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23 minutes ago, KatjaThera said:

I'm actually not that pessimistic. I believe that if Yuzu manages to gain all the technical advantages he aims for and polish everything to his standards, I still don't think anyone can touch him. And that's not just blind belief. Yes, Nathan did not bring his full arsenal to Saitama and he gets candy and even higher GOE than Yuzu these days. But what Nathan did not have in Saitama was 4S and 4Lo, IIRC. Both of those aren't really worth that many points. Yuzu didn't have 4Lz and 4F, even leaving aside 4A. And his 4Lo wasn't great and the 4S badly betrayed him both times. And the difference between them was still just 20 points. And we know most of those would have been made up by a clean Otonal. So, a clean possibly underscored Yuzu with a clean and overscored Nathan are about the same level. And that's a Nathan with 4Lz, 4T and 4F and a Yuzu with 4Lo, 4S and 4T. If Yuzu adds 4F and 4Lz and Nathan brings back 4Lo and 4S, assuming they still hold back Yuzu's GOE, they'd probably still be similar-ish. Truth is, they can't lowball Yuzu TOO much, especially if he's clean. So a clean Yuzu should still get at least +3 GOE on any jump. But Yuzu also plans to bring 4A and even if it's not as big BV wise as it used to be, it's still an extra quad. On top of that, Yuzu has clean 3As and he will work on everything else, too. And I also think that, like with the Olympics, if he starts his program with clean jumps, the judges will be more willing to run with him. Politics is all good, but judges are still human and I think they'd enjoy being part of a 'historical' performance. A clean 4A for Yuzu would be a great opening to incredible scores. I think they would give it to him. It's 4A after all.

 

The bigger question, IMO, is how long his body will hold up and whether he'll manage to achieve these ideal levels of technicality and performance before his body gives up. I think Yuzu will only call it quits when he will know that he cannot physically keep up anymore. Until then, he'll keep trying, despite any hardships. I guess it is also possible he might at some point conclude that it's not worth it anymore. But that seems out of character for me, IMO. I think it's far more likely he'll continue until he concludes he physically no longer has the ability to win anymore.

Honestly I think the only way Nathan can get a big BV boost next year is if he can do 5 quads in the FS - and Yuzu (and Brian et al) must be aware of that too and wondering if he can.

 

Anything else Nathan does to his tech is going to be fiddling around for 1 or 2 extra points here and there (which can add up obviously); and (though we don't know if it's true or mind games) Raf has said that he thinks it will be difficult to introduce anything new whilst Nathan is away at Yale.

 

Yuzu has much bigger potential gains - so if he can make some of them and skate clean I think he has a good chance of coming out on top.

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11 minutes ago, madraykin said:

Honestly I think the only way Nathan can get a big BV boost next year is if he can do 5 quads in the FS - and Yuzu (and Brian et al) must be aware of that too and wondering if he can.

 

Anything else Nathan does to his tech is going to be fiddling around for 1 or 2 extra points here and there (which can add up obviously); and (though we don't know if it's true or mind games) Raf has said that he thinks it will be difficult to introduce anything new whilst Nathan is away at Yale.

 

Yuzu has much bigger potential gains - so if he can make some of them and skate clean I think he has a good chance of coming out on top.

Exactly. I'm not that familiar with what Raf has said, but my impression ever since Worlds is that Nathan is very close to maxing out. They've pumped up his PCS to the point that even if he works on artistry, there's not much more he can win there. And he's almost maxed out technically, too. Which, IMO is very stupid, considering how early in career he is. The only things he can do to improve on this is quad-quad combinations or quints, really...

 

Meanwhile, Yuzu can, potentially, get a big BV boost. Of course, it won't be easy to go clean with all the stuff he wants to do, but if anyone can do it, it's him and if he manages it all, it will be beyond glorious.

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How many times have we all felt so miserable and defeated and scared of the r word only for Yuzu to come back with “I’m going to land x y z and win everything”? I’ve stopped worrying about his motivation to continue because he’s obviously mentally indestructible and trying to understand his brain is just a waste of time for us mortals. Everything hinges on that precious ankle but I bet he still believes skaters peak at 30.

 

Anyway, Yuzu has always done something incredible the competition after being beaten by Nathan and this time the kuyashii is 9000 and his 4lz is back and he’s fixed that terrifying axis. :tumblr_inline_n18qrbDQJn1qid2nw:

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Just now, KatjaThera said:

Exactly. I'm not that familiar with what Raf has said, but my impression ever since Worlds is that Nathan is very close to maxing out. They've pumped up his PCS to the point that even if he works on artistry, there's not much more he can win there. And he's almost maxed out technically, too. Which, IMO is very stupid, considering how early in career he is. The only things he can do to improve on this is quad-quad combinations or quints, really...

 

Meanwhile, Yuzu can, potentially, get a big BV boost. Of course, it won't be easy to go clean with all the stuff he wants to do, but if anyone can do it, it's him and if he manages it all, it will be beyond glorious.

Yup, I've been fiddling around with Nathan's short (https://skatingscores.com/bv/ if anyone else wants to play) and I think the only thing he can really do is bring back the 4Lz+3T as his combo and do the 4F as his solo jump - if he does that and keeps the combo in the second half he can get a whole 1.7 points extra BV and I can't see that he can do anything more. (assuming that he's never going to try a +3Lo on the grounds that a) they're very rare in mens and b) he has a history of hip problems).

 

Yuzu on the other hand could get an extra 1.8 points 'just' by changing the 4S to a 4Lz.

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I think I will be more optimistic until I see that Yuzu can land 4 to 5 quads clean again this season. I dont want to think he will land 4flip to 4a just because he says he will challenge them. however, what he did at FaOi really encouraged me to believe he still has the fire. I also am just glad that despite losing the world title last season his spirit was never defeated. Yuzu I wish you healthy and happiness and realize all of your goals even tho that means my hair will fall faster than Brian's

 

re Nathan: oh I dont think his team is stupid, raf is esp strategic from what I can tell. I think he hasnt maxed his scores at all. He can do more number of quads, add an underrotated quint? GOE is contingent upon BV now so as long as his bv is the highest, his goe will be the highest. his pcs hasnt been maxed out. those points add up a lot. Nathan has dropped the number of quads over the seasons but he still scored higher because he is now graded on the same level as yuzu. also means he doesnt need to do as much to win against yuzu anymore (not like what he did in the past was but hopefully you know what i mean). With the way judges score him and how much the system is updated in favor of certain skaters, i wont be surprised if he is already the one to beat this 19/20 season. he hasnt revealed alot about his plan so we wont know what kind of layout he is up to. he's a consistent lander and is known to do enough to win so i wouldnt underestimate his international ceiling scores this season. who knows, maybe we'll see his nats scores by skate america. and if he does 5 or 6 quads now like how he did 17/18 even if he didnt do anything differently, he will put up an unbelievable score. its easier to feel inflation when we're in the season after all

 

and if all of my expectations and fesr turn out to be wrong i will be more than happy, though. 

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19 minutes ago, makebelieveup said:

[...] He can do more number of quads, add an underrotated quint?[...]

Ok, I know everyone keeps talking about quints, but at the moment they are worth 0 points. Best case is it gets called as a quad and you probably get a +REP so it's just not worth it.

 

The time to start talking about adding them to programs is when the ISU actually gives them a value.

 

And if Yuzu can get just one more quad (or get back the lutz) then they're pretty much even on number of quads too (Yes, Nathan has technically landed one more in competition but we haven't seen the loop from him in ages.) 

 

(ETA: Normally I'm a huge pessimist so I don't know where all this optimism is coming from, but I'm just gonna roll with it for now...)

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2 hours ago, KatjaThera said:

I'm actually not that pessimistic. I believe that if Yuzu manages to gain all the technical advantages he aims for and polish everything to his standards, I still don't think anyone can touch him. And that's not just blind belief. Yes, Nathan did not bring his full arsenal to Saitama and he gets candy and even higher GOE than Yuzu these days. But what Nathan did not have in Saitama was 4S and 4Lo, IIRC. Both of those aren't really worth that many points. Yuzu didn't have 4Lz and 4F, even leaving aside 4A. And his 4Lo wasn't great and the 4S badly betrayed him both times. And the difference between them was still just 20 points. And we know most of those would have been made up by a clean Otonal. So, a clean possibly underscored Yuzu with a clean and overscored Nathan are about the same level. And that's a Nathan with 4Lz, 4T and 4F and a Yuzu with 4Lo, 4S and 4T. If Yuzu adds 4F and 4Lz and Nathan brings back 4Lo and 4S, assuming they still hold back Yuzu's GOE, they'd probably still be similar-ish. Truth is, they can't lowball Yuzu TOO much, especially if he's clean. So a clean Yuzu should still get at least +3 GOE on any jump. But Yuzu also plans to bring 4A and even if it's not as big BV wise as it used to be, it's still an extra quad. On top of that, Yuzu has clean 3As and he will work on everything else, too. And I also think that, like with the Olympics, if he starts his program with clean jumps, the judges will be more willing to run with him. Politics is all good, but judges are still human and I think they'd enjoy being part of a 'historical' performance. A clean 4A for Yuzu would be a great opening to incredible scores. I think they would give it to him. It's 4A after all.

 

The bigger question, IMO, is how long his body will hold up and whether he'll manage to achieve these ideal levels of technicality and performance before his body gives up. I think Yuzu will only call it quits when he will know that he cannot physically keep up anymore. Until then, he'll keep trying, despite any hardships. I guess it is also possible he might at some point conclude that it's not worth it anymore. But that seems out of character for me, IMO. I think it's far more likely he'll continue until he concludes he physically no longer has the ability to win anymore.

 

I really gave up on any kind of skating score calculations after Worlds and WTT 2019... [funfact: my auto correction didn't know the abbreviation "WTT" and suggested "WTF" instead lol].

 

Possible mindgames right now:

If I skate two perfectly clean programs and the judges give me 0 GOE and 8.00 PCS everywhere (worst case scenario), I need a BV of ~53 in the SP and ~167 in the FS to win with 95% probability and a combined total of ~340 points. If they capitulate and decide to give me +5's and 10.00's, I could score ~390 with the same performance. *yeeey*

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42 minutes ago, madraykin said:

Ok, I know everyone keeps talking about quints, but at the moment they are worth 0 points. Best case is it gets called as a quad and you probably get a +REP so it's just not worth it.

 

The time to start talking about adding them to programs is when the ISU actually gives them a value.

 

And if Yuzu can get just one more quad (or get back the lutz) then they're pretty much even on number of quads too (Yes, Nathan has technically landed one more in competition but we haven't seen the loop from him in ages.) 

 

(ETA: Normally I'm a huge pessimist so I don't know where all this optimism is coming from, but I'm just gonna roll with it for now...)

haha good mindset

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35 minutes ago, Henni147 said:

 

I really gave up on any kind of skating score calculations after Worlds and WTT 2019... [funfact: my auto correction didn't know the abbreviation "WTT" and suggested "WTF" instead lol].

 

Possible mindgames right now:

If I skate two perfectly clean programs and the judges give me 0 GOE and 8.00 PCS everywhere (worst case scenario), I need a BV of ~53 in the SP and ~167 in the FS to win with 95% probability and a combined total of ~340 points. If they capitulate and decide to give me +5's and 10.00's, I could score ~390 with the same performance. *yeeey*

Oh did u mean 300 instead of 340? 340 seems kinda high for total combination score without GOE

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8 hours ago, KatjaThera said:

So... while regular people train 4A in harness, Yuzu has already upgraded to 5s... :ohmygod: I guess when the ISU proved to him he needed more jumps to beat the 'quad king' he concluded 4Lz, 4F and 4A weren't enough, so he's moving on to the next level... (and no, I'm not taking it too seriously, but hey, quints are just a half a rotation more than 4A and he has said the other quads are easier to rotate than A, hence 4A is difficult, but maybe then 5T would be about as difficult a step from 4T as 4A is from 3A...)

 

Everything else they say makes sense, I guess. Repeating both programs makes sense. He is very comfortable with Otonal, and maybe he could do 4Lo instead of 4S in it, for an upgrade. And Origin was meant for 4A. And deciding after this season if he goes for Beijing or not also makes sense. He'll have a better understanding of where he stands, both compared to the competition and health wise, as well as motivation wise. Personally I expect him to continue another season, because even if he manages to add all quads, I'm not sure he'd also manage to polish them as desired this season. But then it'll be Olympic Season after that. In the same time, I can't see him deciding to go to Beijing without properly preparing for it for at least two seasons. So it makes sense.

 

But we'll see. TSL is TSL after all...

Not that I ever believe a single word from TSL but jeeez you make so much sense it's scary.

8 hours ago, SparkleSalad said:

OT but ever since the 24hr TV announcement, my Twitter feed has been full of photos of people eating white peaches and it’s all because of an elbow. :facepalm:

 

 

 

:smiley-laughing021:....people brains are so fascinating!

5 hours ago, Henni147 said:

 

Now I'm really curious how Otonal and Origin look like without jumps at the moment...   :mischief:

Me too...one day maybe he'll show us(in the next Continue maybe?)

2 hours ago, SparkleSalad said:

See you zen-Yuzu,it's been nice to know you:lol:

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11 minutes ago, mercedes said:

Not that I ever believe a single word from TSL but jeeez you make so much sense it's scary.

:smiley-laughing021:....people brains are so fascinating!

Me too...one day maybe he'll show us(in the next Continue maybe?)

See you zen-Yuzu,it's been nice to know you:lol:

Did zenzu ever happen though? :knc_brian1:

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6 hours ago, SparkleSalad said:

 

In combination.

So, it’s this time of the year we all go crazy speculating and we won’t have media day to bring us back to Earth :10814716:

I wonder how far we’ll get before ACI:hihi:

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3 minutes ago, mercedes said:

I like to think he existed for like...3 secs?:meditationf:

Yuzenru is underrated tbh, it was magical. im just proud i was alive in that 3 seconds to witness it

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