axelsandwich Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 6 minutes ago, Yatagarasu said: It's really a question of what is the smallest loss. Yes, there are Euros. It's RusNats-> Euros->Olys. Euros are in Moscow of all places, in January. I'll give you my honest opinion, as things stand now. If Zhenya wins RusNats, with or without the GPF, she'll reset the situation in her favor. If Alina has won the GPF in the meantime it is going to be much more difficult but not impossible, even if the Fed is eyeing Alina for the OGM. If Zhenya loses RusNats, then that is pretty much that (here disregarding any potential Oly messing up, which is of course always possible by anyone). But it is the RusNats that'll be the breaking point, in one way or another. Will it shift her momentum if she wins Euros even if she loses hypothetically the GPF and RusNats? From a recovery POV, that would be the best comp for her to aim for (albeit close to PC). I agree that RusNats are essential. I just don’t want her to push for GPF if it means potentially hurting herself further in which case she might lose RusNats anyway and it feels like the momentum is always with who wins the ‘last battle’ before PC. In the grand scheme of things from a ‘perception’ POV, there’s still time to recover from GPF, less so w RusNats or Euros. The girl might still aim for all of them and I don’t trust her coaching team to slow her down tbh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joey Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 42 minutes ago, Fay said: The rumours so far are that she injured her foot while she was doing some conditioning exercises - she hit her foot hard against a bench she was to jump over. Had she allowed herself to rest then, it might not have been so bad now... That is always easy to say though She probably thought it wasn't too serious, and I'm not sure I even want to know how many "smaller" things athletes have to go through quite regularly. So maybe it didn't appear as any reason for concern to her at first. But it is worrying at this point that the injury has troubled her for so long and has even gotten worse. Hopefully, hopefully she'll make the right choice for her, whichever that is, and be able to heal completely as soon as possible. If she's not ready by GPF, and that seems scarily likely given it is only 3 weeks, I hope she WDs and focuses on the next competition (likely RN). I mean, maybe she can organize a little GPF viewing party with Yuzu, Javi, Chiddy, Gabby, Mai and all the other potentially missing skaters people would have thought were locks for the final (or at least close to it) before. Or they do an anti-GPF thing, and either skate together in a fun competition without jumps somewhere, or make a video evening, or... eh, something. Seriously, GPF this year will feel so weird... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PapiandPooh422 Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 43 minutes ago, Fay said: The rumours so far are that she injured her foot while she was doing some conditioning exercises - she hit her foot hard against a bench she was to jump over. Had she allowed herself to rest then, it might not have been so bad now... If that's true that... stings I just wish that all of the injured skaters heal well and deliver when it matter the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sombreuil Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 It really is going to be the Hunger Games at Russian nats .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yatagarasu Posted November 21, 2017 Author Share Posted November 21, 2017 6 minutes ago, kaerb said: Will it shift her momentum if she wins Euros even if she loses hypothetically the GPF and RusNats? From a recovery POV, that would be the best comp for her to aim for (albeit close to PC). I agree that RusNats are essential. I cannot say, can she even wrestle that title away in that case? I mean pure math is not on her side if Alina starts hitting mid 70s for PCS considering Alina's TES. She would be over 154 with that, and remember, not counting WTT, that's where Zhenya's FS score is. Game over. I mean personally, I'd say WD and go for being as healthy as possible at RusNats, as that seems the least risky. I actually do think Eteri cares for her but the thing is, we don't know all the info they may have. They're basing their decisions on the situation they see, which we do not. I think Zhenya herself is a quite mature for her age, and hopefully they'll choose this option, where she gives herself time and she goes for the RusNats, hoping to take them. Everything crossed, knock on wood and then by the time Olys come, just skate lights out and may the best lady win, whoever she is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
axelsandwich Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, Yatagarasu said: I cannot say, can she even wrestle that title away in that case? I mean pure math is not on her side if Alina starts hitting mid 70s for PCS considering Alina's TES. She would be over 154 with that, and remember, not counting WTT, that's where Zhenya's FS score is. Game over. I mean personally, I'd say WD and go for being as healthy as possible at RusNats, as that seems the least risky. I actually do think Eteri cares for her but the thing is, we don't know all the info they may have. They're basing their decisions on the situation they see, which we do not. I think Zhenya herself is a quite mature for her age, and hopefully they'll choose this option, where she gives herself time and she goes for the RusNats, hoping to take them. Everything crossed, knock on wood and then by the time Olys come, just skate lights out and may the best lady win, whoever she is. Ahh right, Alina’s TES is no joke and her PCS are rising alarmingly quickly... She does seem to be struggling more with her SP, which could be a factor if we’re talking comp consistency - but we’ll see how she goes with an adjusted layout at GPF. I don’t mean to say Eteri doesn’t care for her but I also think their approach to injury and perhaps threshold for withdrawal may not be the same as eg. TCC. It’ll depend on her condition, we can’t really know anything. Hope they keep their eye on the prize. (Aren’t we also waiting to find out IOC’s decision on Russia competing on Dec 5? Surely not likely they’ll disqualify them right??) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
singcarcom Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 Oh no, poor Zhenya... She sounds like CoC '14 Yuzu. Now I'm hoping that she withdraws. I think her losing a competition will be even more stressful than if Yuzu lost because her winning streak hasn't been broken... Please rest and recover. And IOC, please let Russia participate at PC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kaeryth Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 Wishing Zhenya a quick and good recovery. Her situation is really difficult and I only wish her the best, whatever decision she and her team might end up doing. (Personally, I wish she would withdraw as even if Alina wins GPF there is still RusNats and Euros which are more key competitions than GPF heading to Olys). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yatagarasu Posted November 21, 2017 Author Share Posted November 21, 2017 47 minutes ago, kaerb said: Ahh right, Alina’s TES is no joke and her PCS are rising alarmingly quickly.. (Aren’t we also waiting to find out IOC’s decision on Russia competing on Dec 5? Surely not likely they’ll disqualify them right??) Yes, her TES is the 'trouble' there. I always figured that a clean Zhenya can fight her off with her PCS, because it didn't even occur to me they'd boost Alina so high so quickly. But there we go. We'll see, GPF will help gives us a better idea for sure. (now if Zhenya WDs, Wakaba is in. And if we had had proper PCS for Wakaba, we wouldn't be talking like Alina's GPF is a done deal because Waka can deal with Alina. As it is though...) And yes, but I don't think they'll ban Russia. They'll do another Rio IMO, leave it to individual sport associations, in which case skating should be a non-issue. Knock on wood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuzuangel Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 This is so unfair to Zhenya. Not just her injury, injuries are always unfair, but how much RusFed is pushing the other girls' PCS as if she's expendable, and they can just replace her. Well, I guess to them any skater is expendable if she's not winning. Alina's PCS rise is meteoric, unprecedented...it's totally unfair. While I personally think many skaters' PCS are inflated, Zhenya has spent two entire years working for hers. Two seasons of being undefeated except one competition. More clean competitions than not. And she has been working on and improving on her presentation even though her PCS was rising anyway. It's not fair that because it's Olympic season Alina can get all of that so fast. She hasn't even skated a clean short in a while. I like Alina mostly because her jumps are my favorite of the Russian ladies, but I have a feeling if she wins she will be another Adelina and retire immedidately whereas I don't feel that way about Zhenya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreatLakesGal Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 Someone over at FSU said she was diagnosed with a "crack in the metatarsal bone on the right foot." Don't know if that diagnosis is accurate or not but, if it is, I can't imagine her skating in the GPF. It's possible that could even be a season-ending injury for her. I hate Olympic years. I really, really do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eclair Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 On 8.9.2017 at 2:50 PM, Yatagarasu said: Zhenya's SP layout - all jumps in the 2nd half. FP - 2A//everything else. The jumps/combinations are the same as the previous season. Tomorrow starts at 3PM Moscow time and Sunday at 2PM! Almost there! Actually, I've been thinking about Evgenia pulling out of the GPF last week. If she wins it, she is in the same position for the Olympic prestige wise as now. If she looses it to Alina or Wakaba or Osmond, then that would really put a hit on her Olympic chances. There really is no benefit in competing with an injury there. I also think people are right, that the timing of the announcement is weird. I think it has something to do with Skate America and who will then participate at the GPF. But I have no idea, what exactly it should tell us ... I wish everyone who got injured a fast recovery (Evgenia, Hanyu, Javier, Boyang, etc)! They are greatly missed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xen Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 Cannot be just a bench, unless preexisting injuries existed, it cannot aggrevate it that far. I wish Russian fed would just come out and say based on her past season results, she would have a spot. Really, no one would raise eyebrows at that, and that ensures their biggest oly hopeful actually gets rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuzuangel Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 5 hours ago, Xen said: Cannot be just a bench, unless preexisting injuries existed, it cannot aggrevate it that far. I wish Russian fed would just come out and say based on her past season results, she would have a spot. Really, no one would raise eyebrows at that, and that ensures their biggest oly hopeful actually gets rest. Spot, yes, is pretty much guaranteed but momentum for OGM is important too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
axelsandwich Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 16 minutes ago, yuzuangel said: Spot, yes, is pretty much guaranteed but momentum for OGM is important too. tbh though, it would probably be worse for her momentum to skate poorly and be in danger of losing (or win but not cleanly/decisively and cause more anger about PCS inflation etc.). We saw the effect her non-clean skates already had on public perception in CoR and NHK (before knowing about the injury, granted) - it might shake up Zhenya's image even more because she's built her reputation for 2yrs as being infallible. Better to keep people to their imaginations rather than confirm their worst expectations, is my thinking, and put recovery/health first. But I get why she would also want to skate : / Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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