General Yuzuru Chat

[b138oo]

I think some of us are still trapped in the Chopin 2.0 layout. Had Yuzu skated this same layout, 4Lo 3A 4T3T, to LGC or new music, I doubt we'll go he downgrades his layout, he's been defeated by his unsuccessful SP last season, he's going too safe etc.

If the music is not Chopin 3.0, I'm pretty sure people would see the significance of having 4-3 combo on the second half for the 1st time more, than worrying about his downgrade in terms of technical difficulties (which I kinda  bc well I'm a person who doesn't really consider 4S is a lot harder than 4T). 

For the transitions, well he basically switched around the program components timing without really having new choreography touches. It's clear he hasn't been working with Jeff. His skill has improved comparing from 2015-2016 to last season, so I don't think we should expect less transitions and complex programs from him. 

For the judges, I am in the impression they don't even remember Yuzu's Chopin to the point they will not appreciate the program as it should be and kind of deduct points for lack of freshness. LGC Yuzu is probably the program they have in their mind as comparison bc:

1. There are a lot of different judges out there, there is a possibility some of the judges have never even seen Chopin 2.0

2. After judging so many competitions, I doubt they will remember the programs the participants did 2 seasons ago. That's why Chopin 3.0 doesn't really worry me bc at least Yuzu has skipped one season before decided to bring it back.

3. LGC and Chopin are two totally different programs. There is no way you could see LGC Yuzu in Chopin Yuzu. So, the imprinted LGC Yuzu image could help to emphasize his versatility.

4. There is a possibility that those judges who hate LGC and pro classic programsp would love Chopin, be like "this is what he should have done before", and throw some points 

5. Well I figured so many people in this field have short-term memory and they also judge the ability of the skaters based on the images of the skaters. So don't underestimate consistentcy.

 

As for 4Lz, it will be nice if he could put it in, but if it's not ready, I don't think it's necessary. Just like some of you said the men's field is different bc of the techs ridiculousness of the youngsters. So, I guess maybe we should stop expecting him to be 5-10 points ahead of them all the time. And just like being safe is risky, going into a difficult layout route with 60% chance of landing a jump is even riskier. This is Olympic season and the main goal is OGM. Yuzu had experienced how stressful Olympic could be. An extra bagage to the existing pressure is not necessary at all. 

 

[Yatagarasu]

21 minutes ago, Fresca said:

 

I'd still love to see those arguments to see what they are characterising about it as "average". Is it the choreography? The tech? The execution? The music?

 

Sorry, didn't see the post. There is always talk about the tech and execution, which frankly I hand-wave, because Chopin was masterfully executed and while we can talk about the level 3 of the steps it's really not something that is massively important in the grand constellation of things (plus I am sure this version will easily go to lvl4 anyway; Yuzuru is a better skater now than he was then).

The main points were music and choreography. I must admit I understand the talk about the music cut of the piece itself. The difference is that to me, I didn't find it an issue but I do understand how to some, cutting out the main lyrical theme was a problem that messed up the musical progression of the piece. 
For choreography, uh, I think the objection was that quite a bit of the program was actually CoP orientated, if I remember well so forced to fit that. 

[xeyra]

10 minutes ago, meoima said:

Let's look at the other guys layouts: 

Nathan's SP: 4Lz3T 4F // 3A - 53.15 BV

Shoma's SP: 4Lo 4F3T // 3A - 51.55 BV

Boyang's SP: 4Lz3T 3A // 4T - 51.33 BV

 

Just to correct/update the values here, if Shoma's SP has the 4F3T in the second half too, his BV would be 53.21. But I do agree Shoma's new layout will be a risk for him and, like any man, there's no guarantee anyone can really go clean. So I'm actually starting to warm up to the idea of having a more reliable SP without the 4Lz, as long as he doesn't allow himself to fall too behind on his BV in the FS as to let that be the difference between him winning or not. He should probably try and get closer to 110 BV for his FS as possible. 

[Yatagarasu]

9 minutes ago, meoima said:

For the nth time, don't act like all the men will skate clean at the Olympic. Because they won't.

 

And I never said that they would, in fact, I reiterated, that no, I do not believe that would be the case, and clearly stated that. So I'll end the conversation here as I think it's pointless if you're are not going to actually read what I'm writing. Have a nice day 

[ralucutzagy]

And talking about pressure. It's bigger now than it was 4 years ago. Then he was the underdog, the runner up, almost nobody would've bet for him to win the OMG. Now he is OC, 2 times WC and 4 time GPFC. People have great expectations. And the amount of pressure it doubled. For me this is one of the reasons he picked Chopin again. He felt the need to take a little of the edge away. Among other things.

[meoima]

Just now, xeyra said:

 

Just to correct/update the values here, if Shoma's SP has the 4F3T in the second half too, his BV would be 53.21. But I do agree Shoma's new layout will be a risk for him and, like any man, there's no guarantee anyone can really go clean. So I'm actually starting to warm up to the idea of having a clean more reliable SP without the 4Lz, as long as he doesn't allow himself to fall too behind on his BV in the FS as to let that be the difference between him winning or not. He should probably try and get closer to 110 BV for his FS as possible. 

I would say, a new layout in the SP for Olympic season is very risky so unless you're very stable with it, you should not put it in. Because 1.5 points or 2 points higher in BV doesn't guarantee you will jump up 10 points, the risk is that you might lose 8-10 points if you mess. It's all about risk- rewards. As you as pointed out, a clean Yuzuru with 4Lo // 3A - 4T3T and +2 GOE in everything might score 111 or 112 if underscored, so compared to a 4lz // 3A - 4T3T that get 0 or -1 GOE. It doesn't worth the risk. 

[Murieleirum]

2 minutes ago, xeyra said:

 

Just to correct/update the values here, if Shoma's SP has the 4F3T in the second half too, his BV would be 53.21. But I do agree Shoma's new layout will be a risk for him and, like any man, there's no guarantee anyone can really go clean. So I'm actually starting to warm up to the idea of having a clean more reliable SP without the 4Lz, as long as he doesn't allow himself to fall too behind on his BV in the FS as to let that be the difference between him winning or not. He should probably try and get closer to 110 BV for his FS as possible. 

 

It would be interesting to study the average GOE points Shoma, Nathan and Boyang get. Without taking into consideration whether or not Shoma's cheated jumps may get called next season. Maybe confronting GOE will help us give meaning to all this BV versus BV discussion, and give it perspective :) 

[Floria]

Yuzuru can not count on other people making mistakes. It may work or not, but is it a winning strategy? There is a possibility his rivals skate clean, after all he will get the most pressure.

[xeyra]

6 minutes ago, Floria said:

Yuzuru can not count on other people making mistakes. It may work or not, but is it a winning strategy? There is a possibility his rivals skate clean, after all he will get the most pressure.

 

Which is why he has to upgrade his BV in a reasonable way somewhere, which might well be his FS. And if he uses his SP to go clean and reliable and keep him at the 110 ish range and even if he doesn't increase it past what this current Chopin BV gives him (51.01, still an upgrade from last season's), he can afford to make those kinds of risks in his FS a bit more. He will never have the highest BV in the field again so all he can do is to keep the difference reasonable so that his GOEs and PCS can still give him an edge. To note: this means I'm hoping for his 4Lz in the FS.

[meoima]

18 minutes ago, Yatagarasu said:

 

And I never said that they would, in fact, I reiterated, that no, I do not believe that would be the case, and clearly stated that. So I'll end the conversation here as I think it's pointless if you're are not going to actually read what I'm writing. Have a nice day 

I understand your point. It would be ideal if he can add 4lz. But I am actually annoyed when you insist that Yuzuru "MUST" add 4lz to the SP. No, he must not. While I do this he should have 4lz in the LP, 4lz in the SP isn't that rewarding as people are making it to be.

 

What Yuzuru truly needs is consistency and skating cleanly when it is needed. 

Sochi ended with bad skating. I doubt that judges would want to see another splat fest. They will just go with whoever skate the most clean-ish with same BV. 

 

And so, what if they all skate clean? Does it matter if they're scored close to Yuzuru? The point is for him to stay in the final flight in the LP. The SP is not a done deal. 

The reality is their quality can not go up from B to A in one summer. Judges can give +1 for some elements that deserve -1 or 0, and +2 for some elements only deserve +1 but that's it. They can't give +3 for elements only deserve 0.

At Helsinki, they underscored Yuzuru, so what. They could not give him 0 or 1 for elements he deserved 3. So he ended up with +2 and +2.5 instead. Still enough for him to win.

This is why math matters.

 

Again, remember that, after 4CC, many people already said Yuzuru "must add 4lz" and "must do 5 quads". Did he do? No he did not and he still won. 

[xeyra]

8 minutes ago, Murieleirum said:

 

It would be interesting to study the average GOE points Shoma, Nathan and Boyang get. Without taking into consideration whether or not Shoma's cheated jumps may get called next season. Maybe confronting GOE will help us give meaning to all this BV versus BV discussion, and give it perspective :) 

 

I haven't done calculations on averages, only best GOE values for my 'fantasy protocols' I've posted in the skating thread, but you can find Shoma's averages last season here. Not sure if anyone has done the same for Nathan or Javi or Patrick. I have the protocols, I could try and do something similar for them once I get home tonight.

[meoima]

15 minutes ago, Floria said:

Yuzuru can not count on other people making mistakes. It may work or not, but is it a winning strategy? There is a possibility his rivals skate clean, after all he will get the most pressure.

It seems you're missing the point, he doesn't count on other making mistakes. He has to count on himself to not make mistakes. And that's the whole difference level.

 

After Sochi, whenever he lost, it's because he made mistakes. Even when the other men get higher tech, it's still Yuzuru to lose. He has different status than the others. Judges and everyone see him as the one.

 

And unlike Yuna who didn't do GPs and stayed out of most Olympic season, Yuzuru has continued appearing before the judges' eyes. So no, they won't forget him and they won't give his "The one" status to others as long as he does well. 

 

So it is not Yuzuru counting on other to make mistakes. It's these men count on Yuzuru's mistakes. And that's why he made it clear that he has to improve his consistency and reduce the mistakes. 

[Pamigena]

38 minutes ago, kaeryth said:

I do find it funny that Chopin is so contradictory: some find it as playing safe and others find it risky.

 

I actually think it's really kind of both in some ways. It can be risky if he doesn't deliver 150%, because people will have certain expectations, and I'm afraid that he may get judged accordingly. On the other hand, I can also understand why it's seen as a "safe choice" because he's familiar with the program and he already knows that he can deliver it. Even if the layout and choreography get changed in some parts, he's still very familiar with the basics of the program, and that kind of confidence boost could lower the chances of headcasing closely to zero.

[xeyra]

I think @meoima's point might be related to that skating adage: "you can't win it in the SP but you can lose it in the SP". And Yuzu has been very close to losing it in the SP this past season. Score ranges in the SP are a lot lower than in the FS if everyone goes clean. 

[meoima]

5 minutes ago, xeyra said:

I think @meoima's point might be related to that skating adage: "you can't win it in the SP but you can lose it in the SP". And Yuzu has been very close to losing it in the SP this past season. Score ranges in the SP are a lot lower than in the FS if everyone goes clean. 

Exactly, Yuzuru lost 4CC due to the SP. And I doubt that he didn't take that into account. And frankly, I don't mind if he doesn't lead the SP with 10-20 points ahead. The point is he needs to skate well his SP to be in the range to get top candies in GOE and PCS for the LP.