shanshani

this would make him an entirely new level of GOAT

Yeah, like I said, relative to the amount of PR allowed for a loop, it's not especially egregious. The quad lutzes are definitely way more egregious. A textbook lutz isn't PR at all, and while that may be a bit of a high standard, really there shouldn't be more than like 90 degrees. It's saying something when I was like "well Samarin's 4Lz is 120-150 PR but that's relatively good these days"

Oh, ok, I misinterpreted since I didn't re-read the comment. I actually agree with you on the completely rotated position, so it sounds like we actually agree on what basis to compare his PR and UR to. But the takeoff doesn't look parallel to that to me. He looks angled slightly, not parallel to the boards, which is why I estimated 210 prerotation. It's not a great camera angle for assessing the exact amount of PR though Compare to Yuzu's quad loop in practice. The camera angle is better here (though focus is not the terrible autofocus ruined more than a few shots), but even with the blurriness, you can tell Yuzu is off the ice by 180 degrees. His landing is a bit UR (maybe 70-80 degrees), but not enough to be called if it were a competition. I actually don't think it's that hard to determine which angle to compare PR/UR, even for loops. From this angle, it seems pretty clear?

looking at your frames more closely, I would agree on the takeoff point (or at least it's obvious he's off the ice in the very next frame--and also that frame looks over 180 to me), but the landing looks way off too me. If he had landed there it wouldn't have been called UR. He happens to land on a black letter so it's a little hard to judge exactly which frame he lands, but the toepick definitely hits the ice way before the frame you've screencapped. we know that because the blade is already fully on the ice by then.

I did frame by frame and it looks about 210. I allowed the starting point to be parallel to the boards even though it looks like he starts the jump earlier than that, which would make it more PR. Idk I feel like I'm giving him a decent amount of benefit of the doubt here. Again, it's not as excessively PR as the 4Lz's we see these days relative to acceptable pre-rotation for each jump, but I don't think a call would be unfair here, if tech panels did things like call PR. Maybe this would be one of the situations where a relatively lenient panel could argue to let it go, but a stricter panel would call it. Overall, I think he's still short of the 3.25 revolutions in the air I would say is the absolute minimum for something to count as a 4Lo, and revolutions-in-air is what I would really base calls on if I were the one in charge of tech panel rules.

I'm just counting where the pick leaves the ice, which was over 180 from the point where he started the takeoff/the starting point implied by the trajectory of the jump. I guess you could argue that loop jumps are allowed 180 PR, and Matteo wasn't that far over 180, so maybe it's not as bad of a case as we see routinely on lutzes these days.

hm, Samarin's 4Lz is somewhat PR, looks to be around the 120-150 degrees mark, but it's not as bad as we've seen from others. He does clearly land all the way around, so I'll give him that. Rizzo though you're allowed a bit more PR on loops, but even then that was a bit much. Plus it's clearly under. Did it get called?

you have to remember that Yuzu got a bunch of BS calls that destroyed his TES at ACI. without them his TES would have been like 14 pts higher

I'm about to murder my rink's pro shop. I leave them clear instructions on what to do, they tell me they can do it in one week. then they call me the day before it's supposed to be fixed telling me they can't do it. this has happened so many times. I just want to skate on blades that are properly aligned for my feet. is that too much to ask? also they can't even tell when edges are uneven edit: my coach and I spent a looong time fixing it. after almost 11 months of skating I finally have boots that fit and blades that are aligned right for my feet everything is so much easier

yeah, you're probably thinking of the older version of the project I'm currently working on. and yeah the yale prof's project was on 2010 olys the project I'm working on aims to collect a complete record of each judge's scoring history relative to their peers since the judging change after 2018 olys. basically, we're computing a measure of how much each judge over or under scored a skater relative to the rest of the panel, and put all that information together in one place so we can review whether a judge shows evidence of systematic bias in favor of their own federation's skaters. the idea is to be able to flag problematic judges and have concrete evidence of their bias.

well, some sleuthing tells me that a professor named John Emerson and a doctoral candidate named Taylor Arnold from Yale co-authored an article on figure skating judging bias in 2011 hm, might be worth contacting them once my data project is in an acceptable state of completion

also aren't you guys taking RTs a little too seriously? it's just practice, it's not a performance. Usually they're pretty poorly attended--it's unusual for there to even be a big enough audience for significant cheering. I remember sitting through ladies practice at JGPF last year and there was barely anyone, and that was for the most hyped group of young skaters in a while. And no one really thought twice of getting up to relocate/go to the restroom, etc. I really don't think there's an obligation to behave in any particular manner at open practice, other than to not be blatantly disruptive, any more than skaters have an obligation to run through their whole program and not skip elements, or put on a show for the audience, or even show up/stay the whole time. it's not that kind of event I don't think Yuzu was trying to say the crowd was being rude, just trying to direct some cheers Chris Caluza's way too. He was most likely just being nice, not rebuking anyone.

lol, so I have *something* in common with him which house did you pick first, Yuzu? and which character are you pairing your MC with

!!!!!!! does the Yale Professor have a name?

I'm not sure the 3A is actually UR. It's 90 degree prerotated, but that's acceptable for an axel, and seems to land more or less perfectly backwards if you count from the point she starts pre-rotating into the jump rather than the point she actually leaves the ice. but yeah the 2T is a textbook toe-axel

I think we have to be careful about how we characterize such footage. We don't know what the cause of a bad tech call could be--bad angles, judges skipping reviewing the element, something more nefarious, etc. But sending it to figure skating media would be helpful, yes, as well as tweeting it at the ISU with the relevant hashtags. Though I don't think it would be enough interest for general sports media to bite, not when it isn't Olympics season.

I've added everyone to the working thread. Thanks for volunteering!

With 30fps or other low frame rates it's hard to tell, but I've found when looking at 240 fps it isn't actually that hard to determine the frame where it happens. Multiple angles helps too

Here is the template Here is an example Note that you need to create a separate sheet for each competition segment. all that needs to be filled out are the names of the participating skaters, their nationality codes (JPN, USA, RUS, etc), the judges' names, their nationality codes, and the judges' individual scores for the skaters. the sheet will calculate everything else I need automatically.

It's okay, I've been kind of irritable the past couple of days because of jetlag haha. And yeah I think the kind of project I'm doing is exactly the kind of thing ISU needs to be doing to create some kind of accountability mechanism for judges and some way of critically examining judges' records, but alas the ISU is not going to do this kind of thing themselves.

I'm going to couch my actual claims in probabilistic, careful language like any good statistician when I actually write up the project. It's just too exhausting to do that all the time/there's kind of a tradeoff between communicating clearly and communicating carefully. Plus my definition of biased is "scores own skaters higher than other skaters" and I'm going to be somewhat agnostic about the cause and nature of the bias, eg. whether it's intentional or not. I'm not going to make any claims about people colluding to fix scores or whatever. I know I don't have evidence for that, and my project is not designed to be able to find collusion between judges anyway. But at the same time, I think showing significant statistical bias is enough to throw your judging into question, regardless of whether you're deliberately trying to take down opposing skaters or whether it's just because your own skaters give you the warm fuzzies so you throw them some extra points. A significant minority of judges don't show evidence of national bias, so it's not like it's impossible for judges to be fair. I'm pretty sure "judge A scores their own skaters two standard deviations above how they score other skaters" isn't really cause for a libel suit, especially when backed up with data. It would be ridiculous. Plus it's really hard to sue for that kind of thing in the US, which is the only place I have any money. I just don't think there are really serious risks here, other than for the ISU if this somehow catches more attention than it did last time. The biggest risk is I sink a bunch of time into a project that will be ignored

I have all of the grand prix from last season + ACI, Lombardia, and Ondrej Nepala, and ACI and Lombardia from this year. So basically I need to rest of the senior Bs from last year as well as 4CC, Euros, and Worlds. I've changed the format of the competition sheet significantly from the last iteration of this project because I had major problems with how it handled judging from competitions where the the judging panel changed between the SP and FS, not to mention there was simply too much data to input so it was a nightmare from a workload perspective. Plus there were theoretical issues about comparability between different disciplines. So it's revised and simpler this go around. If you're interested, the template is here and a filled out example is here. Basically all you need to do is write down the list of skaters, their nationality code, the judges, their nationality code, and then the score each judge gave each skater (easiest to do this from skatingscores.com). Separate sheet for each segment of the competition.

sorry you go a bit crazy when you've been staring at spreadsheets for hours on end while being immensely jetlagged

Alas, I don't know how to code, and moreover I've heard skatingscores has been a bit touchy about having their data scraped in the past. I might be able to get my boyfriend to do it though. "What do you want for Christmas?" "A website scraper that will import figure skating scores into an excel document for me" lol I'm aware that correlation doesn't equal causation, but at the same time there is such thing as inference to the best explanation. If a judge consistently scores skaters of the same nationality higher than skaters of other nationalities, across multiple competitions and skaters, it is reasonable to conclude that they are likely biased in some way in favor of home country skaters, especially given figure skating's history of dodgy judging and the existence of fair judges to compare the "biased" judges to. As I believe I have amply demonstrated in similar past analyses, I am amply able to consider alternative hypotheses and think carefully about results and honestly I find it kind of annoying to be talked to as though I'm undertaking baby's first statistics project, especially since this is like version 3 of the project and I've already dealt with some of these criticisms in previous analyses. I know you're well intentioned and I'm just being touchy, but the amount of hours I have put into this makes it incredibly irritating. I am speaking loosely in these posts, but rest assured the serious analysis will not take the shortcuts in reasoning I feel at liberty to take when I'm just talking casually. I am happy to respond to substantive criticisms when that serious analysis is posted.

that's where I'm getting my data from, but I need it in an excel/google spreadsheets format