Stats, Layouts, Strategy

[Old Cat Lady]

Now that everyone has 2 Grand Prix events, I compiled some different projected scores.  I go back and forth on whether it makes more sense to add this to the other thread or make a new one but concluded that it might be confusing to open a thread to a dead poll.  obviously mods should combine threads if they disagree

 

Average GOE received for clean(ish) elements across the Grand Prix - did not drop high and low.  If an element was never performed cleanly, I subbed the average of that type of element  

 

Nathan - layout keeps changing so hard to tell what he’s planning.  

PCS: 8.88, 8.74, 9, 9.06, 9.07 = 44.75/89.5

SP- 3a, 4f, 4t/3t* = 101.26

LP - 4f, 4t, 3f/3t, 3a, 4t/3t*, 3lz/2t/2lo*, 3lo* = 192.74

Total = 294

 

This last event has finally made me believe that he hasn't been able to do a 4 quad free skate.  But just in case he is holding back for some reason, I also figured a 4 quad and 5 quad free skate

LP layout 2 - 4f, 4lz, 3f/3t, 3a, 4t/3t*, 3lz/2t/2lo*, 4t* = 198.91,  Total=300.17

LP layout 3 - 4f, 4lz, 4s, 3a, 4t/3t*, 3lz/2t/2lo*, 4t/3t* = 203.16, Total = 304.42

 

Shoma

PCS: 9.22, 8.89, 9.03, 9.2, 9.14 = 45.48/90.96

SP: 4f, 4t/3t, 3a* = 107.09

LP: 4s, 4f, 4t, 4t/2t,  3a*, 3a/1e/3f*, 3s/3t* = 208.38

Total= 315.47

#Note - has under-rotated both his 4s on Grand Prix. Scores are for fully rotated 4s.  Subbed ave of other quads for 4s and ave of triple combos for 3s/3t

 

Hanyu

PCS: 9.53, 9.43, 9.67, 9.67, 9.67= 47.97/95.94

SP: 4s, 3a, 4t/3t* = 109.49

LP: 4lo, 4s, 4t, 3lo, 4t/3a seq, 3f/3t, 3a/1e/3s = 214.97

Total = 324.46

#Note - subbed ave of quads for 4lo and ave of quad combo for seq.  

 

Kolyada - I'm throwing him in because if the world shakes off its axis and he actually manages to skate clean, he is the next biggest threat.  I used stats from all events he entered because otherwise I wouldn't have enough data 

PCS: 9.05, 8.77,8.96, 9.02, 9.1 = 44.9/89.8

SP: 4t/3t, 3lz, 3a* = 99.84

LP: 4s, 4t/3t, 3lz, 3a, 3lo*, 3lz/1e/3s*, 3a/2t* = 193.46

Total = 293.31

 

His layout seems weird to me.  Little tweaks could add a lot of scoring potential but I suppose with how fragile he is they don't want to change things around too much.

 

Brown

PCS: 8.99, 8.9, 9.13, 9.06, 9.21

SP: 3f, 3a, 3lz/3t* = 95.38

LP: 2a, 3a/3t, 3s, 3lo, 3a/2t/2lo, 3f/3t = 179.25

Total: 274.63

 

Cha

PCS: 7.97, 7.67, 7.97, 8.05, 8.03

SP: 4s, 3lz/3lo, 3a* = 92.47

FS: 4t, 4s, 3lz/3lo, 3a/2t*, 3a*, 3f/1e/3s, 3lo* = 177.33

Total: 269.80

 

Jin

PCS: 8.24, 7.76, 8.14, 8.08, 8.19

SP: 4lz/3t, 4t, 3a* = 96.78

FS: 4lz, 4s, 4t/2t, 4t, 3a/1e/3s*, 3a*, 3lz/3t*=188.57

Total: 285.35

 

Max GOE: These are their scores using their highest points achieved during the season for each element, even if they didn’t ever perform it cleanly.

 

Nathan

PCS: 9, 8.86, 9.18, 9.18, 9.25

Layout 1: 103.97+197.65 = 301.62

Layout 2: 103.97 + 203.13 = 307.10

Layout 3: 103.97+ 208.72 = 312.69

#Note - used point total if he got a 3 GOE on 4s

 

Shoma

PCS: 9.35, 9.05, 9.35, 9.35, 9.4 = 46.5

103.97 + 204.95 = 308.92

 

Hanyu

PCS: 9.57, 9.46, 9.71, 9.64, 9.71 = 47.97

110.72 + 210.65 = 321.37

 

Other Notable scores (all averages include scores of all judges)

step sequence

Hanyu: 3.92

Chen: 3.89 - until the IDF free skate, he had the highest average 

Uno: 3.83

I find this notable because a core bullet is 1) deep edges, clean steps and turns yet Chen received 4+ GOE on step sequences that were sloppy enough to lose 2 levels and skates on the shallowest edges of the 3

 

Choreo Sequence

Chen: 3.67

Uno: 3.44

Hanyu: 3.17

 

Clean Axel GOE:

Kolyada : 4.29 (from all events)

Uno: 4.04 (GP events)

Hanyu: 3.56

Chen: 1.72 (2.83 at SkAm, .61 in France - thought the drastic difference was interesting)

Highest quad GOE:

Chen: 3.78- 4t

Hanyu: 4.44 - 4t

Hanyu: 4.04 - 4s

Uno: 3.39 - 4t

 

Ave clean solo quad GOE

Chen: 1.85

Hanyu: 4.13

Uno: 3.06

Kolyada (across all events): 3

 

Clean solo triples

Chen: 2.51

Hanyu: 3.19

Uno: 4.04 (only does 3 axel as a solo triple)

Kolyada (across all events): 3.19

 

Clean quad combos

Chen: 1.89

Hanyu: 3.44

Uno: 3.33

Kolyada (across all events): 3.17

 

I'm sure I made mistakes, but I thought this still gives a good idea of where the guys are at right now. I looked on that other forum and most people are placing Chen ahead of Uno but Nathan's barely stayed ahead even though Uno's made 3 major errors in one event and 4 in the other - and that doesn't count the under rotation on the 4 sal (as opposed to 1 major error in both of Nathan's events).  Right now Nathan is banking on errors from the other guys even with a 5 quad free skate.  With Nathan's current layout, a good day for Kolyada could pass him.

[EisElle]

Thanks for the stats 

@sallycinnamon  maybe this could go in the general skating subforum tho, I see tech talk +other skaters too 

 

Back to the topic

Question: by clean you mean full BV+positive goe? (Asking because I don't remember if there were URs with positive goe)

 

Ouch poor Yuzu doesn't have the highest goe on 3A despite having the best 3A with hardest entry (ok Misha has a great 3A too when he's not popping it ) 

With the axis issue due to twizzle entry and the stamina issue in fs that's probably the most kuyashii Yuzu jump atm 😅 followed by 4Lo 

Also, mmh say what you want about the new Origin chsq being too short or having too little, but I fail to see what top two goe chsq have more and better than that... (and I've already commented on stsq goe)

 

Re: Nathan

I'd say 3F3T placement is highly suspicious there...imo he'll probably upgrade it to quad and try again the 4S or repeat 4F instead of 4T....tho with recent issues on flip (and the ! he got) maybe he won't go repeat F and keep stable and reliable 4T as repeated jump in second half (I suppose the bonus and goe make it as good as a 4F and with much higher consistency)..but I really have hard time believing Nathan will try less than 5 quads at WC...let's see if in gpf he'll go for cleaner skates again, even if Yuzu wd there will still be Shoma with similar BV in both sp and fs and imo clean vs clean the goe on 3A and maybe 4T (apparently 4F too?) and pcs will give it to Shoma...likely goe on spins too, if Shoma manages to keep spins centered, they're usually better

At the moment I'd bet my money on Nathan being cleaner, but despite being much more messy Shoma got higher total scores... so really he just needs to land all his combos...

[Old Cat Lady]

21 hours ago, LadyLou said:

Back to the topic

Question: by clean you mean full BV+positive goe? (Asking because I don't remember if there were URs with positive goe)

 

By clean(ish), I mean with no obvious or serious errors - i.e. step outs, called <, falls.  For the ave clean GOE, I tried to only include jumps that were around the quality of a normal landed jump for the skater, as opposed to the ideal jump for them.  

 

I think the only jump with negative GOE is Nathan's 3axel from his IDF free skate and I debated whether to include it but most would consider it clean and since he often has flawed axels even when clean, I thought it still reflected a decent jump by his standards.  I also debated whether to include Shoma's 4s since so far, it looks like that's just the way he lands it but decided that since he didn't get < called at Lombardia it indicates that he's at least capable of rotating enough to not get called.  

 

The intention was to see how an average group of judges might score them if they all skated reasonably well by their standards.  For example, Nathan's Sk America free  was the cleanest free skate I've ever seen him skate but the jumps still had minor flaws but I consider it unreasonable to expect him to have all perfect jumps when he's never skated that way before.  Yuzu is a more difficult case since he's actually had that skate with all perfect jumps but I wanted something that reflects a "normal" level rather than the once or twice in a life time skate.  I hope this makes some sense

Successful quad Attempts

Nathan - 62% - 8 (5 toes, 1 flip - !, SkAm Lz) / 5 Falls or step outs(<lz, <T, S, F!, F)

Yuzu- 76% - 13 (5 sal, 7T - 1 in messy combo, 1 lo - hooked landing) / 4 (< Lo, <T, S fall, T popped to double)

Shoma - 55% - 12 (5 f, 7t) / 10 (2 < but landed S, 1 S step out, 2 <w/fall or step out F, 4 toes w/falls of step outs)

Cha - 58.33% - 7 (4-s, 3-t), 3 falls, 2<s - including him because he's been consistent with good quality quads

Kolyada - 42% (4 T, 1 S) / 6 including pops

 

All Positive GOE skates in international competition

Nathan - 15.15%

2016 GPF fs

2016 Trophee de France SP

2017 4 Continents SP,

2017 US Classic FS (popped toe w/+ GOE)

2018 SkAm FS

 

Notable exclusions:

2018 Internationaux de France FS - arguably clean but had quality problems on 3 axel and 3t part of combo.  

 

Yuzu - 21.8% 

2012 NHK SP

2012 Skate America SP

2012 World LP - fall wasn't on an element

2014 GPF SP

2014 Olympic SP

2014 Olympic team SP

2015 World Team Trophy FS

2015 GPF LP

2015 GPF SP

2015 NHK

2015 NHK SP

2015 World Team Trophy FS

2015 worlds SP

2017 4 Continents SP - Popped 4s to 2s but still received +GOE for combo

2017 autumn classic sp

2017 Worlds FS

2018 Helsinki SP

2018 Olympics sp

2018 Rostelecom SP

 

Notable exclusions:

2011 Cup of China - don't get why judges marked down the toe.  looked good to me. - eta: just realized that this might be the 1% of the times they actually deducted when there are no steps before the solo triple.  I think it was originally supposed to be the combo

2012 Finlandia (edge call)

2014 WC FS - edge call, 2 clean but sloppy landings

2016 GPF short - technically clean but very weak landing on 4 loop

 

Uno - 13.79%

2014 Gardena Trophy SP

2016 Team Challenge Cup SP

2016 4 Continents SP

2017 worlds sp

2017 Skate Can SP

2018 4 Cont SP

2018 Lombardia SP

2018 Oly SP

 

Notable Exclusions - Didn't watch all these videos so don't know details, but these are programs that were at or barely below 0 on 1 element

2017.09 Lombardia Trophy - SP

2017.04 WTT - SP

2017.03 Coupe du Printemps SP

2015.12 GPF - FS

2015.11 Trophee Eric Bompard - SP

 

Kolyada - 11.11%

2018 Ondrej Nepela SP (turn on landing)

2018 Worlds SP

2017 cup of china SP (lvl 1 spin and twizzle stumble)

2016 worlds LP

2016 worlds SP

2015 Gardena Trophy SP

 

Cha - 25% - adding him because after seeing the others, I found him impressively consistent. 

2018.02 Olympics SP

2018.09 Autumn Cl SP

2018.10 Sk Can SP

[EisElle]

thank you for the explanation.

LOL at first when I read 5f I wondered when Shoma had landed a quint, while not even questioning Yuzu's 7T LOL my brain telling me to go and get some sleep I also blame that Ghana CM

 

I'm kinda surprised at the percentage of Shoma's all-positive-goe-skates', the feeling I have is that he tends to compete on quite high average without no particularly abysmal skates (I think in his senior career he hasn't had many skates comparable to Yuzu's ACI17 FS or SC15 SP). But that low percentage of all-positive-goe is probably due to how sometimes his landings are 'saved', so he is 'clean' but with some negative goe.

Also surprised at Nathan having more all-positive-goe free skates than short programs so weird...Yuzuru, Shoma and Misha instead pretty much confirm that it's more likely to be clean on a short... well, Nathan also has a smaller pool of senior skates but still, surprising he managed to have all positive goe 3 times with 4 or 5 quads...

 

weeping a little at how well Yuzuru's season had started

[Old Cat Lady]

2 hours ago, LadyLou said:

I'm kinda surprised at the percentage of Shoma's all-positive-goe-skates', the feeling I have is that he tends to compete on quite high average without no particularly abysmal skates (I think in his senior career he hasn't had many skates comparable to Yuzu's ACI17 FS or SC15 SP). But that low percentage of all-positive-goe is probably due to how sometimes his landings are 'saved', so he is 'clean' but with some negative goe.

Also surprised at Nathan having more all-positive-goe free skates than short programs so weird...Yuzuru, Shoma and Misha instead pretty much confirm that it's more likely to be clean on a short... well, Nathan also has a smaller pool of senior skates but still, surprising he managed to have all positive goe 3 times with 4 or 5 quads...

 

I managed to find a couple more clean skates for Uno.  Just discovered RinkResults.com - that site is fantastic.  But yes, I found 5 skates that had 1 element barely below 0 and there's 1 skate that had a GOE at exactly 0.  I'll update the above post and I'm adding Cha.

 

For Nathan, keep in mind that the +GOE list includes pops.  U.S. classic only has 2 quads, 2018 Skate America has 3 quads, and 2016 GPF had 4 quads

[Old Cat Lady]

GPF is almost here.  

 

For me, the interesting thing about the 2 big guns isn't so much who wins but what is Nathan going to bring to the table?  Shoma's been the most consistent of the 3 leaders with his layout. Nathan's layout has been all over the place - his fans say that he's being conservative to focus on other things but the quality of his other elements weren't any better in France.  Others say that he's being conservative because he doesn't need the tech in the fields he's been in - and while that's true, the big boys tend to use these early competitions as practice so it's interesting that he doesn't use them to test run his elements.  The third theory is that he's just working the system since quality is supposed to be more rewarded with this system - but scoring trends indicate that Shoma will wipe the floor with him if he manages to skate anywhere close to clean.  I personally think that Nathan's lost consistency on his jumps and that's why he's watering his programs down.  His only reliable quad this year has been the toe.  

 

I think this event and how he responds to it will reveal a lot about what Nathan's goals are for this year.  If it's just to remain in the mix until he re-prioritizes skating in a couple years, then his best bet is to play the odds and try to skate a conservative layout cleanly.  Yes, there's a chance of a clean Kolyada beating him, but there's also a chance of winning the Power Ball.  The likelihood is that even with a couple mistakes, he'll beat everyone except Hanyu and Uno. Even if he skates cleanly, he's not beating a mostly clean Hanyu or Uno.  And if Uno keeps delivering with the falls or Hanyu implodes, Nathan has a shot at better than bronze.  Whereas if he bombs a harder program, he can lose to a number of the second tier skaters.

 

If Nathan ups the quad count, then it indicates that he's in it to win it this year.  Raf seems like a smart guy - he has to know that Nathan needs at least 1 more quad than Uno if he wants to have any control of the outcome.

 

On Shoma's part, I'm confused as to why he's doing 3s/3t as his combo.  I assume he's more comfortable with it than loop or lutz but still seems strange.   It probably doesn't make a difference for the GPF, but you would think he would want it for later - he has a shot at beating an imperfect Hanyu but he needs to scrape every point he can get.  Are the other 2 triples really that much worse for him?

 

The bronze pick is tough.  Keegan has hometown inflation and the highest score of the rest going for him but he's also been wildly inconsistent this year.  Brezina's score is trending the right way - Helsinki was almost 20 points higher than SkCan, SkCan was over 30 points higher than US Classic - did he peak in Helsinki or is it just another step in the overall trend?  Jun has been the steadiest.  While it's been a problem in previous years, none of Jun's landed quads have been called under-rotated this year so when he has been getting the < I think it's more a reflection of a problem with the jump itself rather than a technique issue.

 

In Jun's case, I think it's more about building toward the future.  His PCS keep going up even with more flawed skates.  He wants to continue to build that momentum -  focus on a solid foundation by skating his layout more cleanly to keep building those PCS and add in more difficulty in coming years.

 

I think the Uncles need to just go for broke.  They are unlikely to be contenders for medals in the biggest competitions so may as well put everything they have into any opportunity that comes their way.

 

Another interesting question is what exactly is Jason Brown's goal.  Is he trying to win medals on the world or Olympic stage?  I personally don't see it happening even if he stabilizes a quad.  So far in his career, he is 0 for 17 in his quad attempts.  His non-quad layout can get him enough points to win medals in most events if skated well.  He's already certain to get at least one of the world team spots.  Though I suppose he wants to get the quad to try to stay in the mix when it's time to pick the Olympic team in 4 years.  If he's hellbent on that quads, he needs to get that competition practice under his belt even if it means losing medals in the short term.

 

I edited the original post to include Jin, Brown, and Cha since the competition amongst the dark horses is just as interesting as among the leaders.  I don't see Messing, Brezina, or Voronov being long term contenders so didn't put the work into them but might do so in the future if they continue with good results.

 

[Old Cat Lady]

http://cloud.isu.org/index.php/s/lQgpjqo5tDnzjbP#pdfviewer

 

Chen

BV: 47.67+94.39 = 142.08

Projected Score: 101.26 + 201.62 = 302.88

Majorly upgraded tech though I trust Chen to follow his submitted program content even less than I trust Yuzu to tell the whole truth

 

Uno

BV: 47.1+91.43 = 138.53

PS: 107.09+208.22 = 315.30

 

Cha

BV: 42.9+97.95=124.1

PS: 92.78 + 177.95 = 270.73

 

I don't have the stats for the other 3 guys so this is just a rough estimate based on their higher scoring events

Messing

BV: 82.13 + 41.59 = 123.72

PS: 96.87 + 191.36 = 288.23

Quad lutz added to his layout!

 

Brezina

BV: 41.6 + 77.81 = 119.41

PS: 93.58 + 18087 = 274.45

 

Voronov

BV: 51.21  + 99.24 = 125.42

92.48 + 181.78 = 274.25

Quad loop added to his layout!  Looks like his aiming hard for not last.

 

Average total scores 

I also added points lost through mistakes in their previous competitions to their totals and averaged the scores out.

Chen - 285.87

Uno - 307.75

Cha - 269.69

[Old Cat Lady]

post GPF/Golden Spin update

 

Ave Clean GOE's

Uno - 9.36, 8.96, 9.32, 9.32, 9.39

SP: 4f, 4t/3t, 3a* = 107.39

FS: 4s, 4f, 4t, 4t/2t, 3a, 3a/e/3f, 3s/3t = 207.45

Total: 314.84

 

Chen - 8.88, 8.74, 9, 9.06, 9.07

SP: 3a, 4f, 4t/3t* = 104.01

FS: 4f, 4lz, 4t, 3a, 4t/3t*, 3lz/3t*, 3f/e/3s* = 203.19

Total: 307.21

 

Kolyada - 9.05, 8.74, 8.99, 9, 9.06

SP: 4t/3t, 3lz, 3a* = 99.54

FS: 4s, 4t/3t, 3lz, 3a, 3lo*, 3lz/3/2s*, 3a/2t* = 189.53

Total: 289.07

*This score is lower than previous total because I assumed that the 3lz/e/2s was a popped 3s but looked at the layout and realized that it was intended that way.

 

Brown - PCS: 9.01, 8.89, 9.09, 9.05, 9.18

SP:  3f, 3a, 3lz/3t* = 95.16

FS: 2a, 3a/3t, 3s, 3lo, 3a/2t/2lo*, 3f/3t*, 3lz* = 178.2

Total: 273.36

 

Cha - 8.1, 7.81, 8.12, 8.16, 8.16

SP: 4s, 3lz/3lo, 3a* = 93.18

FS: 4t, 4s, 3lz/3lo, 3a/2t, 3a*, 3f/e/3s*, 3lo = 178.42

Total: 271.6

 

Interesting to note that a no quad Brown has a higher potential average than a 3 quad Cha

 

Max Earned Points 

Chen: 8.88, 8.74, 9, 9.06, 9.07

106.08+209.69=315.77

 

Uno: 9.35, 9.05, 9.35, 9.35, 9.4

105.55+207.35 = 312.9

*Note: as far as I can tell, Shoma's only been credited for fully rotated 4s twice in his career - 2017 GPF and 2017 Lombardia, which, of course, were under old rules (did not yet check to see if he landed backwards in those competitions).  However, <4s still earns him more points than he would likely get with a 3lz anyway and if he every does get full credit, it brings his score up around 4.5 pts.  eta: they look around 1/4 turn short at those events too.  Looks like that's just how he lands it

 

Kolyada: 9.05, 8.74, 8.99, 9, 9.06

102.44+193.98=296.42

 

Cha: 8.43, 8.21, 8.43, 8.5, 8.46

97.41+186.52 = 283.93

* Since his scores are generally trending up, I think this is the more relevant metric.  

 

 

 

 

 

[xeyra]

 

Did this for the top 3 men, will so for some ladies too.

[Old Cat Lady]

5 hours ago, xeyra said:

 

Did this for the top 3 men, will so for some ladies too.

 

The difference in PCS is a methodology difference  - I substituted clean SP PCS for FS PCS.  I figured let's be honest, judges give skaters, not programs, PCS scores, which is why Nathan can literally double the number of crossovers throughout the season and the PCS continues to rise.

 

It looks like you also differentiated SP and FS scores whereas I used the highest element score between both and plugged it into all like elements.

 

Looks like I made a mistake with Shoma.  Plugged in the wrong number for 4t/3t (edited above) and I took his JPN Open score for 3a/e/3f and 3s/3t.

 

[xeyra]

9 hours ago, Old Cat Lady said:

 

The difference in PCS is a methodology difference  - I substituted clean SP PCS for FS PCS.  I figured let's be honest, judges give skaters, not programs, PCS scores, which is why Nathan can literally double the number of crossovers throughout the season and the PCS continues to rise.

 

It looks like you also differentiated SP and FS scores whereas I used the highest element score between both and plugged it into all like elements.

 

Looks like I made a mistake with Shoma.  Plugged in the wrong number for 4t/3t (edited above) and I took his JPN Open score for 3a/e/3f and 3s/3t.

 

 

Yeah, I used only the best GOE across competitions per segment, so even if Shoma's best 4F score was in his FS, I only used his best GOE for the 4F in his SPs for that segment. Since both segments are different beasts, I like to differentiate. I also tend to choose GOE only for jumps done in the second half only from that second half, even when they've been done them in previous layouts in the first half, but I fudged it a bit with Yuzu's 4T because his only solo second half 4T was an underrotated mess and I didn't have any other values to go off on. 

 

I'm finishing off the ladies, just want to add in two junior girls in the mix first. 

[xeyra]

BTW, just to see the difference between a 4T2T and a 4T3T, Shoma's best score for his 4T2T in the SP was still lower than a base value 4T3T, hence why I chose to do 4T3T at 0 GOE than 4T2T at its best GOE, which is basically what he's landed so far in his SP, when he doesn't +COMBO it.