Guess Everyone's layouts

[Ashley2162018]

1 hour ago, Henni147 said:

My latest calculations in the general chat made me realize some really crazy things in the current scoring system. I'd like to summarize everything here:

 

1. Short program

The layout with the highest possible base value and scoring potential is the following:

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Element	BV	max. GOE	max. TES
4Lz	11.50	5.75	17.25
3A	8.00	4.00	12.00
X 4A+3Lz	20.24	6.25	26.49
CCSp4	3.20	1.60	4.80
FLSp4	3.20	1.60	4.80
CCoSp4	3.50	1.75	5.25
StSq4	3.90	1.95	5.85
Total	53.54	22.90	76.44

 

The 4A+3Lz combo with change of rotation direction is allowed, but I don't think that anyone will ever attempt it... Even a 4A+3T would be very ambitious, especially in the second half, but that might be possible. I was a bit surprised that layback spins have higher value than sit spins but... well whatever.

 

2. Free skating

Now it's getting interesting. To get the highest scoring layout, we need 11 jumps and repeat the quad and triple with the highest BV:

4A (2×), 4Lz, 4F, 4Lo, 4S, 4T, 3A (2×), 3Lz and 3F. Now we have to distribute them.

 

The layout with the highest possible base value would be this one:

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Element	BV	max. GOE	max. TES
4T	9.50	4.75	14.25
3A	8.00	4.00	12.00
3Lz	5.90	2.95	8.85
3F	5.30	2.65	7.95
X 4A+4Lo	25.30	6.25	31.55
X 4iA+4S	24.42	6.25	30.67
X 3iA+4F+4Lz	33.55	5.75	39.30
FCSp4	3.20	1.50	4.80
CCoSp4	3.50	1.75	5.25
FCCoSp4	3.50	1.75	5.25
StSq4	3.90	1.95	5.85
ChSq1	3.00	2.50	5.50
Total	129.07	42.15	171.22

 

We don't talk about the difficulty of the three combos, okay?  That little "i" means inside edge landing.

 

However, this is not the highest scoring layout, because the GOE for the solo triples is pretty low. For an ideal GOE output it's best to separate the seven highest scoring jumps and not to put them in combo (the 4A+4T is an exception, because a 4A+3A sequence would be a huge waste of BV):

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Element	BV	max. GOE	max. TES
4F	11.00	5.50	16.50
4Lo	10.50	5.25	15.75
4S	9.70	4.85	14.55
3A	8.00	4.00	12.00
X 4A+4T	24.20	6.25	30.45
X 4iA+3F+3Lz	26.07	6.25	32.32
X 3A+4Lz	21.45	5.75	27.20
FCSp4	3.20	1.60	4.80
CCoSp4	3.50	1.75	5.25
FCCoSp4	3.50	1.75	5.25
StSq4	3.90	1.95	5.85
ChSq1	3.00	2.50	5.50
Total	128.02	47.40	175.42

 

So 4+4 combos are not really worth the huge risk and effort. Not even in the second half, because the loss in GOE is higher than the 10% reward in BV.

 

 

I want to go away from ridiculous layouts and suggest one, which is extremely tough but realistic imo:

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SP:

Jumps: 4A, 3A // 4T+3T

Spins/Seq: FCSp4, CSSp4, CCoSp4, StSq4

BV: 49.17   Max. GOE: 21.80   Max. TES: 70.97   Max. TSS: 120.97

 

FS:

Jumps: 4A, 4Lz, 4F, 4S // 4T+3T, 3A+3T, 3A+1Eu+3S

Spins/Seq: FCSp4, CCoSp4, FCCoSp4, StSq4, ChSq1

BV: 104.17   Max. GOE: 44.65   Max. TES: 148.47   Max. TSS: 248.47

 

Max. combined total: 369.44

With this layout and two clean skates it's not impossible to surpass 350. The GOE potential is nearly maximized in both programs.

As a comparison the max. GOE for this season's layouts: Otonal: 20.40  Origin: 38.25

 

Maybe a 100% healthy Yuzu could do it, but I'm not sure, if his damaged ankle survives this... 5 quads and 2 triple Axels in 4:00... and we're talking about 4A, 4Lz and 4F in one program... 

 

 

A full-force SP and 6-quad-FS layout for Nathan could look like this (maybe he would work on a quad+1Eu+3S combo to replace the 2T+2T, but that wouldn't make much difference in points):

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SP:

Jumps: 4Lz+3T, 3A // 4F

Spins/Seq: CCSp4, FSSp4, CCoSp4, StSq4

BV: 49.40   Max. GOE: 22.05   Max. TES: 71.45   Max. TSS: 121.45

 

FS:

Jumps: 4Lz+3T, 4Lo, 4S, 3A // 4F, 4T+3T, 4T+2T+2T

Spins/Seq: CCSp4, CCoSp4, FCCoSp4, StSq4, ChSq1

BV: 101.48   Max. GOE: 44.40   Max. TES: 145.88   Max. TSS: 245.88

 

Max. combined total: 367.33

So we can see that a 5-quad-program from Yuzu with 4A, 4Lz, 4F could have a higher BV than a 6-quad-program from Nathan. The 4A, the additional 3A and the 10% bonus for the three combos make the difference.

I wonder how creative yuzu will get.

However he really needs those ankles to heal.

And I wondet who among the juniors now will take on the challenge too.

[Old Cat Lady]

It seems that people here don't think anyone is going to do a 5 quad layout.  I don't mean to underestimate Yuzu, but I think realistically, we should only anticipate 1 new jump, which looks like the 4lutz.

 

So then the question becomes, which jump will he drop for the lutz?  Looks like others think it will be the loop.  But if the goal is to increase his base value, the better choice will be the salchow.  in 2017, when he landed it, he got higher GOE for the loop than the salchow and while the salchow is more consistent, between the two, it has also been the jump that has failed him more on the bigger occasions - 2017 4CC SP, 2017 Worlds SP, and now 2019 Worlds SP. There might be a mental reason to drop it, though obviously there is the physical reason to drop the loop since it takes off on the right ankle. 

 

I don't think it will be the toe because it's about as consistent as his axel at this point and is only worth .02 less than the salchow

 

Honestly, I think Yuzu's best strategy is to announce his retirement so he can spend a year healing then focusing on working on his jumps instead of preparing for competitions.  Nothing short of getting involved in the corruption himself is going to stop the political issues, which we know he won't do. Nathan and Vincent's scores will continue to inflate whether he's there or not.  The only thing he can do to fight that is to up his own tech.

 

btw, keep in mind that Nate was practicing a 5 quad layout at worlds. I think that is the long term plan. And actually, Yuzu being "retired" might actually benefit him psychologically. Pretty sure Yuzu is the primary reason Nate is working on that 5 quad layout. With him being "retired", other skaters might relax a little. Nate has consistently shown a pattern of only doing what he thinks is necessary. And yes, I know it's not Yuzu's mindset to want his opponents to be less; I'm just pointing out the strategic benefit.

[Old Cat Lady]

Don't  me.  I'm aware this is highly unlikely, but if Yuzu really does bring both 4 axel and 4 lutz back next year and we're operating under the assumption that none of the men will do a 5 quad layout, he could do

 

SP: 4a, 3a, 4t/3t* = BV 49.17

LP: 4a/2t, 4a, 4lz, 3f, 4t/3t*, 3a*, 3a/e/3s* = 98.55

Total BV: 147.12

GOE 3: 186.06

 

SP: 4a, 3a, 4t/3t* = BV 49.17

LP: 4a, 4lz, 4t, 3a, 4t/3t*, 3f/3a seq*, 3a/e/3s* = 99.25

Total BV: 148.42

GOE 3: 187.27

 

Nate's 5 quad fs that he was practicing at worlds + his actual SP = 146.72, GOE 3 = 184.58

 

Of course, they both have options to up their BV from here, but I was trying to keep it somewhat within the realm of possibility.  

 

I was also thinking that Yuzu should drop his Biellmann for competition.  Not only does it tend to cause long term back problems but Yuzu normally has to replace it with A-spin, which is not only ugly but causes him to lose .2 in bv.  Which doesn't sound like much, but why give away free points?  He's better off learning a new spin that'll be 3.2 bv consistently and not switching back and forth means that the spins he uses get more practice.