General Skating Chat

[WinForPooh]

I might be wrong, but Arakawa never won a Junior Worlds title, either, did she? And going farther back, Sarah Hughes won basically no big international gold at all except the Olympics. Yes, that was a... well, quite an Olympics, but she won the gold.

 

I don't think there's a big enough sample size to draw conclusions about only JGPF gold winners winning at the Olympics.

[cinemacoconut]

Well at least the top 6 in JGPF do better than jrs who never were invited to JGPF in the first place. Yuna and Mao both had exceptional Jr careers. As with Yuzu who won both JR wrlds and JGPF and also won gold at 2 jr grand prixes. 

 

Olympic champions are very very exceptional skaters. Even the controversial Adelia won both jr worlds and JGPF (so shocking.. Lol)

[cinemacoconut]

What im trying to say is that I think you young and eunsoo both who werent the top 6 in JGP series, i wouldnt call them gold medal favorites for Beijing. 

 

On the other hand Trusova and Kostornaia and Rika have been consistent during their first jr years. 

 

Im trying to say that I wouldnt bet too much on you young nor eunsoo becoming the next queen, judging by jr results to present. They will be the best of korea but not the worlds best (kf they prove me wrong in jr worlds I would be surprised and acknowledge their sudden change)

[Xen]

1 minute ago, WinForPooh said:

I might be wrong, but Arakawa never won a Junior Worlds title, either, did she? 

You are correct. According to Wikipedia, Shizuka Arakawa only went 8th, 7th and 8th at Junior worlds. Sasha Cohen only won 6th, Tara Lipinski won 5th and 6th, though Michelle Kwan won 1st once.

Just now, cinemacoconut said:

What im trying to say is that I think you young and eunsoo both who werent the top 6 in JGP series, i wouldnt call them gold medal favorites for Beijing.

On the other hand Trusova and Kostornaia and Rika have been consistent during their first jr years.

I don't have a problem with saying that they might not be gold medal favorites now, but I also don't think you can compare the competition that Yuna and Mao faced during their Junior years, to the one right now. Right now, some of the junior ladies can climb into Senior ladies and win with their technical content. =)

 

Also, Yuzu only got 12th in his first Jr worlds, then he took first, and moved on to seniors. =)

 

[cinemacoconut]

I agree. Technically both trusova and kostornaia are jumping 3lz 3 loop with tano. This is insane. Ladies jr has never been this competitive. And I am so looking fowards to Beijing 2022 because of it. Yuzu was 12 in worlds at first year but won Every single competition the next year, like there was no silver. Just gold. He was an exceptional jr who landed triple axels at 13. 

 

So i think hes uncomparable to You Young and eunsoo. I dnt dislike them but i dnt think they shld be touted as the top of the jr ladies right now. Time will tell. 

[ralucutzagy]

ouch!wrong  thread!

[Dara]

Oksana - never competed internationally at junior level I believe

Tara - 4th and 5th at Jr.Worlds (no JGPF at that time)

Sarah - 2nd at all here Jr competitions (including Worlds and JGPF)

Shizuka - 7-8th at Jr. Worlds (no JGPF at that time), won Olympics at age of 24 (the oldest in 80+ years)

Yes, from 2010 you see JGPF winners becoming Olympics gold medalists. But so many great skaters can't carry their success to senior level.

 

Here is the list of JGPF medalists https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISU_Junior_Grand_Prix_Final 

Many of these girls never ever medaled even on GP events. Like Becky Bereswill (who?) or Yukiko Fujisawa.

 

 

 

[WinForPooh]

So in the last five Olympics, we have two gold winners who didn't dominate junior circuit, and we have three who did extremely well in the junior circuit. We also have a lot of skaters who did very well in the junior circuit and then faded away compared to Olympic gold level success.

 

ETA: Before that we have Tara, too, I forgot. Oops. Also didn't win Junior Worlds.

 

I don't think there's enough in that data to draw a definitive conclusion. Especially because the really good junior move into the senior rank quicker than usual, so the pool of competitors at any given time won't necessarily be similar to the kind of competition they face once they move to senior.  Mirai won JGPF, too. So did Masha Sotskova. And *cries a little* Polina. We see what puberty has been doing to a couple of them and Mirai's artistry never developed to Olympic podium level. 

 

Also, You Young is only thirteen. Judging You Young's junior success a good few years before she moves to senior is quite harsh. It's only one single season, that doesn't even include Worlds yet. Even Yuzu wouldn't rate very high if you judged him on his first junior season!

[Dara]

2 minutes ago, WinForPooh said:

Even Yuzu wouldn't rate very high if you judged him on his first junior season!

Yup, he didn't get spot at another event of series cause his place at his first was too low.

[WinForPooh]

2 minutes ago, Dara said:

Yup, he didn't get spot at another event of series cause his place at his first was too low.

lol He was basically still a novice then, wasn't he? Just won too much and got invited to the junior circuit! 

[cinemacoconut]

10 minutes ago, Dara said:

Yup, he didn't get spot at another event of series cause his place at his first was too low.

 

 

But yuzu already has something special about him...

 

 

I honestly think its too early to hype up you young as the next queen.

Zagitova has better technique than You Young. 3lz 3loop. While trusova and Kostornaia and other Eteri girls are technically and mentally stronger than You Young. I think i was wrong to put her possibility down as the next OGM but its true she was Off the podium in the jr grand prix events. 

 

If any the next queen seems to he Alena Kostornaia because her star power and musicality and consistency and results in JGP is astounding and excellent. She has a higher chance. 

 

 

We cannot ignore jr results. They reflect Talent. And truly legendary skaters stand out frm jr days. 

 

If You young wins every single jr event like yuzu did next season i too might start acknowledging her as a promising skater, but until she proves it, i wnt count her as 2022 favorite OGM

[WinForPooh]

13 minutes ago, cinemacoconut said:

 

 

But yuzu already has something special about him...

 

 

I honestly think its too early to hype up you young as the next queen.

Zagitova has better technique than You Young. 3lz 3loop. While trusova and Kostornaia and other Eteri girls are technically and mentally stronger than You Young. I think i was wrong to put her possibility down as the next OGM but its true she was Off the podium in the jr grand prix events. 

 

If any the next queen seems to he Alena Kostornaia because her star power and musicality and consistency and results in JGP is astounding and excellent. She has a higher chance. 

 

 

We cannot ignore jr results. They reflect Talent. And truly legendary skaters stand out frm jr days. 

 

If You young wins every single jr event like yuzu did next season i too might start acknowledging her as a promising skater, but until she proves it, i wnt count her as 2022 favorite OGM

Not to be rude, but what everybody is saying is that it is far too early to consider anybody as a possible podium contender in 2022, because four years is a VERY LONG TIME in ladies' figure skating. Nobody is actually looking for the queen of 2022 right now.

 

We're all crossing our fingers and hoping that the technique and performance among the juniors - who are incredible, the JGPF thread on the planet this season was full of wonder and amazement, and I'm definitely looking forward to Worlds - will remain as they mature and grow into seniors. I think the point here is also that while Eteri's girls are very impressive, so far only two have made it through to seniors successfully and one of them is still 15. The one who is 18 is already struggling with injuries and has been overtaken by the 15-year-old as far as results are concerned. Yulia retired around the time senior girls usually hit their peak. The time frame for these girls is different. We have no real way of knowing who will be in with a good shot by 2022.

 

Overhyping Sasha whose technique might not - it might, too - serve her well when she is 17 is a mistake. Which 15-year-old will overtake her by then? So is overhyping Alena, though she is the only one who can, so far, really sell a completely backloaded programme and her skating is really lovely.

 

Rika Kihira's jump technique relies a little less heavily on extra fast rotations, and she is also training 4T and 4S. You Young is 13 and training the 3A from what I saw last. A lot of ladies outside of Eteri's school are also training quads, and we have no idea if any of them will manage to keep those quads when they're older. Lilbet Tursynbaeva had a 4S but this Olympics was a complete disappointment to her. 

 

The 2017-18 Junior Grand Prix events are not an accurate guide to predict who will be top of the ladies figure skating world in 2022. 

[Dara]

26 minutes ago, WinForPooh said:

lol He was basically still a novice then, wasn't he? Just won too much and got invited to the junior circuit! 

Well he wouldn't be able to compete at JGP if he'd be novice. He was 13.

 

14 minutes ago, cinemacoconut said:

But yuzu already has something special about him...

It's easy to say now "he was special even then". The thing is, I see something special in some junior skaters (like Polina Tsurskaya - I still remember that moment and even place of the rink where she landed her 3Lz in front of me), but it isn't necessary that they will be able to carry that to their later careers.

So after watching whole Olympic cycle I became very careful with my expectations. You never know what happens with these young skaters. Look at Sota who hoped to compete with Yuzu in 2018 - he broke his leg right before Jr.Worlds he was very likely to win and still can't recover. So I think it's safer to just keep eye on many juniors who have great qualities and crown no one as "next queen" and so on.

Junior competitions are to practice their skills and get experience. It's great if they can win, but junior medals don't mean that much is you can't keep your level and develop as a senior. Lets be honest - nobody but skating fans would even know if you was Jr. World medalist.

[WinForPooh]

2 minutes ago, Dara said:

Well he wouldn't be able to compete at JGP if he'd be novice. He was 13.

Oops.

 

I remember something about him advancing through the ranks too quickly and winning the necessary position to be invited to junior/senior level, but being too young to actually qualify. I must have mixed it all up.

[cinemacoconut]

I will keep a close eye on jr worlds in a few days and see who will be on the podium.

 

And also next season. If trusova and alena move up senior in 2019~2020 season then I cnt help but hope they are the next queen material.