General Yuzuru Chat

[xeyra]

Just now, meoima said:

Exactly, Yuzuru lost 4CC due to the SP. And I doubt that he didn't take that into account. 

 

And since you can't really have a difference of 20 points in the SP between skaters if everyone goes clean because of the limited elements, which keep the BV reasonably balanced between all (even now there's differences of 1-3 points in BV ranges whereas in the FS there can be over 15 points in difference!), the SP is the ideal place to go for the reliable and aim for clean. 

[Murieleirum]

7 minutes ago, xeyra said:

 

I haven't done calculations on averages, only best GOE values for my 'fantasy protocols' I've posted in the skating thread, but you can find Shoma's averages last season here. Not sure if anyone has done the same for Nathan or Javi or Patrick. I have the protocols, I could try and do something similar for them once I get home tonight.

 

If you'll do it, you'll be my hero! I'm terribly slow at these things. xD

[xeyra]

Just now, Murieleirum said:

 

If you'll do it, you'll be my hero! I'm terribly slow at these things. xD

 

Yeah, making the tables and inserting the elements can be terribly time consuming so I'm not sure I'll finish it tonight. But don't expect fancy graphics from me. All I can manage is to make tables.  

[Murieleirum]

Just now, xeyra said:

 

Yeah, making the tables and inserting the elements can be terribly time consuming so I'm not sure I'll finish it tonight. But don't expect fancy graphics from me. All I can manage is to make tables.  

 

I'm the kind of person who makes memes with paint, so I won't expect fancy graphics from anyone 

[meoima]

Just now, xeyra said:

 

And since you can't really have a difference of 20 points in the SP between skaters if everyone goes clean because of the limited elements, which keep the BV reasonably balanced between all (even now there's differences of 1-3 points in BV ranges whereas in the FS there can be over 15 points in difference!), the SP is the ideal place to go for the reliable and aim for clean. 

Exactly... thank you for pointing it out so well. 

I am all for better BV, and I would be thrilled to see 4lz from Yuzuru. But he has gone through the process with 4lo and 4S3T in SP and we all know what happened. 

Adding 4lz will help him get 1.5 points higher in BV, but the risk can be up to 8-10 points if he messed. We all see he only got 106 for LGC with a bad landing at Let's Go Crazy GPF. Had he been totally clean, he might hit 114 or so. So just a bad landing lost him 8 points already. Does it really worth it to endure that process again by adding 4lz? 

Let's assume eveyone goes clean in the SP, the scores range will be from 100-110. With the limited BV and elements, it's impossible to go to 120 in the SP and I highly doubt they can go there anyway.

The point of the SP is to be clean and reliable.

Then he can soar in the LP. 

[Altie]

10 minutes ago, xeyra said:

I think @meoima's point might be related to that skating adage: "you can't win it in the SP but you can lose it in the SP". And Yuzu has been very close to losing it in the SP this past season. Score ranges in the SP are a lot lower than in the FS if everyone goes clean. 

 

Yes, exactly.

I really don't understand how putting 4Lz in the SP could benefit him. He already has a 4Lo, which is consistant and with high GOE. That's what he wanted to achive last season.

Having better scores with the 4Lz would require it to become as consistant and with as high GOE than the 4Lo. In olympic season... Too risky. High risk, almost no gain, for me it's a no brainer...

 

On the other hand, I'm expecting a bit more madness in the FP... with lots of backloaded quads and crazy combos that will affect grandly my anxiety level all this year

[xeyra]

Of course, one could make an argument that leading the SP by 10 points would give him more freedom in the FS too, whereas aiming to keep within the range of others gives more pressure to do well in the FS. And yet, when he's had the pressure to chase this season, he ended up doing better, so maybe that's also a strategy?

 

Edit: All these arguments are only valid IF he upgrades his FS BV reasonably. If he falls too much behind there, it can be relying on other's mistakes too much.

[Altie]

4 minutes ago, xeyra said:

Of course, one could make an argument that leading the SP by 10 points would give him more freedom in the FS too, whereas aiming to keep within the range of others gives more pressure to do well in the FS. And yet, when he's had the pressure to chase this season, he ended up doing better, so maybe that's also a strategy?

 

There's no realistic layout that could give him a 10 point lead in the SP if everybody goes clean. And no layout that could give him much more than what he's going to get with his 4Lo // 3A 4T3T

In fact, as was shown in earlier posts, he could gain a grand maximum of 2 points in BV by taking huge risks.

 

And we can also take into account the fact that his WR with Chopin has stayed last season. And the one who almost broke it was Javi, with a relatively "simple" layout.

[Floria]

I guess we should wait and see what happens in a few months. It is early summer and things can go many different ways from now on. There is still a possibility of a new  SP or great changes in the current version of Chopin. And we know nothing about the FS still.

[Murieleirum]

9 minutes ago, xeyra said:

Of course, one could make an argument that leading the SP by 10 points would give him more freedom in the FS too, whereas aiming to keep within the range of others gives more pressure to do well in the FS. And yet, when he's had the pressure to chase this season, he ended up doing better, so maybe that's also a strategy?

 

(Btw we still have to actually see others getting within that 110 range, the only one who came close this season was Javier, at the end of the season!)

 

EDIT: Altie kinda beat me to it! xD

[Yatagarasu]

14 minutes ago, meoima said:

But I am actually annoyed when you insist that Yuzuru "MUST" add 4lz to the SP. No, he must not. While I do this he should have 4lz in the LP, 4lz in the SP isn't that rewarding as people are making it to be.

 

I never said that, now did I? I said that to me, if he doesn't add the 4Lz (the way his mentality and view of skating has been so far), considering the current field, that is not understandable. That is not the same as saying he must do something.

Of course, if we consider a major shift in that mentality, which for me, that is what this is, then that is one explanation and it becomes understandable. And if you'll notice, I said

 

Quote

I can understand being conservative in the SP, with a corker of an FS, in hope that this is what is going to ultimately sway the pendulum onto his side if he can establish consistency throughout the season and go clean in the Olympics.

 

So I do understand what you're saying.

My point is, this strategy also has its own risks and that is my opinion, which I am going to stick to. I hope all the ifs here fall onto your side of the argument and it ends with a 2xOGM!

[meoima]

Just now, Floria said:

I guess we should wait and see what happens in a few months. it is still early and things can go many different ways. There is still a possibility of a new  SP or great changes in the current version of Chopin. And we know nothing about the FS still.

Well, knowing Yuzuru. I am sure he wants 4lz in both SP and LP and he is working for it. But at the end of the day, it all depends on risks and rewards. 

Will the rewards worth all the risks go along with adding 4lz in the SP? 

If Yuzuru somehow masters spead eagle 4lz spread eagle, them yes, he will add it. If not, then I am fine with 4lo // 3A and 4T3T.

[Floria]

Ahora, meoima said:

Well, knowing Yuzuru. I am sure he wants 4lz in both SP and LP and he is working for it. But at the end of the day, it all depends on risks and rewards. 

Will the rewards worth all the risks go along with adding 4lz in the SP? 

If Yuzuru somehow masters spead eagle 4lz spread eagle, them yes, he will add it. If not, then I am fine with 4lo // 3A and 4T3T.

Yes, I have no doubt he wants badly that 4Lz in both SP an FS. But probably this season he learned  not to take too much risk in the SP, mistakes are costly.  

[xeyra]

 

8 minutes ago, meoima said:

Well, knowing Yuzuru. I am sure he wants 4lz in both SP and LP and he is working for it. But at the end of the day, it all depends on risks and rewards. 

Will the rewards worth all the risks go along with adding 4lz in the SP? 

If Yuzuru somehow masters spead eagle 4lz spread eagle, them yes, he will add it. If not, then I am fine with 4lo // 3A and 4T3T.

 

I still want that 4Lz in both SP and FS, and I've always thought that the Chopin layout with 4T3T might be in preparation of eventually adding the 4Lz. But after doing the math and all the reasoning behind this kind of strategy, I feel that it's less of a risk to keep the 4Lo if he can assure himself that he can be reasonably clean with that layout. But, well, every strategy has its risks and this one has the additional Chopin 3.0 baggage.

 

Then again, this doesn't preclude him deciding to add the 4Lz by NHK or something, if he loses to Nathan at CoR. 

[meoima]

4 minutes ago, Yatagarasu said:

 

I never said that, now did I? I said that to me, if he doesn't add the 4Lz (the way his mentality and view of skating has been so far), considering the current field, that is not understandable. That is not the same as saying he must do something.

Of course, if we consider a major shift in that mentality, which for me, that is what this is, then that is one explanation and it becomes understandable. And if you'll notice, I said

 

 

So I do understand what you're saying.

My point is, this strategy also has its own risks and that is my opinion, which I am going to stick to. I hope all the ifs here fall onto your side of the argument and it ends with a 2xOGM!

I am sorry if I misunderstood you.  

 

Well all strategies have their own risks... if not this isn't life... 

I would say, the SP has a limit so if they all go clean, the score would be very close. So it might not worth it to risk for 1.5 point and lose 8-10 points in return.

 

I did say they would still put Yuzuru on top once he goes clean, and that at the same time they will give candies to others as much as they can. This isn't contracting. It just means he has less room to make errors. So even though I do find their way of scoring quite unfair and not based on the true quality that Yuzuru has put out there, there's nothing we can do.

 

The only way for Yuzuru is, to count on himself and skates as well as he can, make least mistakes or better, No mistake. 

 

And of course, we all wish for him to win.