shanshani

surely he'd go for 4F before 4Lz, doesn't he flutz? I think Yuma still has a bit to go, because I think he was running out of steam by the end of his FS. Even though he's young, building up the stamina for 5 quads is not going to be trivial, and neither is building the consistency on the quads for it to be worth it. I do think he's set up pretty well to be #1 after both Nate and Yuzu retire though.

That first sit position is questionable, and I can't even tell whether the second is supposed to be a sit position or not because it sort of looks like one but is also not even close to meeting guidelines for sit positions. If it's a non-basic position, it would be strange for him to do it after a jump because the jump only counts as a level feature if he gets into a basic position afterward. saw someone comment that she got extra GOE for her ice coverage

Yikes. Somehow the judges still manage to surprise me with the ridiculousness of their scoring.

Yeah, country-level boycotts are decided by governments, not sporting bodies, so it wouldn't be a sport-specific thing. The Biden administration would be the ones making the call, and I really doubt Joe Biden cares very much about the Olympic title everyone assumes Nathan is going to win. However, to my knowledge the Biden administration hasn't really indicated any desire to go through with it. If the USA boycotts, there's a not-insignificant chance Japan will too, so the Russians might finally have a chance at a medal in men's lol. Still, it seems like a fairly low-probability event at this point.

Oh, the judges clearly couldn't mark SS correctly if their lives depended on it. It was very obvious Nathan had the worst SS in the final flight at Worlds (though, to be fair, it was an exceptionally good flight as far as SS are concerned). They think Han Yan's SS are over a point lower than Nathan's, which is just laughable.

Nah, Nathan is far superior to Vincent Zhou. Vincent Zhou doesn't tend to forget the music as much when he's jumping, but that's about it. Nathan has clean technique, while Vincent's quads are basically just slightly overrotated triples. There's a reason he had such a disaster skate at World's--it's his under-rotation problems coming back to bite him.

I don't think a clean Misha or Shoma would go above a clean Nathan. Maybe they should, but they're all behind him on BV (Misha especially) and aren't going to get any extra judging candies vs Nathan. It is true that based on the current judging, a clean Nathan is untouchable unless Yuzu can successfully upgrade to 5 quads and skate clean. That certainly shouldn't be the case (I don't think a single quad should be enough to make up the difference that should exist between them in components--like, sure, if Sasha Trusova lands 5 quads and her opponents land 1, then give it to her because however behind her components are, they aren't 4 quads behind. But 1 quad difference? That's a gap that should be bridgeable), but realistically it is true.

I do notice that the speed of Yuzu's turns makes it difficult to see his edges clearly in real time. Sometimes his turns look like they're done on shallow edges to me when I watch at full speed, but when I slow it down (so I can identify the steps and turns--Yuzu's StSq are like super hard mode for step identification because everything happens so quickly), I actually see that his edges are pretty deep and don't have any trouble recognizing the curve he's on. Someone like Jason is a lot easier to "read" in real time because he does his steps at a slower tempo, which makes it a lot easier to notice his edge quality and evaluate the quality of the turn in general.

There's 7 jumping passes, so unless Yuzu is going to do 7 quads he's going to have at least one 3A if he wants to maximize BV. Even if we keep the 3Lo, there's still 6 jumping passes left, so unless he wants to downgrade from 3A to 3Lz/3F for no real benefit or does something crazy like 4A/4Lz/4Lo/3Lo/4S3T/4Teu3S/4T3T, he's going to have a 3A. I believe in Yuzu and everything, but that's a bit beyond the bounds of plausibility. The 4A would count for the axel rule though--the rule is that there has to be an axel, not that it has to be 3A (or else skaters without 3A wouldn't be able to compete).

once I get better at recognizing steps and turns and memorize the StSq rules I'll have the ultimate gatekeeping tool

I have way too much brain space devoted to the CoP

counter gate keep them by quizzing them on figure skating minutiae you have memorized. "What's the BV of a 3F? How many GOE marks are supposed to be taken off for a q call? name the steps and turns that the ISU considers "difficult" for the purposes of step sequence leveling, and describe what each of them involves."

imo, he'll almost certainly sacrifice 4Lo. doing 5 quads with one of them being 4A sounds very taxing. I think he's probably much more capable of a 5 quad program than he was at 2019 GPF, but 4A is much more taxing than an ordinary quad. Nathan is much more consistent than Yuzu is, he has higher BV, and the judges shower him with points regardless of his deficiencies, so that's why he appears "unbeatable." Yuzu has also had a bad time in his post Pyeongchang competitions against Nathan for various reasons, which also contributes to it. A lot of these people also have some kind of stake in selling this narrative--eg. US commentators are clearly pushing their own skater. The narrative matters because judges hear it, and it influences how they score (judges that deviate too much from other judges get in trouble, so the judge selection process actively selects for conformists). Finally, a lot of these people are paid to yammer and consequently overreact to the latest competition result. If Yuzu hadn't had an asthma attack and had repeated his Jnats performance, you can be sure the narrative would be different. From a points standpoint, it's true that Yuzu is fighting an uphill battle competing against Nathan. But scores are one thing, and what people objectively put on the ice is another. Anyone who pays attention knows that the difference between the score and the actual performance is substantial. In no universe does Nathan have better skating skills than Keegan Messing (who should have gotten bronze in the short instead of Nathan). If we went by the scores, we would have to conclude that Han Yan has worse skating skills than Sasha Trusova. I actually really like Sasha, but that's laughable. Since the judging is so bad, people who have good artistry and skating skills often go unrewarded, whereas people who have the favor of the judges for whatever reason end up being far more competitive than they would be if the judging were accurate. That's one reason figure skating results and audience reactions often differ--the audience actually has a more accurate assessment of a skater's overall performance. I also think that a lot of people in the figure skating world are a little resentful of Yuzu's fame and success and also don't like the presence of fanyus, and therefore want to see him go.

Yuzu's 3F and 3Lz aren't "aggressive" though, they're as light as airy as any of his other jumps. I wouldn't even call the 4Lz aggressive when it's behaving. Don't slander the flip and lutz like that just because other people do toe hammers or muscle through the jumps The 3F in Hope and Legacy is perfect But also, isn't TenChi a bit aggressive as well? He's portraying a samurai going to war, isn't he? The music isn't light and airy in the way something like H&L is--to my ears, it has an edge to it. Speaking of portraying a samurai, I vaguely remember Yuzu saying at some point (I think around the time he was debuting Seimei) that he had to think about what kind of Japanese character he could portray, and that he wasn't really well suited to portraying a samurai. Guess things have changed I mean, he has filled out quite a bit.

based on previous boycotts, the host will stay the same (given the cost and infrastructure investment needed to set up the Olympics, it's not trivial to move them) and the event will go on as usual with countries that are not participating in the boycott. the boycotting governments could have a range of rules--some may bar their athletes from participating, whereas others might voice support for the boycott but not officially restrict athletes from attending. athletes from boycotting countries may be able to participate under the olympic flag

haha. how much do you want to test/compete? If I were you I would probably train until I could be reasonably sure I could pass several of the tests in a row, then sign up and cancel. the USFSA isn't going to be able to do that much with $144. plus I'm sure the organization does a lot of things outside of politicking and pushing their own elite senior skaters I'm curious to know how things go for you after you skipped a year of skating. the first time I stepped back on the ice I was shocked by how slippery the ice felt and how awkward and bad I was even at basic stroking. I mean, it's coming back quickly enough, but still. THE ICE IS NOT SUPPOSED TO BE THIS SLIPPERY. it's probably still going to be a few weeks before I feel comfortable working on the things that I was working on before. but you roller skated and iirc are more advanced than me, so it might be different ugh I miss skating already. I wish rinks would open to the public soon.

pretty sure his butt is too hard and muscly to be pudding though

have Yuzu conduct score audits. he watches all the major competitions in all of the disciplines already, and the juniors, so it wouldn't be too much extra work then the standings should be revised and medals reassigned to reflect his judgment

at the end of the day Yuzu is much more knowledgeable about figure skating than the vast majority of the audience and judges, so he has no reason to doubt his own judgment about his performances

OK you have to admit Yuzu landing 4A at SkAm would be a pretty big flex

isn't the ice at IdF notoriously terrible and covered in puddles though? I wouldn't want to try 4A in those conditions

I think all of the ones after the second one would be invalidated and wouldn't count, unfortunately. Good try though cursed GP possibility: Nathan goes to AO to get a feel for the Olympic venue, doesn't go to SkAm because it's only one week later. SkAm organizers demand Yuzu in order to sell tickets. Yuzu assigned to SkAm. (I mean, that would give him more time before NHK, I guess. also, if Yuzu were to do SCI and NHK he wouldn't be able to quarantine for two weeks, and I'm not sure whether that will go down well. The US is likely to have most of its population vaccinated by then, so it would probably be one of the less risky stops as far as covid goes. I can't believe I'm talking myself into this joke possibility.)

Given how Weir is, I really wouldn't want Yuzu to (and don't think Yuzu would) skate to a tribute to him at the Olympics. Also him having problems with Otonal was why he switched it out for Chopin 4.0 last year, wasn't it? H&E is pretty much certain if he goes. Even if he doesn't go, he still needs programs for next season. I think he either keeps LMEY or finally finds some other, more meaningful and probably classical-ish music he likes (or maybe he'll go all out on Japanese music, screw the judges and their eurocentric tastes). I do think that LMEY is slightly suboptimal as a competitive program because it seems harder for him to find the right timing on the 4S, hence the wobbly landings--though he's done well enough with it so far so maybe that's not a big deal. IMO, the main reason he would keep LMEY is so that he doesn't have to learn new choreo and can continue his single-minded devotion to the 4A. The main reason he wouldn't is because the music is not particularly meaningful to him as far as I can tell, and iirc he settled on it after failing to find a more classical piece that was to his liking? Speaking of the 4A, I know he wants to land the 4A in the LP, but I wonder if trying it in the SP might be easier first. Obviously it's risky as hell from a competitive perspective, but the good thing about the SP is that you only have to do 3 jumping passes, so it would be easier on his stamina. And hey, there's nothing that says he can't try it in both programs--more chances to land it, right? Although that would probably be very, very exhausting. I also don't think LMEY would be well suited for that because it's pretty uptempo and I think uptempo programs tend to be more physically taxing (so he probably has a different short in this unlikely scenario).

The Olympics is further away and higher profile though. They'll probably have special rules. I just found out I misread the schedule and NHK is actually before IdF, which means all of my speculation is wrong Lol the past week has left me so sleep deprived. I think SCI and NHK is ultimately the most likely for Yuzu (someone mentioned that the Japanese national champion traditionally gets NHK? I feel like this is true but I think my memory for a lot of figure skating stuff is a bit sketchy after not really following for a year). Fingers crossed--don't want him anywhere near Rostelecom, and IdF is also not ideal. Yeah in theory the medalists choose, but in practice there's a lot of negotiation/organizers have say. If something happens with CoC and it has to be replaced, I could see the organizers of the replacement demanding Yuzu like what happened with the Cup of Finland in 2019. That would really suck because it means Yuzu can't do SCI or NHK. Blech. Imagine the chaos that would ensue if Yuzu did pull out of the GP then lol

Shoma's done it in the past so it's not as though they never see big name skaters. Actually, Japanese skaters show up pretty frequently, for obvious reasons. Being the Olympic test event this year though, I imagine there will be a lot more interest. That might be a reason for Yuzu not to go though--if he's ambivalent about Olys he probably wouldn't want to go to the test event and increase expectations on him to go to Beijing in 2022. I googled again and found that AO is the week before the GP series starts, so it doesn't clash as much with the GP as I originally thought. It's still not great timing, but doable for anyone not doing Skate America. Since it is being held in Beijing though, then similar concerns apply for it as CoC--though China may be especially willing to bend the rules for an Olympic test event. As for whether Yuzu does the Grand Prix at all, I imagine it'll depend on the pandemic and the state of his 4A. If it's not ready by the GP season he might not go--I imagine he will definitely want it to be ready far before then though, and given how close he says he is, it should be? If it is ready, he'll probably appreciate the extra chances the GP gives him to land it. But of course he'll still be careful about not catching covid, so he might also skip if he judges the risk to be too high. (I was about to say that he would be careful about his health, but given his comments about what practicing 4A is doing to his body I'm not so sure that's an accurate statement )