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I have a question How likely do you think it is that Hanyu will win the Olympics or even be considered a favorite for gold now. I mean with his injury and being off the ice for months it's not looking good I'm not expecting him to podium to be truthfully honest. And I'm saying this as his biggest fan.

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38 minutes ago, Amura365 said:

I have a question How likely do you think it is that Hanyu will win the Olympics or even be considered a favorite for gold now. I mean with his injury and being off the ice for months it's not looking good I'm not expecting him to podium to be truthfully honest. And I'm saying this as his biggest fan.

 

Not even podium? You are underestimating Yuzuru. His health is fine, it's just a question of how much time he has from that point to the actual Games, and how much has the lack of competition ice affected him. Considering all we know so far, and this is not new information that suddenly appeared now as some sort of there there pat pat by some, but this is old and has always actually been a problem for him - he peaks quickly. Nobu's recent words add to that but they go hand in hand. Not sure how quickly he recovers stamina but really, the lack of competition ice is likely to be his one issue. With even 4 quads in the free, no Lz and the ACI short, he still has more than enough of an advantage if he is clean. He's simply much better overall. Fernandez isn't sticking to 3 quads for no reason; they know that if he can clean his chances are quite high. 

 

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About the documentary I'm not going to watch now but I'll catch up later because I've reached my saturation point and I just want the Games to begin. I joke about the whole of it's so close and alcohol (wait, no, no, I'm serious about the alcohol) but I do actually wish for this time to speed past as quickly as possible so that we can just get on with it. The waiting is driving me nuts. It's always the worst when it's so close and time drags for me, so I'm trying to watch unrelated things and hopefully it'll just tick tock by.

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Wait, wasn't the new title of the NYT article about stumbling on the road to perfection? This is much kinder :happy: ( tho the first one was the absolute best)

and I'm still bitter about that "good luck totems can carry a skater only so far" :smiley-angry031: and "his fixation with difficult jumps", as if he was doing something that he shouldn't or can't do, just 'cause he's a stubborn boy :smiley-angry031::smiley-angry031: but gotta be glad they cared to publish the article and some parts are enjoyable, so ok

 

RE: Yuzu's chance of podium 

to me,  much depends on how fast he's recovering his quads  (and how many) and how many runthroughs he can have with whichever layout he chooses. But tbh, with how volatile men's skating can be I wouldn't rule out of podium any of those who can potentially score over 300, just like I wouldn't bet any money on who has more chances of getting gold, tho maybe I'de place Nathan higher right now because his BV will likely cushion him even with mistakes and he won't lack goe and pcs, if the recent comps are an indication. So, imo he has more chances not because he is more consistent or is the best quality-wise or because he has better nerves, but only because he can afford to do more mistakes (due to inconsistency, nerves or whatever) and still get huge scores, while others have less room for mistakes.

Btw, it isn't even sure that we will see people score 300 at Olys :P Yes, it would mean everyone is bombing quite hard but the Sochi fs must have felt like that...and in gpf they all splatted and got scores way lower than 300 with all those fancy Lz and F... so we can play statistics how much we want but until we don't see how at least the pratices go for everyone I wouldn't despair, and certainly I wouldn't say Yuzu isn't even a podium contender unless we see that he's still physically unwell. And even after practices you can only guess about what will happen on the day. Gosh, even the 6 minutes warm-up can be totally misleading.

What we do know is that Nathan might hold pressure a bit better than others and judges might gift him even more pcs and goe than we have already seen. We know Shoma can score well and is loved by judges too, and if he wins 4cc with good scores he can have back full-force the hype he got at the beginning of the season. We know Boyang can go clean when it matters the most and Kolyada has the potential to break the 300 if cleanish and is currently a wild card. His rep could also get a boost if he defeats Javi at Euros. Then we have Javi, who has been struggling with his fs till now but still can easily break the 300 even with mistakes (and if he defends his title  with good scores will re-establish himself internationally as serious contender for gold too). Patrick is probably going to have the lower bv but still can podium (and if others splat...) And we have Yuzuru who has potential for both magnificent skates and....not so magnificent ones even when his body is ok and he is well trained. Right now with his injury and all he is the wildest of the wild cards. He's never got Evgenia-type consistency, but it's the same for all the other men and for many ladies too, and for pairs, and lately even in ID seasoned teams made stupid mistakes under pressure and lost titles that were theirs to lose. 

We don't even know Yuzu's layout, which could give us some indication of how much clean he has to skate against the others. 

So currently you can't rule out anyone from the podium and certainly not Yuzu, despite the injury, until we'll see his actual shape and his layout. Even then, what will happen might be what people deemed impossible (because thinking that someone has no chances doesn't mean that, in reality, that someone really has no chances)

wow usually I am the pessimist and gloomy type, I suspect I would be more pessimist and gloomy had Yuzuru gone into the Olys as the heavy favourite, like I felt gloomy and pessimist about the SP in Cor :laughing: and before NHK too:slinkaway:

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 I am prepared for everything in Yuzuru's case. He could be brilliant, or not so brilliant and either outcome would not be a surprise right now. If his ankle is healed and training is progressing according to the plan they've devised, then I actually think he will probably do better now than if he'd gone to the Olympics without any issues whatsoever. I will never rule Yuzu out of any competition and this situation is just another wall he has to climb over and we know he loves to climb over walls put in his way.

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2 hours ago, Amura365 said:

I have a question How likely do you think it is that Hanyu will win the Olympics or even be considered a favorite for gold now. I mean with his injury and being off the ice for months it's not looking good I'm not expecting him to podium to be truthfully honest. And I'm saying this as his biggest fan.

depends completely on how he feels mentally // how he reacts to not being considered a contender by many & how everyone else do.. a lot of his rivals have never competed at the Olympics so olympic nerve might come into play whereas yuzuru has experience // Nathan bombed worlds and whilst part of this illness down to his boot programs etc, I’m willing to bet a lot of it was also pressure / nerves, now that he’s thebfavourite, I’m curious as to how he’ll compete 

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2 hours ago, Amura365 said:

I have a question How likely do you think it is that Hanyu will win the Olympics or even be considered a favorite for gold now. I mean with his injury and being off the ice for months it's not looking good I'm not expecting him to podium to be truthfully honest. And I'm saying this as his biggest fan.

Umm, lemme clear this up-you're ruling Yuzuru-I-got-a-split-chin-and-head-and-finished-second-and-first-with-open-wound-in-a-stomach-oh-and-third-on-an-ankle-busted-the-day-before-competition Hanyu out of medalling chances because of an ankle injury he sustained three months before the competition? I mean, yes, he's not a teen anymore, but realistically-as in, Hanyustically -speaking, unless there is another earthquake *knocks on all woods in the room* during or just days before the competition, I will not rule Yuzu out of the top 3. Regardless of nerves, the not-favorite status, literally anything. Sorry if I sound sharp, but I just feel like during that he's-not-consistent! drama, where everybody forgot that since RJ1 season, he's been outside the podium grand total 2 times, when he competed, and outside of top4 grand total of zero times, pressure or no pressure and injury or not. (which equals to literally seven[!!!]seasons, each +/-5 comps, which equals 7*5-2=33medals in the span of his Senior career, +1 for the first 4CC silver makes it +/-34-let these numbers calm your nerves)

In Hanyu we shall trust, is that how it goes?

 

Also, declaring yoursef his biggest fan here...granted, half the population withered, but that's still risky title nonetheless, unless you're sharing :P

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2 hours ago, Amura365 said:

I have a question How likely do you think it is that Hanyu will win the Olympics or even be considered a favorite for gold now. I mean with his injury and being off the ice for months it's not looking good I'm not expecting him to podium to be truthfully honest. And I'm saying this as his biggest fan.

 

I would not rule him out of anything - including and most importantly the Gold medal.

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