river

6 minutes ago, SitTwizzle said:

In the Barcelona survey, they analysed sewage water samples, a March 12th sample was positive (as well as December samples in Torino and Milano).

That study is still undergoing peer review and has not been published. Other scientists have cautioned (rightfully so) that it is entirely possible that there was a lab error in the testing. January 2020 I’ll believe. March 2019 defies logic. I’m extremely skeptical for now.

2 hours ago, SitTwizzle said:

I had noted, but maybe not written here, that a French radiology clinic (in Mulhouse, an early "hot spot") had had the good idea of checking its stock of lung radios from last year, as the SARS-CoV 2 often make rather typical lung lesions, rarely found otherwise. They found one case in October (which could be from another cause after all), around ten in November, and dozens in December.

In Barcelona (Spain) they have found some cases as early as March 2019, and it seems there are other places.

That is, the virus has been around some time already, endemic, has exploded as an epidemic at different moments in different countries, and should go back to endemic (as it seems to have done in some countries) as others diseases did.

The most recent article I can find only shows an 88% positive predictive value for chest X-ray for COVID-19. I suspect all of those cases prior to the emergence of COVID-19 in China are false positives. It’s much more plausible that this is a recent disease that spread. Endemic diseases don’t suddenly flare up out of nowhere like COVID-19 has.

22 minutes ago, SitTwizzle said:

I don't know state by state, but US have recently increased the daily tests from 400.000 to nearly 650.000, an increase of some 60% in tests. So an increase of around 40% in the total numbers of positive cases found, rather means less real cases (as the rate of positive cases lowers, yesterday "only" 6.75%),  and an adequate response to the epidemics, intensive testing being generally crucial to address it.

Though (but I'm not an epidemiologist) this doesn't mean the disease have already become an endemics either. It is on the way.

There are areas of the US that are exceeding their ICU capacity, and as we’re reopening, many cities’ hospital admissions are spiking again. Due to the fragmented nature of the US’s COVID-19 response, it’s probably more useful to look at our data on a state-by-state basis. Some states are doing well, some are on the brink of a crisis.

@yuzuangel Fortunately, I live in an area with high testing levels, low prevalence, and aggressive contact tracing. My rink has limited the number of skaters allowed on ice at any time. I was a bit apprehensive about going at first, but it really does seem to be relatively safe for the time being. Obviously, if our cases start spiking, I’ll stop going... but until then, it was such a relief to get back on the ice for a bit.

Looks like the base values and GOE changes for next season are on hold, according to the new ISU communication.

Quote

Considering the worldwide COVID-19 developments and the slow re-opening of ice rinks and training activities and also based on feedback received from ISU Members, the Council decided to suspend with immediate effect the above-mentioned ISU Communications 2323 and 2324. The corresponding previous ISU Communications 2253 and 2254 remain basically in force. The Council, in cooperation with the Single & Pair Skating Technical Committee, is currently evaluating whether and to what extent some clarifications and minor adjustments to ISU Communications 2253 and 2254 would be necessary, and if so, will issue a new ISU Communication shortly.

"...based on feedback received from ISU Members..."  So what they're saying is that nobody thought having loop, flip, and lutz worth the same base value and adding yet another degree of under-rotation call to an already overly-complex and overly-subjective scoring system was a good idea?

I managed to get an hour of ice time yesterday. I didn't even try to jump or spin, just worked on moves for the full hour to re-familiarize myself with the ice. Turns out skating involves some serious muscles. I am so sore today after not being able to skate for three months and then trying to pick things back up where I left off. (Also, my rink is currently doing all levels at the same time, as opposed to the usual low-level sessions I skate, and it was my first experience dodging people working on getting their triples back after the lockdown. Slightly terrifying.)

13 minutes ago, Ririka said:

Holy shit lucky af. I would genuinely have died 

It wasn't as exciting as you'd think, to be honest. The novelty wore off after a few minutes. When he's off the ice and not trying to be the center of attention, he's human like anyone else.

18 minutes ago, FlyingCamel said:

 

I think as Yuzu said himself, he thrives under pressure. He must be undergoing SO much pressure every single day - the hope of the entire nation, the knowledge that all eyes of the media are on him and expecting him to do well, fans from all over the world that traveled far just to watch him, the fact that he can't afford mistakes as he is already underscored even when he skates flawlessly, his own perfectionism... sooo many factors just related to his skating. And outside of skating he has the added pressure of his university studies, the pressure for him to appear perfect in front of the media+all the fan cameras on him every moment... I really don't know how he does all that! I just hope that he knows we all love him so much, whether he skates clean or not... and that this knowledge will give him some comfort.

 

Talking about Yuzu on planes... won't it be awkward if he happens to be seated near or even next to a fan, or someone who knows him?

Fans generally tend to leave him alone on planes from what I’ve heard. I’ve been on a flight with him once (and sat quite close to him, actually) and nobody bothered him. And he was sitting next to one of the people he travels with, so no worries about him having to sit next to a fan. He’s got the  travel situation managed pretty well, it seems.

16 minutes ago, Marlenchen said:

Thanks for this cute glossary

For someone who was never really into figure skating, this is really helpful.

Before anyone asks, how I ended up on here, a cute video of Yuzuru showed up randomly in my Youtube recomondations, and now I joined the famdom

Hello and welcome! I think a lot of us fell down the Youtube rabbit hole one day and never came back.

The glossary does need an update in some important ways, though. Yuzu finally got his 4CC gold and had his season’s best score at Skate Canada - seems like 19-20 was the season for curse breaking! 

38 minutes ago, Lunna said:

ohhhh... white pants looked gorgeous on him! but what doesn't? 

Is everyone forgetting about the Xylitol outfits? I hope they pay him a truly mind-boggling amount of money to wear those in public.
 

(And then they always photoshop him within an inch of his life, to add insult to injury. How they expect to improve on perfection, I don’t know.)

I ran into one of the directors of my skating club the other day at the grocery store - rumor has it my rink may be reopening some freestyle sessions in the next week or two, max of 10 on the ice. My skates and I are ready whenever they do finally get to reopen. But will I actually remember how to do anything?

4 minutes ago, yumeaki said:

 

Dermatologist will say do not touch your face often with your hands unless you have  washed your hands. 

Of course someone has a different complexion from normal mankind so a diff rule applies. 

Dermatologists would also probably say not to wipe your face with the same towel that you just wiped your skate blades with, but apparently Yuzu is just exempt from all of these rules. It’s not fair. 

Good timing on reviving the thread! I had a dream recently that I was sitting in the arena while skaters were testing their music (but not during an official practice session???), and Yuzu came over and asked me if I could hear his music okay from my seat. Then we chatted about the sound quality in the arena for a bit. Some of the conversation was in Japanese, so I guess my brain was just working on reinforcing some grammar points I learned recently?

I mean, it's a solid 8/10 for realism, I suppose. (Yuzu is a huge audiophile, after all, and we all know how much he cares about sound quality.) But maybe not terribly interesting...

5 hours ago, rockstaryuzu said:

In an amusing twist, this week, fully 10 weeks after the pandemic was declared, my hospital has decreed universal masking the order of the day... because a patient complained about seeing us all walking the halls with no masks on. 

 

We went from people getting reprimanded for wearing their PPE away from their clinical work areas ( in the first week)  to being handed masks to wear as we come in the front door every morning  while the virus is on the wane, more or less.

 

And the provincial government just extended emergency orders another two weeks til June 19th, mainly because Toronto is still a hotspot. I sure hope Yuzu stays the heck away from it for the time being. 

We just added mandatory face shields for all patient contact. Universal masking has been required for quite some time in the hospital. But naturally, until masks were mandatory, anyone wearing one by choice was reprimanded. It scared the patients and might cause our patient satisfaction rates to go down. (In case you didn't know, a portion of American hospital reimbursement is based on our patient satisfaction scores.) At least now we have enough N95 masks to get a new one every 5 shifts, or if you wore it around a COVID-19 positive or suspected positive patient, and we get a new procedure mask every day. Of course, outside the hospital, I'd say only 20% or so of people in my town are wearing masks. I live in a high-rise apartment building and they haven't even made masks mandatory in the elevators. It's unsettling, to say the least. But of course, my state is reopening, even though we don't meet CDC criteria to do so.

2 hours ago, SitTwizzle said:

When I entered the scientific section of my high school in France, decades ago, the Maths teacher, aware of this problem (which has worsened since) used to start the first year by two weeks of study of the same simple logic. Quite useful even for those supposed to have at least some basics.

Well, logic is the basis of mathematics. I had to take a semester-long course on formal logic as part of my math degree. It was a prerequisite for any upper-division math classes. Those of us on the pure mathematics side of the department (as opposed to the applied mathematicians or statisticians) always thought that we fit in better with the philosophy department than with the science departments!

2 hours ago, SitTwizzle said:

 

 

Thank you! 

And still about 4A and the short program rule, can it make the required "triple or quadruple" solo jump? (As it cannot be the Axel element.)

It would make a "special Axel short program". 

Sorry if my question is stupid.

Sure - it could be the solo quad. (Or in the combo, but the thought of that... )

The risk of doing that is that it needs to be very stable to avoid having invalid jumps. If he pops to a single Axel, he gets no points for it, much like at 2019 Worlds when he popped his solo quad to a double. Popping it to a 3A would then make his solo 3A invalid (I think?) due to it being a repeated jump, or force him to do a 2A instead for his planned Axel (and use the 3A as a solo triple) which he apparently can no longer do. (Edit: or I suppose he could YOLO a different solo quad where he has the 3A planned.) He could pop it to a 2A and it wouldn’t cause any layout issues, but it would be a huge decrease in BV. (But oh, the irony if he did that.) Overall, unless the 4A gets incredibly stable, it probably won’t be worth the risk to have it in the short, IMO.

32 minutes ago, SitTwizzle said:

On Team Russia, @rubyblue posted an interview of Serafima Sakhanovich, and reflecting on their considering that someone learning a quad usually loses the corresponding triple, I am now afraid when Yuzuru Hanyu jumps his quad Axel in competitiion, he may somehow lose his wonderful triple axels? 

Plus, he knows that he has to keep the 3A in good shape too. Senior men have to have either a 2A or 3A in their short program. Yuzu’s smart, he knows better than to put that gorgeous 3A of his at risk.

8 hours ago, memae said:

We haven't seen them both skate clean head-to-head since... well, I'm struggling to remember but it'll probably be back when Nathan was new to senior (but even then, he had that trickster of a 3A out to get him so maybe it hasn't actually happened).

It's never happened, actually. This is not an exhaustive list of mistakes each has made in competition against the other, just at least one from each comp. Yuzu's going to be overrepresented here, because I know a lot of his without having to look them up.

2019-2020

GPF: Yuzu missed his SP combo

2018-2019

WC: Yuzu popped his SP 4S to a 2S

2017-2018:

Olympics: Nathan had that disaster of an SP (missed combo, messy landings)

Rostelecom: Yuzu fell on his SP combo

2016-2017:

WC: Nathan fell twice in his FS

4CC: Yuzu popped his SP combo 4S to a 2S

GPF: Nathan fell on his SP 4F

NHK: Nathan fell on his SP 4Lz

WTT: Yuzu had a messy SP (popped 4Lo, fall on the combo)

I'd love to see them go clean head-to-head someday. It would be amazing.

1 hour ago, Geo1 said:

 

Let’s not forget that a 20-year-old Yuzu did reprise “Hello, I Love You” at the 2015 Fantasy on Ice in Shizuoka, including tossing his sweat soaked T-shirt into the audience.

 

 

Oh, trust me, this is the HILY performance I’m referencing any time I talk about how much I like this program. I found the video on a Youtube search one day not long after PC (thinking “hey, I liked that guy who won! I wonder what other programs he’s done...”) and it had an embarrassingly large part to play in me becoming a Yuzu fan. I was shocked that this is the same skater that gave us Ballade.

50 minutes ago, rockstaryuzu said:

After she was revived, you mean? although Yuzu is so young here that the program comes across more as cheeky and fun than sexy. If he were to do this one today he'd be melting the ice and setting the boards ablaze...

If he were to skate this now, there would be riots. You know what the crush for seats at ACI is like, and that's just for a spot in an small venue that has no bad seats. Can you imagine what would happen if Yuzu's sweaty, freshly-skated-in-and-then-autographed shirt went flying into a crowd these days?  (I'm saying this like I wouldn't be in the fray. We all know I'd be shamelessly elbowing people out of the way, provided I wasn't still unconscious from the effects of an all-grown-up HILY...)

_{But like... do the trashbag pants even fit now? Inquiring minds want to know...}

Here, this picture shows off his back muscles and was taken in public at GP Finland. No worries about the ethics of snapping this photo!

image source

I got Javi's Satan Takes A Holiday costume with the pinstripes. Eh, I've seen worse...

@barbara I like to sleep. I seriously considered not choosing to quarantine with Yuzu practicing his 4A at 3 AM. One of the other options was to quarantine with Nathan, but he just wants to talk about how much he admires Yuzuru all the time. Which seemed like a perfectly fine way to spend quarantine to me... but I still decided to go with Yuzu in the end.

11 minutes ago, rockstaryuzu said:

 

Oh Lord. And poor Morisi is right off the beat. The girl in grey is the only one able to make this mess look good.

 

Imagine being a downy young innocent wet-behind-the-ears skating novice and you join this group and this is your introduction to dance.

I think that's Shcherbakova in the grey between Kostornaia and Valieva? She's the only one anywhere near the camera I can't identify for sure. Anyway, she makes it look better than anyone else, but I'm not sure I'd say "good" is the right word. She's a good dancer, but there's only so much one can do with that material...

So if the choreographer of that mess is who this newest interview is from, I think we all know exactly how seriously to take it.

And Yuzu, yet again, gets dragged into unrelated drama. Great.

3 hours ago, Fay said:

This is brilliant - shall we play for a while? 

I insulted Averbukh because I wanted to skate to Sex Bomb! 

My Russian drama is that I betrayed Plushenko because I wanted to skate to Sex Bomb.

Trust me. Nobody wants me to skate to Sex Bomb, self included.

1 minute ago, azelais said:

Sorry for scaring you river!! I certainly didn't expect that to be one of the first images that pops up when you google Yuzu and wanted to share my bafflement, haha

Oh, don’t get me wrong, it’s hilarious that that’s one of the first few images that comes up. (And I double checked, same for me!) I just have so many questions about why it exists in the first place.

1 minute ago, Geo1 said:

 

Does this mean that I have to take back the goat plushy with the realistic staring eyes that I bought for you?