Henni147

I'm rewatching CiONTU with my mom right now and I totally cracked up

If I remember correctly, Olys 3A was used as a paramount example for 1. Very good height and length 2. Difficult/creative/unexpected entry These two bullet points are probably those that can be measured/identified best (besides very good take-off and landing). With mama IceScope and daddy VideoReplay it shouldn't be a problem. So let's be honest: these are the three bullets that really "should" count. The other bullets (effortless, good body position and fitting music/rhythm) are less specific and more subjective, especially "effortless". For me a jump with short preparation, solid air position and good landing+running edge is effortless. It's a mix of three other bullets, so you can skip this one completely. I think, Yuzu could have a little chance for +5 GOE, if he jumped his 3A from the stands, 1.2m height, 5m distance and finished with a backward Y-spiral exit, but I'm not 100% sure. EDIT: The 3A in the webinar video wasn't introduced as a +5 GOE jump, but it received +3s across the board in competition. That should equal +5 in the new system and ISU knows that.

Yo, thanks! That's true, 4A in the second half would be higher indeed I've corrected it in this summary (I think this topic fits better in the layout thread) @WinForPooh I agree with you that the memories of the 4Lz injury are still vivid and practicing so many dangerous quads everyday will be very hard for him. I honestly don't believe that we will see five different quads in one program from him and my heart prays that it won't be necessary... I don't want to see that two skaters blow away the rest of the world with +100 points in the combined total. The gap between Yuzu, Nathan and the others is spooky enough already.

My latest calculations in the general chat made me realize some really crazy things in the current scoring system. I'd like to summarize everything here: 1. Short program The layout with the highest possible base value and scoring potential is the following: The 4A+3Lz combo with change of rotation direction is allowed, but I don't think that anyone will ever attempt it... Even a 4A+3T would be very ambitious, especially in the second half, but that might be possible. I was a bit surprised that layback spins have higher value than sit spins but... well whatever. 2. Free skating Now it's getting interesting. To get the highest scoring layout, we need 11 jumps and repeat the quad and triple with the highest BV: 4A (2×), 4Lz, 4F, 4Lo, 4S, 4T, 3A (2×), 3Lz and 3F. Now we have to distribute them. The layout with the highest possible base value would be this one: We don't talk about the difficulty of the three combos, okay? That little "i" means inside edge landing. However, this is not the highest scoring layout, because the GOE for the solo triples is pretty low. For an ideal GOE output it's best to separate the seven highest scoring jumps and not to put them in combo (the 4A+4T is an exception, because a 4A+3A sequence would be a huge waste of BV): So 4+4 combos are not really worth the huge risk and effort. Not even in the second half, because the loss in GOE is higher than the 10% reward in BV. I want to go away from ridiculous layouts and suggest one, which is extremely tough but realistic imo: With this layout and two clean skates it's not impossible to surpass 350. The GOE potential is nearly maximized in both programs. As a comparison the max. GOE for this season's layouts: Otonal: 20.40 Origin: 38.25 Maybe a 100% healthy Yuzu could do it, but I'm not sure, if his damaged ankle survives this... 5 quads and 2 triple Axels in 4:00... and we're talking about 4A, 4Lz and 4F in one program... A full-force SP and 6-quad-FS layout for Nathan could look like this (maybe he would work on a quad+1Eu+3S combo to replace the 2T+2T, but that wouldn't make much difference in points): So we can see that a 5-quad-program from Yuzu with 4A, 4Lz, 4F could have a higher BV than a 6-quad-program from Nathan. The 4A, the additional 3A and the 10% bonus for the three combos make the difference.

This is just theoretical: ISU allows you to jump two different quads plus one 3A in the short and seven quads plus two 3As in the free (nine quads plus three 3A in total). The layout with the highest possible BV under current rules (without quints) is: SP: 4A, 3A // 4Lz+3Lz (with change of rotation direction), CCoSp4, FLSp4, CCSp4, StSq4 BV: 53.44 FS (edited): 4T, 3A, 3Lz, 3F // 4A+4Lo, 4iA+4S, 3iA+4F+4Lz (with change of rotation direction) (i = inside edge landing), FCCoSp4, CCoSP4, FCSp4, StSq4, ChSq1 BV: 129.07 Never say never, but I say that this will never happen People say that Nathan could land six quads plus one 3A in the FS: 4Lz, 4F, 4Lo, 4S, 4T (2×), 3A I have my doubts that he can, but we will see.

Yes. That's why I would calculate with 5 quads in 4:00 minutes. Even 6 are veeery ambitious with spins and steps and transitions inbetween. I don't expect any skater to attempt 7 quads in the free. EDIT: in Yuzu's case 5 quads and 2 triple Axels should be really tough to beat. Just imagine a system-friendly content like this: I say system-friendly, because: At the moment jumps with the biggest benefit/output are solo jumps with high base value. They receive full GOE award and the judges tend to give +4 and +5 more often for solo jumps than combos. In combinations only the jump with the highest BV is credited with GOE, the rest can go home. So it makes sense to pair jumps with high and low BV in combos and put them into the second half to max out the reward. Sequences are punished twice: -20% BV and GOE credit for only one jump. So the 3A is an absolute loser in this sort of sequence judging. [In his FS in Saitama his solo 4T received 13.30 points, the sequence earned 18.52, so poor baby 3A got away with a bit more than 5 points. That equals a solo 3A with both hands down.] The FS layout above combined with the following SP layout could have multiple advantages for Yuzu:

An overall quad restriction in the free was discussed but not adopted, if I'm not mistaken. If you can jump all six types and repeat one in combo, 7 quads in total are still possible. Plus two in the short make 9 quads in one competition.

Sequences are not allowed in the SP plus the Axel jump (here 3A) cannot be repeated as a solo or combo jump. So the 4T+3A seq would be double-invalid. What he can do (and it's not unlikely imo): 4A, 3A, 4T+3T (+10%) In the free... Beat me, but if he ever manages to do 4A, 4Lz AND 4F in the same program, he will say goodbye to 4Lo. That's my guess, since Yuzu said himself that the 4Lo depends too much on the ice conditions and is the least reliable quad (so it's not worth the low BV). [And it messes up the quality of his 4S...] You could argue: "But what if Nathan lands 6 quads and outscores him on GOE and PCS?" 1. Nathan will have to deal with the 4Lo/4S rivalry and wonky conditions, too. So the chance that he skates clean with 6 quads is not very high. (Kudos to him, if he can, but I don't think it's very likely). 2. If Yuzu is able to do the 4A in both short and free, he will have the GOE advantage: The max. GOE for the 4A is 6.25. Even with average +3s he can score nearly 4 GOE. Add a 4Lz or 4F with 4 GOE and everyone can go home. However. Yuzu's health has top priority at the moment and it's uncertain, if his ankle is able to bear so many quads... Let's say he jumps 10 quads per day and we have 200 practice days per season (is that realistic?) That would mean 6000 quads until Beijing... EDIT: I think the 350 point barrier is somewhere on the radar (SP 115 + FS 235). Incredibly hard, but not impossible. 400 points are impossible without multiple quintuples and I don't believe that we will see anyone surpassing it during the next cycles.

I had a dream today and when I woke up at 06:18, I had to go to my desk and draw immediately so that I didn't forget a single detail. It was totally weird and captivating at the same time: I honestly have no idea, where this image came from, but I had to save it on a piece of paper and share it here as quickly as possible. It's sad that I couldn't reproduce it 1:1, but I hope it's good enough to create a rough idea

I'm so sorry...

And his final blog entry will kill us all:

I wouldn't be surprised at all, if Yuzu did the following SP layout in the future: Solo jump: 4A Axel jump: 3A Combo jump: 4T+3T (10% bonus) And ISU would react with a new rule: Communication #108715: In the short program at least three different types of jumps must be executed.

In the short program a jump error is very costly, especially if you pop your solo jump into a double or single. That's an invalid element, it receives 0 points and there's no chance for a second attempt. That's what happened to Yuzu in his SP in Saitama. 4S pop, 12 points gone and he was punished on other elements and PCS, too. In the free a pop is annoying, too, but you can change your layout and reduce the damage to a minimum. Yuzu is a master in the YOLO-department.

For everyone who is interested in Yuzu's scoring data of the 2018/19 season. I've created a table with average GOE/success rates and calls/LV for every element: It's the sequel of a very similar table for all of his elements under the +/-3 System from 2015/16 to 2017/18. You can look at it here as a comparison:

I think the key message of Yuzu's blog entries is:

How about adressing the judges, S. Hamilton, TSL and every other annoying species with a black eyed 'piece'?

I think Yuzuru Hanyu is the first beauty blogger in the world, who likes to talk about everything except beauty related stuff I have a little dream, but I don't think that this will ever happen. Jason's 360° practice videos at TCC inspired me: How would you think about something like this? Would you support this? I'm not sure, but if I was able to skate like him and had the time, I think I would try it. There are some themes and stories that I could transport better in a calm and silent atmosphere without noises and pressure... (even EXs and shows are pressure settings in some way).

Oh yes, the Planet is back Yuzu wants to start his dream career as a professional beekeeper as soon as possible. Obviously.

Yuzu is the smartest fool in the history of April Fools' Day. Completely bomb the 6-min-warm-up, leave everyone in shock and silence and then pull off the greatest freeskate up to date

I ask myself: what's left from the program, if you skip all the jumps or treat them as choreographic touches? 1. Yuzu (won't repeat all 147 reasons) 2. Aymoz (quality seal for most innovative programs and moves) 3. Cizo (I know, it's hard to compare singles and ice dance, but watching Cizo stroking is so satisfying... ) 4. Jason (love his SP and style in general, the FS not so much) 5. Matteo, Kolyada or Shoma (depends on my daily mood)

Thank you! That's what I tried to put into words yesterday. Yuzu's skating doesn't look rehearsed or studied step by step. It's more like a mood and very natural. You can experience this best in his practice sessions. His spontaneous stroking, gliding and jumping to others' music looks better than most competitive skates. That's why he has full house and goosebump atmosphere during practice. Even if he portraits someone specific like Seimei or skates a tribute to his idol, he's not a copycat. Yuzu is always Yuzu on and off the ice and that's why I love him so much.

I want to be honest: I cannot rank Yuzu's programs in any order. Each of them has something very unique, touching and memorable and a special role in Yuzu's skating journey. To put Otonal below LGC would minor the greatness of Otonal's step sequence and sublime build up, but other way round LGC wouldn't receive the credit it deserved for its epic choreo, musicality and playfulness. Same with Chopin and Parisienne Walkways and older SPs, FSs and EXs. They all have very strong aspects, but room for improvement as well. Nevertheless I can watch all of them again and again and never get tired. They're all Yuzu for me. It would be great to see new programs, colors and styles in the future, but if Yuzu needs a choreo that he's familiar with, I'm fine with that, too. Whatever his decision is, he has my support.

I took the time to walk a little bit in the park today, enjoy the nature, fresh air and sunshine... and I think I finally found out why Yuzu and his skating are so magical and close to me.

It's hard to compare skates in two different judging systems, but for me LGC at GPF16 is one of the best short programs of all time. The shaky landing on the 4Lo with that lovely smile even fit the performance and the character of the music. That saving was really smart and the rest top quality skating throughout. When I see how many sloppy jumps receive +2/+3 GOE today...

LGC 2.0, GoT, Queen or something Japanese again. Support all of them I don't mind, if Yuzu cannot skate every single program to 100% potential in competition. But LGC is just too good to be left "unfinished" imo. Plus: It might be the program with the highest LVs and average GOEs ever rewarded under any judging system. The judges LOVED it and I loved it, too. Especially the playful and passionate GPF16 version. Petition for that one. I would really like to see Yuzu skating to Queen with a magnificent choreo. It doesn't have to be in competition. EX or ice show would be great, too. GoT: I love love love Ramin Djawadi's soundtrack, but I don't think it's very likely to happen... However, there's one thing for sure: Japanese music: It would be interesting to see Yuzu skating to some really good anime OST. I mean: he is the incorporation of a perfect Shonen hero and the cascade of quads and huge combos could fit some epic battle music very well. On the other hand I don't want him to sacrifice a single bit of his magic and sublime artistry for the sake of quads and points. I don't want him to dance to ISU's tune... In a 4:00 FS fast energic music is not ideal to insert delicate artistic touches. I think that's the problem with Origin, too. It's too exhausting to appear light and effortless like H&L or Yuzu's SPs and EX programs. Seimei was somewhere inbetween: powerful, but still light, balanced and controlled. In Origin Yuzu really "works" on the ice, that's not what I'm used from him... and I'm not sure, if recycling can solve that issue. How do you think about it?