitions I heard lol). Although I'm happy that Yuzu was still rewarded in SC, I don't want him to think that the scoring scene has not changed and he didn't need to adjust for it, to make the same mistake as Patrick, because he didn't expect his advantage to be diminished, and for scores to be awarded to rivals at places he didn't think much of.

 

Nate is still the person who did six quads in the FS, and Yuzu isn't 19 anymore - he's now 10 kg heavier with a lot more injuries, both of which doesn't help much in pushing his physical limits. He might be able to win now with his current layout, but if he intends to continue winning, there's no doubt that he needs the 4A and maybe the 4Lz. There's only so much he can do if he insists on putting difficult transitions that lowers the stability of the jumps AND up the tech content. I fear that this will be the situation when it's time for him to choose, that he cannot want everything without risking his health excessively. He is not the same boy at 15 year old who could pick himself up after spraining his ankle and keep training quad toe over and over again. 

 

I can only hope that he will choose wisely, between winning, his ideals, and his health. I wish that he didn't have to choose 2 out of the 3, but this is what I'm observing, and may I be proven wrong. 

 

 

Edit: This ties in very well with his recent expressed opinion in the interview below 

 

I think Yuzu knows a tech upgrade is pretty much going to have to happen because of the way the judging works now. Plus, he does want to land the 4A anyway.

 

It’s true that things were different during the Sochi quad. Patrick Chan’s PCS would save him even if he flopped all over the place. It doesn’t work that way now. Despite Patrick’s remarkable SS he would probably only be a couple points above his competitors in PCS if he were still competing and at the top of his game (of course, when he fell behind his PCS dropped.) While it’s a good thing that we’re no longer in a situation where PCS can save a disaster skate, it’s gone way too far in the other direction. Now the difference between top competitors’ PCS is the difference between a single high quality and so-so quad (which is of course ridiculous). 

 

Anyway, imagine being a competitor in this situation, especially someone who’s been in the sport for as long as Yuzu. The rules have changed beneath his feet, and without any sort of official declaration, unlike the changes to the scoring system post-Pyeongchang. Maybe in a few years the judging trends will change again, and we’ll go back to rewarding quality SS and TR. Of course it’s confusing, because the rules say one thing but the actual judging says another. The rules say high scoring programs need lots of difficult transitions, that SS is judged by x y z qualities, etc. etc., but the way the judges actually judge has little relation to those rules, and instead has more to do with whatever judges collectively decide to be extra impressed with this year. For the past few seasons, that’s been big jumps. Before, it was SS and TR. The terrible judging isn’t just unfair, it’s actively confusing to competitors and coaches. The rules tell you to do one thing, but the scores tell you to do something else. Do you listen to the rules or the scores? What if the scores change on you? The ISU computer model definition thing shows a lutz jump as a jump with a deep inside edge, taken off from a clean toe-pick with minimal PR, but the scores show that you’re way better off jumping a lutz with a shallow outside edge, blade assistance and 180 degrees PR. If you’re a coach, do you teach the one or the other? If you go with the clean toe-pick, you are might future-proof your students in case the ISU ever starts deciding to call PR, but in the meanwhile they are having lower success rates on the jump than the people who go with the PR technique and have a way harder time ever achieving quad lutz. If you go with the PR technique, your students might get away with it now, but one day perhaps tech panels will start coming after them. 

[WinForPooh]

You know something I noticed? Judges carry the impression created by the previous element over to the next one. Like Skate Canada Origin - if that 4Lo hadn't had a 3-turn out of it, I'm pretty sure that 4S wouldn't have been capped at three. But by the time the 3As rolled around, Yuzu had basically nailed the 4T, 3Lz, 4T combo, so the 3A combos, especially the second one, kinda got higher GOE than they would've if judged on the same scale as the one the 4S was judged on.

 

If Yuzu brings the 4A or 4Lz and lands it perfectly as the first jump of his skate, I think even if he lands the rest of his jumps without his usual flow, he might get higher GOEs.

[Salior]

18 minutes ago, shanshani said:

While we can’t guarantee that Yuzu will continue to receive the kind of judging he received at Skate Canada, surely this should be adjusted upward now?  After all, he got 322 despite having a wonky 4T3T in the SP, bad landing on 4Lo in the FS, and then weak landings on the 3A combos too. The Sal in the FS could have been a bit better as well, it wasn’t quite as nicely landed as his best, it could have gotten an extra point too.

 

Nate will probably upgrade by Worlds, though idk what will happen at GPF. Ultimately, I think it’s just going to come down to who lands their jumps. If both are clean, well, who knows.

 

I think Yuzu knows a tech upgrade is pretty much going to have to happen because of the way the judging works now. Plus, he does want to land the 4A anyway.

 

It’s true that things were different during the Sochi quad. Patrick Chan’s PCS would save him even if he flopped all over the place. It doesn’t work that way now. Despite Patrick’s remarkable SS he would probably only be a couple points above his competitors in PCS if he were still competing and at the top of his game (of course, when he fell behind his PCS dropped.) While it’s a good thing that we’re no longer in a situation where PCS can save a disaster skate, it’s gone way too far in the other direction. Now the difference between top competitors’ PCS is the difference between a single high quality and so-so quad (which is of course ridiculous). 

 

Anyway, imagine being a competitor in this situation, especially someone who’s been in the sport for as long as Yuzu. The rules have changed beneath his feet, and without any sort of official declaration, unlike the changes to the scoring system post-Pyeongchang. Maybe in a few years the judging trends will change again, and we’ll go back to rewarding quality SS and TR. Of course it’s confusing, because the rules say one thing but the actual judging says another. The rules say high scoring programs need lots of difficult transitions, that SS is judged by x y z qualities, etc. etc., but the way the judges actually judge has little relation to those rules, and instead has more to do with whatever judges collectively decide to be extra impressed with this year. For the past few seasons, that’s been big jumps. Before, it was SS and TR. The terrible judging isn’t just unfair, it’s actively confusing to competitors and coaches. The rules tell you to do one thing, but the scores tell you to do something else. Do you listen to the rules or the scores? What if the scores change on you? The ISU computer model definition thing shows a lutz jump as a jump with a deep inside edge, taken off from a clean toe-pick with minimal PR, but the scores show that you’re way better off jumping a lutz with a shallow outside edge, blade assistance and 180 degrees PR. If you’re a coach, do you teach the one or the other? If you go with the clean toe-pick, you are might future-proof your students in case the ISU ever starts deciding to call PR, but in the meanwhile they are having lower success rates on the jump than the people who go with the PR technique and have a way harder time ever achieving quad lutz. If you go with the PR technique, your students might get away with it now, but one day perhaps tech panels will start coming after them. 

 

While I agree with everything you said, it seems like some ISU officers are pushing in the other direction, that appearance matters more than what is beneath the surface. Like iirc some officers are proposing to remove SS and Transitions as a PCS element????!!!!??? The rationale behind the post-Pyeongchang change too, that it seemed like one of the reason was because the audience didn't understand why skaters would fall and still win, so they wanted a scoring system that reflects more about "What You See is What You Get", which is BS imo but still apparently some people held that belief?

 

The entire trend with scoring, the decline of focus on quality skating but more on flashy jumps that can easily be "quantified" and seen as separate elements in the scoresheet, that the PCS is so capped right now it cannot differentiate the best among the skaters. Ari's comments too, that "we shouldn't change the scoring system because the audience should be able to watch without having to calculate numbers in their heads", and the fact that he successfully pushed this ISU Award thing as well as his reputation for treating Yuzu as his cash cow(?) makes me worried that THESE kind of people are holding power and influencing ISU. Some posts were shared about ISU's losses as well, so I fear that they are pushing for short term monetary gains by "dumbing" down the sport and creating hype, because if they penalise the skaters doing "difficult" elements then there'll be less "attention" and sensationalisation over the scene. What generates more clicks, "15-year-old Russian girls pulverise veterans with the most difficult element" and "Nathan Chen wins with most difficult jump", or "Yuzuru Hanyu wins with exceptional skating quality?" 

[Salior]

9 minutes ago, WinForPooh said:

You know something I noticed? Judges carry the impression created by the previous element over to the next one. Like Skate Canada Origin - if that 4Lo hadn't had a 3-turn out of it, I'm pretty sure that 4S wouldn't have been capped at three. But by the time the 3As rolled around, Yuzu had basically nailed the 4T, 3Lz, 4T combo, so the 3A combos, especially the second one, kinda got higher GOE than they would've if judged on the same scale as the one the 4S was judged on.

 

If Yuzu brings the 4A or 4Lz and lands it perfectly as the first jump of his skate, I think even if he lands the rest of his jumps without his usual flow, he might get higher GOEs.

 

This. I think Rhythmic Skating have split panel for PCS and Tech so they can focus, Half Pipe discards the top and bottom marks so they get less bias, and yet figure skating can do none of these? They lost their chance to make things right during the post-Pyeongchang scoring change, and now with people like Ari campaigning against further changes I don't know how they're going to fix this 

[WinForPooh]

14 minutes ago, Salior said:

 

This. I think Rhythmic Skating have split panel for PCS and Tech so they can focus, Half Pipe discards the top and bottom marks so they get less bias, and yet figure skating can do none of these? They lost their chance to make things right during the post-Pyeongchang scoring change, and now with people like Ari campaigning against further changes I don't know how they're going to fix this 

 

Well, figure skating also discards the top and bottom marks for each element and components. That's why bloc judging is such a thing.

[Salior]

1 minute ago, WinForPooh said:

 

Well, figure skating also discards the top and bottom marks for each element and components. That's why bloc judging is such a thing.

 

It does? That's good news then, I was under the impression that it doesn't. Why don't they strike out the mark in the score sheets like halfpipe then... so confusing

[WinForPooh]

6 minutes ago, Salior said:

 

It does? That's good news then, I was under the impression that it doesn't. Why don't they strike out the mark in the score sheets like halfpipe then... so confusing

 

They don't strike them out but they don't count towards the factored average in the actual mark awarded column. That's why the SP 3A got perfect GOE, it did have one +4 but it was dropped. But I discovered they don't do that in the TES box we see during the skates for big competitions, the 3A had a 3.89 GOE in that instead of the 4 (factored +5 for 3A) it finally got in the final score. The correction is made after the skate, I guess.

[shanshani]

1 hour ago, WinForPooh said:

You know something I noticed? Judges carry the impression created by the previous element over to the next one. Like Skate Canada Origin - if that 4Lo hadn't had a 3-turn out of it, I'm pretty sure that 4S wouldn't have been capped at three. But by the time the 3As rolled around, Yuzu had basically nailed the 4T, 3Lz, 4T combo, so the 3A combos, especially the second one, kinda got higher GOE than they would've if judged on the same scale as the one the 4S was judged on.

 

If Yuzu brings the 4A or 4Lz and lands it perfectly as the first jump of his skate, I think even if he lands the rest of his jumps without his usual flow, he might get higher GOEs.

I’m not sure this is entirely true, the 4S wasn’t 100% stable on the landing, so it’s fair for it to be graded a little lower than his best 4S’s (well, at least if we don’t take other skaters’ inflated GOEs into account). At least, I wouldn’t have given it a 5 either. 3As, well, idk about that, maybe your theory is right there. I do think there’s an effect that when the judges get “excited” they start throwing GOEs out like candy. 

 

1 hour ago, Salior said:

 

While I agree with everything you said, it seems like some ISU officers are pushing in the other direction, that appearance matters more than what is beneath the surface. Like iirc some officers are proposing to remove SS and Transitions as a PCS element????!!!!??? The rationale behind the post-Pyeongchang change too, that it seemed like one of the reason was because the audience didn't understand why skaters would fall and still win, so they wanted a scoring system that reflects more about "What You See is What You Get", which is BS imo but still apparently some people held that belief?

 

The entire trend with scoring, the decline of focus on quality skating but more on flashy jumps that can easily be "quantified" and seen as separate elements in the scoresheet, that the PCS is so capped right now it cannot differentiate the best among the skaters. Ari's comments too, that "we shouldn't change the scoring system because the audience should be able to watch without having to calculate numbers in their heads", and the fact that he successfully pushed this ISU Award thing as well as his reputation for treating Yuzu as his cash cow(?) makes me worried that THESE kind of people are holding power and influencing ISU. Some posts were shared about ISU's losses as well, so I fear that they are pushing for short term monetary gains by "dumbing" down the sport and creating hype, because if they penalise the skaters doing "difficult" elements then there'll be less "attention" and sensationalisation over the scene. What generates more clicks, "15-year-old Russian girls pulverise veterans with the most difficult element" and "Nathan Chen wins with most difficult jump", or "Yuzuru Hanyu wins with exceptional skating quality?" 

 

That’s stupid, if true re: ISU officers. Lots of sports have a “fall and still win” thing going on—gymnastics, ski jumping, whatever, it’s not that hard to explain. Also, while casual viewers may not be able to explain in technical terms why they like a certain skater’s skating better than others, a skater’s SS still has a huge impact on the impression a viewer gets of a skate. No one is able to skate a gorgeous program without solid SS, SS is the foundation of artistry. And while I think headlines about Sasha might get more clicks, complete skaters are what get people to actually follow the sport. 

 

Anyway, this is getting a little far from men’s skating. To bring it back on topic, it’ll be interesting to see what Shoma gets at IdF. I would like to see Nate’s PCS scores go down to reasonable levels that actually reflect his skating and Shoma outscore Nathan in PCS (though obviously not on TES, assuming a similar level of cleanliness), but that’s unlikely to happen. I think Shoma is really suffering from judges becoming unfriendly towards him because of his lackluster results recently. Not that I really liked his scores that much before either (too much GOE), but if clean him and Nate should be more evenly matched than the judging will inevitably suggest.

[Salior]

8 minutes ago, shanshani said:

I’m not sure this is entirely true, the 4S wasn’t 100% stable on the landing, so it’s fair for it to be graded a little lower than his best 4S’s (well, at least if we don’t take other skaters’ inflated GOEs into account). At least, I wouldn’t have given it a 5 either. 3As, well, idk about that, maybe your theory is right there. I do think there’s an effect that when the judges get “excited” they start throwing GOEs out like candy. 

 

 

That’s stupid, if true re: ISU officers. Lots of sports have a “fall and still win” thing going on—gymnastics, ski jumping, whatever, it’s not that hard to explain. Also, while casual viewers may not be able to explain in technical terms why they like a certain skater’s skating better than others, a skater’s SS still has a huge impact on the impression a viewer gets of a skate. No one is able to skate a gorgeous program without solid SS, SS is the foundation of artistry. And while I think headlines about Sasha might get more clicks, complete skaters are what get people to actually follow the sport. 

 

Anyway, this is getting a little far from men’s skating. To bring it back on topic, it’ll be interesting to see what Shoma gets at IdF. I would like to see Nate’s PCS scores go down to reasonable levels that actually reflect his skating and Shoma outscore Nathan in PCS (though obviously not on TES, assuming a similar level of cleanliness), but that’s unlikely to happen. I think Shoma is really suffering from judges becoming unfriendly towards him because of his lackluster results recently. Not that I really liked his scores that much before either (too much GOE), but if clean him and Nate should be more evenly matched than the judging will inevitably suggest.

 

Yea their interviews are rage-inducing, I can’t believe the future direction of ISU is in their hands. People like Ari and the officer who wants to change PCS seems to be very under-knowledged about skating and care more about the appearance of skating than anything else, and yet they hold enough influence to change ISU according to the way they want.
 

I think this IDF will lay bare their true intentions, based on how they score their skaters. Looking back at old scoresheets of men’s, they have the tendency to narrow the pcs gap between top skaters for no reason at all. 

 

 

[Old Cat Lady]

2 hours ago, WinForPooh said:

You know something I noticed? Judges carry the impression created by the previous element over to the next one.

 

Yes, I've noticed that too.  That's what I meant when I wrote that skaters' marks are often affected by how they perform other elements.  It doesn't always happen, but there is somewhat of a tendency to let an overall impression override intellectual analysis. 

 

44 minutes ago, shanshani said:

I’m not sure this is entirely true, the 4S wasn’t 100% stable on the landing, so it’s fair for it to be graded a little lower than his best 4S’s (well, at least if we don’t take other skaters’ inflated GOEs into account). At least, I wouldn’t have given it a 5 either. 

 

While I agree the 4s wasn't perfect, I think the strength of the first element nudges the score upward or downward.  I don't think the impression left by other aspects of the skate will tip it from a 3 to a 5, but I do think it can affect it 1 GOE point up or down. Though I also feel that none of the jumps were landed at his best quality so I don't have issue with any of his scores (unless you compare with what Nate got).

 

2 hours ago, shanshani said:

While we can’t guarantee that Yuzu will continue to receive the kind of judging he received at Skate Canada, surely this should be adjusted upward now?  

 

I actually did the Skate Canada projections but haven't posted them yet.  I used to do max projections, but I think most performances have at least some up and down and so I think "correcting" mistakes rather than doing a "best of" is slightly more accurate, though in the end, I think it'll just come down to who skates clean. 

 

In the case of Autumn Classic, I figured it was a little low because multiple elements were lower quality, if not outright mistakes.

 

The Skate Canada projections are done with the PCS Yuzu actually received since they are new personal bests. Keep in mind that since I only correct level losses and GOE 0 or less, I kept the 4t/3t SP GOE.  A cleaner landing on that would likely have gained him another 2 points. I changed his loop to 3.14, which is what his salchow got. I also think his PCS will still go up

 

	Actual TES	Actual PCS	Deductions	Actual Total
SP	61.13	48.47		109.6
LP	116.59	96.4		212.99
				322.59
SP	Proj TES	Proj PCS	Deductions	Proj Total
LP	61.77	48.47		110.24
	120.04	96.40		216.44
				326.67
			BV:	139.35