Yuzuru's chances at the Olympics: second OGM

[KatjaThera]

So, after getting the OK from Hydro and staff, I'm starting this thread to discuss Yuzuru's chances at getting that second OGM he dreams of and that we all want for him. It's been a really difficult season and there are many concerns among us fans, so I think one way to try to survive until the Olympics is to discuss this and to compile a list of Pro and Con arguments for his chances of success. Of course, the aim is to have more pros than cons, but I think it's best to be honest and try to view things realistically (I personally think even so, the pros will outweigh the cons).

 

I'll reserve the first two posts after this, the first for Pro arguments, which I - or maybe someone from the staff, if I'm too slow? - will edit to add new pro arguments as they come, and the second for Con arguments. The point of this is that if people want to look just at the Pro arguments, to be able to do it more easily.

 

I'll add in the first few arguments I can think of, but feel free to discuss them, argue for/against etc. I know there have been some discussions along these lines in the General Thread Chat - which is also where I got the idea for this thread - but since not everyone can follow that closely, please bring your own arguments again here, so anyone interested in this can read them. (Quoting your own posts works, too).

[KatjaThera]

Pro arguments:

• Experience with injuries (getting good results despite being injured; recovering from injuries); Also experience with facing great adversity: the earthquake, the CoC'14 crash etc. and coming out of it stronger. Arguments under spoiler:

Spoiler

2012 Worlds - won the free skate with a sprained ankle that kept him off the ice for four weeks after the competition

 

2013 Worlds - won the free skate (was it?) with ankle pain in one leg and knee pain in the other; ETA: he required 2 and a half months to heal from the knee injury

 

2014 Cup of China - finished second overall, despite cuts on chin and forehead, that needed multiple stitches each, deep muscle pain in one thigh, a sprained ankle and bruised stomach/ribs and 5 falls, out of which two on quads

 

2014 Grand Prix Final - won, despite not having much time to practice and practicing alone, without Brian. Also won despite stomach aches that then made the trip home almost unbearable.

 

2014 Japan Nationals - won, despite an open, bleeding and infected wound in his stomach. Went straight to the hospital and got surgery a couple of days later.

 

2015 Worlds - second - and not by that huge a margin - despite only being able to practice for around a week before the competition, due to multiple complications and spraining an ankle while trying to hurry to recover after his surgery.

 

2015 - NHK Trophy, GPF - world record breaking performances despite the developing lisfranc injury (he won′t admit how bad it was at that point already, but it probably at least hurt).

 

2016 Worlds - won the SP despite the lisfranc injury which was bad by then. He still finished second (and the FS issues were probably more due to accumulated mental problems, including the stress of the injury and having to drop the toeloop, than the injury itself), although by then he feared he wouldn′t be able to skate again. Was off the ice for six weeks after that.

 

2017 Worlds - won the FS (and we can argue the SP issues were unrelated) despite an asthma attack two weeks prior and being unable to practice with music on (maybe in a few years we′ll know just how many days of practice he managed then; we might have another >>>.<<< moment then)

 

2018 ACI - SP World Record despite being off the ice for a week as caution for a potential knee problem. FS issues due to having to simplify his program and not being used to the layout rather than off ice time or knee problems.

 

Ok, for quite a few of those he didn′t really have much in the way of rivals (it was either just Javi, which means second is the worst he could do, or not really anyone in Javi-less competitions), but still!

(...)

(Also, if I got any fact wrong, please let me know. I wrote it all from memory, as I have to go to work and don't have time to double check ^_^; )

• Takes much better care of himself; takes breaks when he feels even the slightest pain; didn't push through to skate despite getting injured in NHK
• Jun Hwan and Gabby's results show TCC skaters have had great success after recovering from multiple injuries
• He's stubborn (@theonecurriedplush) and ambitious
• Has a great grasp of the bigger picture - e.g. he realized the quad revolution was coming even while many others dismissed it

• His opponents don’t have info about his recovery, his training, and his progress while he’s aware of everyone’s  (@ruruzest)

• The support of the fans in the arena will play a role to intimidate opponents psychologically and to boost his confidence (@ruruzest)

• the connection of Yuzu ‘s performance and audience will play a positive impact in judges(@ruruzest)

• he’s been in the Olympic before ( but I don’t know about this because he’s in a different position now).(@ruruzest)

• He’s Yuzuru Hanyu (@ruruzest)

• I have this strong feel, that as much as this means for all of the Olympians, it means more for Yuzu (@theonecurriedplush More here.)

• I also think proving a point to the people who have doubted him means a lot to him (@lilsailor More here.)

• it's his second rodeo, whereas for his (probably) greatest rivals, Nathan and Shoms it's the first one. Of course that doesn't shield him from Javi and Patrick. On the other hand experience hasn't exactly helped Patrick and Yuzu is going to put more pressure on himself than anybody else ( @Moria Polonius More here.)

• He already has Olympic experience so will have a better idea of what to expect going in the competition than younger skaters at the first Olympics, but without the pressure of feeling/knowing it is definitely his last (@CupidsBow More here.)

• Hype and the pressure of outside expectations uh can't really get higher for Yuzu (@CupidsBow More here.)

• A lot of the hype has lifted off Yuzu and has drifted elsewhere. With Nathan and Shoma getting all the attention Yuzu might just get pissed off enough to land clean programs out of spite. (@CupidsBow More here.)

• He has the ability. Looking at competitions he's missed I don't even necessarily think he has the be clean to win, although i know he wants that and that would see him willing in a clear-cut way with a fair margin. (@CupidsBow More here.)

• his experience in the free skate at Sochi. That was when he was under pressure as the leader. It was his to lose, he felt the pressure as the real gold contender instead of a first timer who needed to justify his inclusion by doing as well as he could and podium (@WinForPooh More here.)

• we haven't actually seen a completely clean and really great free skate from the man billed to take the OGM [Nathan] despite his undefeated season. If anything, his 4F UR has become more obvious and his 3A has become wobblier. He cannot beat a clean Yuzu. (@WinForPooh More here.)
• the focus on physical therapy, recovery, ALL OF THAT, instead of the succession of, and crescendo of, competitions, may have been a period of focusing on the day to day. (you see, this is a known meditation practice) This could well have been a time that gives him a wanted groundedness! ( @theonecurriedplush More here.)
• I'm thinking that he will go into the Olympics absolutely pissed that all his plans were derailed by injury. And I'm hoping that anger will override his nerves and cause him to deliver some great performances--just like he did with that Helsinki FS. (  @GreatLakesGal )
• He's Yuzu, he can do it. ( @Lunna )
• With 5 quads - there still will be 4 left if he'll pop one, so more chances to still have high BV even if not completely clean in FS and he doesn't have to yolo anything (=think too much and loose concentration) ( @Lunna )
• Yuzuru likes challenges, he always pressures himself and he might get strenght from fans believing in miracles. ( @LadyLou More here)
• this time he might be more focused on fighting his way out from all his recent setbacks rather than on being perfect, so more a la gpf 2014 and Aci 2017 sp and less a la WTT SP or Boston FS ( @LadyLou More here)
• He has two programs he's comfortable with and he knows very well. He knows he can do well with those programs even when his body isn't in top condition/he missed training( @LadyLou More here)
• Judges might be flabbergasted if he does his come back in style and  they might give him all the goe and pcs with a big "thank you for being back". (We can dream, right?) ( @LadyLou More here)
• His competitors looked much better earlier in the season and then they all kinda deflated. ( @LadyLou More here)
• Brian and Kikuchi looked really happy after his fs [at COR], which makes me think till then it was still according to the plan ( @LadyLou More here)
• He has JSF backing him up 100% at the moment, it seems, protecting his privacy, offering only enough information to let people know he's still around and still dangerous. Saying he can do both team events if he wants to is also a big plus.
• Training at TCC is a big plus, with its sheltered environment (also the great number of coaches and the good performances of his rink mates help him get a good feeling)
• Peaking: this year, once he's healthy, he can just train hard and go for the main event...... they say he reaches peak quickly, this is one time where (again, if healthy) that will be necessary ( @liv More here)
• He will feel like he's coming from behind for each program. We know he fights best when he's behind... this time, no matter if he has a 100 point lead in the short program, he's going to have to battle hard in the long program because he knows it'll be a challenge. So basically, his back will be to the wall every step of the way... which is good for him. ( @liv More here)
• Javi winning the Europeans. Aside from them being teammates, which means a good atmosphere at TCC, Yuzu was very fired up after Javi won Euros for the first time, feeling challenged by it. Sadly, it didn't pay off in 2013 due to his injury then, but I can imagine he might feel the same now.

 

[KatjaThera]

Con arguments:

• Is prone to injuries
• Is very stubborn
• Old habits - over training, pushing too hard when not in top shape - are hard to break (NHK being the perfect example)
• There's no way of knowing where he's at competitively rn. Practices are one thing, competitions are another. (@CupidsBow More here.)
• preferential scoring might not exactly be on yuzu's side (@CupidsBow More here.)
• Yuzu might want it too much. like how he wanted a clean LGC at WTT too much. Yuzu can overthink himself into a car crash. (@CupidsBow More here.)
• His mistakes can be very costly in terms of points. While Nathan and Shoma can land not a very good jumps, even UR ones, Yuzu tends to pop if a take off/timing went wrong. Also all his combos are in the second half so he almost doesn't have a room to catch up if smth. goes wrong there. ( @Lunna)
• No competitions prior to Oly to test his mentality in competition environment  ( @LadyLou More here.)

• Possibly psychological issues on jumps (popping in fear of injury) ( @LadyLou More here.)

• Possibly new layout and being forced to water-down, which he hates ( @LadyLou More here.)

• Also, imo deep down we're all expecting a miracle and those expectations might be bad pressure for Yuzuru. He doesn't owe us a miracle... ( @LadyLou More here.)

• Nathan is "undefeated" and has his BV and fed behind him. Shoma is going back to a layout he can hit more consistently and he might win 4CC with a bang. Javi might do the same at Euros  (or Mika, and if that happens, Russia could legit have a contender, too, despite the lower bv than Shoma and Nathan) ( @LadyLou More here.)

[theonecurriedplush]

5 minutes ago, KatjaThera said:

Pro arguments:

• Experience with injuries (getting good results despite being injured; recovering from injuries)

 

THIS, could be his biggest "pro" I believe; at this point I have no idea how he's skating, but this experience should really sustain him. (besides his skating skills. I mean I think for all the nathan talk, his jumps, they're nothing to Yuzu's jumps perfection) but his ability aside, psychologically, (because we don't know how much he's recovered) this experience will give him the winning boost.

[KatjaThera]

2 minutes ago, theonecurriedplush said:

THIS, could be his biggest "pro" I believe; at this point I have no idea how he's skating, but this experience should really sustain him. (besides his skating skills. I mean I think for all the nathan talk, his jumps, they're nothing to Yuzu's jumps perfection) but his ability aside, psychologically, (because we don't know how much he's recovered) this experience will give him the winning boost.

I agree re: Nathan, too. IMO, nobody has the same quality jumps as Yuzu does.

 

So I'd argue adding something like: Generally, higher GOE and PCS than his rivals, especially when clean. as a pro. And maybe Lower BV and varying GOE/PCS when not squeaky clean, compared to rivals. as a con. But I think that should maybe get discussed a bit first (though we're entering skating chat territory).

[theonecurriedplush]

21 minutes ago, KatjaThera said:

Con arguments:

• Is prone to injuries
• Is very stubborn
• Old habits - over training, pushing too hard when not in top shape - are hard to break (NHK being the perfect example)

I agree with you last pro list (ugh, i don't know how to include that here) but I just want to mention, for me, his stubbornness has ALSO been a strength! I really believe it makes him the great skater he is.

[KatjaThera]

5 minutes ago, theonecurriedplush said:

I agree with you last pro list (ugh, i don't know how to include that here) but I just want to mention, for me, his stubbornness has ALSO been a strength! I really believe it makes him the great skater he is.

Good point. I was just thinking of it just in the negative sense. Ah, if we go on personality traits, I might end up adding a hundred pros lol

[ruruzest]

I want to add to the pro

 His opponents don’t have info about his recovery, his training, and his progress while he’s aware of everyone’s  

 The support of the fans in the arena will play a role to intimidate opponents psychologically and to boost his confidence 

 the connection of Yuzu ‘s performance and audience will play a positive impact in judges

 he’s been in the Olympic before ( but I don’t know about this because he’s in a different position now).

 He’s Yuzuru Hanyu 

@theonecurriedplush welcome to the Planet ! Please post often !!!!

Thank you @KatjaThera for opening this thread ! 

[theonecurriedplush]

As a pro, I wanted to add something, I hope it makes sense.

I have this strong feel, that as much as this means for all of the Olympians, it means more for Yuzu.

The 2nd in a row OGM.

Perhaps I don't know how he feels, yet it seems to me, a month before, that he would still be on fire for that and would do anything for it.

And this is something valuable to the person he is. To not be philosophically hedging his bets so to speak, but aiming to not only win, but

win atrociously big.

I also say this to boost the spirit of his fans, because I don't want everyone to be resigned or asking him to aim for less, now, a month before. And I want him

to feel some of that enthusiasm from his fans. Because watching him, I think he's an athlete that can't even practice well without that fire.

So, regardless his physical condition, I think the 2nd OGM is still INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT for him, and THAT is a powerful powerful thing!!!

[lilsailor]

6 minutes ago, theonecurriedplush said:

As a pro, I wanted to add something, I hope it makes sense.

I have this strong feel, that as much as this means for all of the Olympians, it means more for Yuzu.

The 2nd in a row OGM.

Perhaps I don't know how he feels, yet it seems to me, a month before, that he would still be on fire for that and would do anything for it.

And this is something valuable to the person he is. To not be philosophically hedging his bets so to speak, but aiming to not only win, but

win atrociously big.

I also say this to boost the spirit of his fans, because I don't want everyone to be resigned or asking him to aim for less, now, a month before. And I want him

to feel some of that enthusiasm from his fans. Because watching him, I think he's an athlete that can't even practice well without that fire.

So, regardless his physical condition, I think the 2nd OGM is still INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT for him, and THAT is a powerful powerful thing!!!

I also think proving a point to the people who have doubted him means a lot to him, there’s a lot of people that have said he’s too old, or he’s a has been or that the newer skaters like Nathan/Vincent are better etc. and I think showing people he’s still at the top of his game / the sport will mean a lot 

[Moria Polonius]

Pro: it's his second rodeo, whereas for his (probably) greatest rivals, Nathan and Shoms it's the first one. Of course that doesn't shield him from Javi and Patrick. On the other hand experience hasn't exactly helped Patrick and Yuzu is going to put more pressure on himself than anybody else. But it's not like Nathan with the American hype behind him and Shoma won't put pressure on themselves, with Hanyu's status unknown there's a possibility of winning the whole shebang in their minds. (Just watch Boyang being the only chill one up there, lol.) I think Yuzuru's focus will be similar to that of Helsinki FS - he will be catching up but not just for a disappointing SP but for the entire season he's missed. I believe he will be in the zone.

 

(Well, most of my pro reasoning could eveasily argued as a con, I'm so bad at this.)

[CupidsBow]

Here are my thoughts:

 

Pros:

- He already has Olympic experience so will have a better idea of what to expect going in the competition than younger skaters at the first Olympics, but without the pressure of feeling/knowing it is definitely his last. He's still young enough that a third Olympics is a possibility if he chooses to try for it. So I guess in this respect a 2nd Olympics is a pretty nice middle ground.
 

- Hype and the pressure of outside expectations uh can't really get higher for Yuzu. It won't change. Even a week before Olympics the pressure of outside expectations is going to be the same he's been dealing with since at least 2015. His internally-generated pressure is also not likely to really change much imo. In comparison to Nathan who is suddenly getting a lot of fed hype Yuzu deals with that amount of pressure all the time. He's the most equipped to deal with Olympic pressure because he pm expects himself to be perfect and carries the expectation to win in every competition.His motivation and pressures don't really ever change.

 

- that said a lot of the hype has lifted off Yuzu and has drifted elsewhere. With Nathan and Shoma getting all the attention Yuzu might just get pissed off enough to land clean programs out of spite. He's not exactly fond of people forgetting that he's there and he's the no.1. remember his petulant 3a for attention when the Barcelona crowd was paying more attention to javi? yeah like that. but entire programs. 

 

- He has the ability. Looking at competitions he's missed I don't even necessarily think he has the be clean to win, although i know he wants that and that would see him willing in a clear-cut way with a fair margin. Nathan's constant messing with his layout means his programs are unsettled and his performance quality/transitions have been going downhill since the start of the season which should be reflected in his pc but isnt...no one has been without issues some of them repetitive issues...If those issues come out at Pyeongchang then really Yuzuru should be able to fight for his place.

 

Cons:

- There's no way of knowing where he's at competitively rn. Practices are one thing, competitions are another. If he is doing consistent clean full run-throughs of his programs in practice, its a good sign but practice environments are not competition environments. And its unlikely that regular clean run-throughs are happening after weeks off ice from injury. I'm sure he can be back in condition for the Olympics but it's impossible to try to guess what that means. Are we back to his typical early-season skating where he's still a bit meh? Has he been storing up energy from NHK and is going to unleash it at Pyeongchang? Who knows. That said pretty much everyone's conditions going in to Olys is a mystery and predicting how they will perform is pointless because anyone can bomb at any time.

 

- preferential scoring might not exactly be on yuzu's side. GOE and PCS will be positively thrown at Nathan because he's 'undefeated' so far this season, Shoma will get some treats and Javi will likely get some fluffing if he skates near enough clean. But 4 months out of competition might see judges hesitant to shoot their load at Yuzu scores wise. I predict another Helsinki fs in terms of judges getting shy about dishing out +3 goe and 10s in pcs to Yuzuru even if he's clean and gives the performance of his life. VS Nathan who can get one or two judges giving his 10s and 9.75s  in IN PE and CO (lol) even with a fall and Shoma will get points for his good upper-body movement and >: ( face but not have the emptiness of his program free taken into account. 

 

- Yuzu might want it too much. like how he wanted a clean LGC at WTT too much. Yuzu can overthink himself into a car crash. Being disheartened and anxious because of his injury could lead him there. That said....he'd maybe bomb one program and kill the other. I think it's laughable that anyone thinks he coukd fall off the podium. 

[WinForPooh]

About the Olympic experience, I'd like to add, specifically, his experience in the free skate at Sochi. That was when he was under pressure as the leader. It was his to lose, he felt the pressure as the real gold contender instead of a first timer who needed to justify his inclusion by doing as well as he could and podium. He didn't do his best under that pressure. He would've been going into PC with an amplified version of that kind of pressure, but being out of the public eye and Nathan being hailed as the favourite now means he has just a little bit less of that pressure now - as if he suddenly has something to prove again. I think that free skate has been burning in his mind as the thing he could not overcome and the thing he must overcome now. That's kuyashii to fuel a couple of first world countries.

 

That is a pro in my book.

 

Also, about Nathan: Look, I know it's been a difficult season for everybody but there have been soooo many excuses for every time he faltered, from sickness to boots to his haircut. I'm sure he has dealt with some stuff, like all skaters have, like Yuzu would have multiple times without a soul knowing. Some of that is PR covering for him feeling the pressure. I think he might do reasonably well under pressure at PC and skate well, but flawless? No excuses will matter then. That is not technically about Yuzu, but we haven't actually seen a completely clean and really great free skate from the man billed to take the OGM despite his undefeated season. If anything, his 4F UR has become more obvious and his 3A has become wobblier. He cannot beat a clean Yuzu.

 

The only real question is, can Yuzu go as close to clean as possible when it counts? If he can, then nothing else will matter. If he lands two quads and a 3A in his short, and his 4/5 quads and two 3As in the free without bombing a combo, there is nobody who can beat him.

[KatjaThera]

I updated the Pro and Con posts. I mentioned everyone for credit, as I think that's cleaner than quoting, but for longer posts, I kind of summer it up to the most important lines and linked to the rest of the posts, because it's a shame not to read the whole thing.

 

Really great arguments all around!

 

7 hours ago, CupidsBow said:

- Yuzu might want it too much. like how he wanted a clean LGC at WTT too much. Yuzu can overthink himself into a car crash. Being disheartened and anxious because of his injury could lead him there. That said....he'd maybe bomb one program and kill the other. I think it's laughable that anyone thinks he coukd fall off the podium. 

 

This has always been one of my fears, because the more you tell yourself not to think of something the more you actually think of it. So you can end up overthinking about overthinking. I really, really hope Yuzu has been working on the mental aspect during his off-ice time.

 

That said, I was surprised by how, in some ways, he seems much more zen this season. Like, I wouldn't have imagined he'd be genuinely satisfied and happy with Rostelecom, but he was able to recognize that landing the Lutz was great enough. He seems somehow more... mellow. And mature. While still strong and ambitious. And, of course, it's really hard to judge, since our information is beyond limited, but for some reason, I have the feeling he's actually in a pretty good place mentally, especially compared to how he could have been.

[CupidsBow]

5 minutes ago, KatjaThera said:

I updated the Pro and Con posts. I mentioned everyone for credit, as I think that's cleaner than quoting, but for longer posts, I kind of summer it up to the most important lines and linked to the rest of the posts, because it's a shame not to read the whole thing.

 

Really great arguments all around!

 

 

This has always been one of my fears, because the more you tell yourself not to think of something the more you actually think of it. So you can end up overthinking about overthinking. I really, really hope Yuzu has been working on the mental aspect during his off-ice time.

 

That said, I was surprised by how, in some ways, he seems much more zen this season. Like, I wouldn't have imagined he'd be genuinely satisfied and happy with Rostelecom, but he was able to recognize that landing the Lutz was great enough. He seems somehow more... mellow. And mature. While still strong and ambitious. And, of course, it's really hard to judge, since our information is beyond limited, but for some reason, I have the feeling he's actually in a pretty good place mentally, especially compared to how he could have been.

 

i think his team will have really worked on it but i do wonder if worlds really helped? last season he was chasing the ghost of nhk and gpf '15 and struggling to reach it. at least he could feel satisfied after worlds that it wasn't a fluke and even when increasing his difficulty that kind of high was still well within his capabilities.  pre-COR he talked about wanting to raise his average and he achieved it at COR; it wasn't perfect and he got silver but it was the best first gp of the season hes had in a while. i trust his team and he has really really matured a lot recently so hopefully he's mindset will remain goal-orientated without panicking or hyper-focusing.