I only see Nathan and Shoma messing up and Junhwan and Yuma doing fine. They have better consistency.
I do see chances of the free skate either being disastrous for the last group or turn out really well. Free skate is a different monster. There are lots of skaters who skate clean SPs, but not alot of skaters can skate clean FS. Moreover not alot of skaters can skate a clean FS with an Olympic pressure for a medal and the last group has that. It will be a test of their mental strength on Thursday. I do agree Yuzu's chances of a medal hangs very much on how badly the last group mess up or perform under olympic pressure. And whether or not Yuzu lands 4A and skates clean on top of that..