2019/2020 Senior Ladies

[Old Cat Lady]

New Projections.  

 

Trusova - Skate Canada - still using 8.5 for PCS as she's yet to reach that but she's creeping closer

	Actual TES	Actual PCS	Actual Total
SP	40.96	33.44	74.4
LP	100.2	67.42	167.62
Ded:	-1		241.02
	Proj TES	Proj PCS	Projected Total
SP	42.69	34.00	76.69
LP	109.02	68.00	177.02
			253.71
BV:	33.78	89.40	123.18

 

Kostornaya - IdF - used her LP PCS for both as her PCS rose drastically and I think it is more reflective of what her actual PCS will be than her previous PCS high. This is an example where Trusova's PCS rising with her TES could actually make a difference in an event where both go clean. I think most would agree that Kostornaya should have significantly higher PCS than Trusova - and I would say more than the 9 point gap.  

 

It also looks like a clean Kostornaya would beat a clean Scherbakova in spite of Sherbakova's 7 point BV advantage.

	Actual TES	Actual PCS	Actual Total
SP	42.98	33.57	76.55
LP	88.38	71.07	159.45
	deduction:		227.76
	Proj TES	Proj PCS	Actual Total
SP	48.66	35.54	84.20
LP	89.44	71.07	160.51
			244.71
BV:	37.65	70.15	107.80

 

 

Kihira - Skate Canada

	Actual TES	Actual PCS	Actual Total
SP	45.96	35.39	81.35
LP	77.5	71.48	148.98
			230.33
	Proj TES	Proj PCS	Proj Total
SP	45.96	35.80	81.76
LP	84.38	71.49	155.87
			237.63
BV	36.19	65.97	102.16

 

Zagitova - IdF.  Here's another example of the PCS inflation possibly causing a flipping of results in a close contest.  I replaced all of Zagitova's mistakes with a 3 GOE since there were multiple.  This is higher than a lot of her other jumps at this competition but lower than what she's gotten in the past.  I consider a 1 point difference in projections to essentially be a tie.  This reaffirms my belief that the results between Zagitova and Kihira will just come down to who makes fewer mistakes.

	Actual TES	Actual PCS	Actual Total
SP	38.32	36.92	75.24
LP	68.85	72.97	141.82
	Deduction:	-1	216.06
	Projected TES	Projected PCS	Projected Total
SP	43.80	36.91	80.71
LP	81.58	74.34	155.92
			236.63
BV	33.63	64.94	98.57

[Old Cat Lady]

On 10/22/2019 at 1:51 PM, yuzuangel said:

I think if Alina skates clean she will still go. She needs to be crystal clean though. 

The question is, which of the 3A will she bump off the team? I feel like the ISU should eventually change the spots requirement but that's just me. instead of taking spots from the smaller feds, just make it harder for large feds to get 3 spots.

 

sum of top 3 <= 8: 4 spots (pretty damn hard to get but at least it exists for the case if, say, Russian skaters sweep the podium or something)

sum of top 2 <= 12: 3 spots (also difficult)

sum of top 2 <= 18: 2 spots

 

if one skater:

top 10: 2 spots

 

basically you can only get n+1 more skater if you already have n skaters, no jumping from 1 to 3.

 

 

I would agree that they should rehaul the points system to allow an extra skater but with very strict standards to get the 4th skater and the 4th skater would also have to be in the top 20 scores.

 

I think instead of completely eliminating the possibility to go from 1 to 3, a fed could earn that 3rd spot if their entrant finishes in the top 3, but the 3rd entrant would have to be within the top 20 season's best before the next worlds

 

The purpose of limiting the number of entrants is based on the idea that in order to grow the sport, more countries need a stake.  But I don't see why we need to make it easier to get 2 entrants to fulfill this purpose. I think they should eliminate the points cap for a 2nd skater. If that country can't produce an additional skater good enough to make the FS, I don't see why they should get help getting 2 entrants. Of course, this would also require a change to 3 skater qualifications but I don't think it would be that hard to adjust.

 

On 10/26/2019 at 12:36 PM, Salior said:

Precisely. The girls can do 4Lz, 4S, 4T, but all of them only have 2A.

 

Something must be up, anyone with common sense can see that there's a gap in logic there. And what's the difference between the Axel and the rest? It's a forward jump so it's physically impossible to pre-rotate >90 degrees! And it's proven by scientific concepts too. Sad that not many people know about this. 

 

I've often thought this as well - not only for the ladies but some of the men.  Even though the men can do the 3 axel, some of them have more stable quads than 3 axels and I think this may be because they're actually doing less rotation on the quads.

[Old Cat Lady]

Redoing projections.  Same methodology as the men

 

1	Trusova
	SP:	2a, 3f, 3lz/3lo*
	FS:	4s, 4lz, 4t/3t, 2a, 4t/e/3s, 3lz/3lo
	PCS:	33.92 - Rostelecom SP
	BV:	123.18
	Ave Proj Score	248.37
2	Kostornaya
	SP:	3a, 3lz, 3f/3t*
	FS:	3a2t, 3a, 2a, 3f/3t*, 3f/e/3s*, 3lz*
	PCS:	36.17 - NHK FS
	BV:	107.8
	Ave Proj Score	246.99
3	Kihira
	SP:	3a, 3f/3t, 3lo*
	SP PCS:	35.8 - WTT
	FS:	3a, 3a/2t, 3f, 3s, 3f/3t,*, 2a/2t/2lo*, 3lo*
	FS PCS:	71.49
	BV:	102.16
	Ave Proj Score	236.75
	Alternate layout:	SP - 3a, 3f/3t, 3lz*
		FS - 4s<, 3a/2t, 3f, 3a, 3f/3t*, 3lo/2t/2lo*, 3lz*
		BV: 109.58
	Proj. Score:	242.16

 

I put Kihira above Scherbakova in spite of a lower projected score because Scherbakova has gotten a lot more < or ! calls.  Kihira also doesn't have her layout maxed out so I did a projection with that - since it looks like all the videos of Kihira's 4s are under rotated, I calculated with 4s< with GOE -1.

 

4	Scherbakova
	SP:	2a, 3f, 3lz/3lo*
	FS:	4lz/3t, 4lz, 2a, 2a, 3lz/3lo*, 3f/e/3s*, 3lz*
	PCS:	33.98 - Sk Am FS
	BV:	114.16
	Ave Proj Score	238.35
5	Zagitova
	SP:	3lz, 2a, 3f/3lo*
	SP PCS:	36.92 - 2019 Worlds
	FS:	3lz, 2a/3t, 3s, 2a, 3lz/3lo*, 3f/2t/2lo*, 3f*
	FS PCS:	71.49
	BV:	99.06
	Ave Proj Score	234.75
7	Tuktamysheva	229.43
8	You	226.62
9	Medvedeva	226.18
10	Tennell
	SP:	3lz/3t, 2a, 3f*
	SP PCS:	34.71 - WTT (?)
	FS:	3lz/3t, 2a, 3s, 2a, 3lz/3t*, 3f*, 3lo/2t*
	FS PCS:	71.2
	BV:	93.69
	Ave Proj Score:	221.19
11	Bell	218.29
12	Miyahara	214.49

 

 Miyahara's was the most difficult because you know she's going to get multiple < but she didn't get the same < calls in both competitions.