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Grand Prix assignments and how they work


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45 minutes ago, wingman said:

Hmm... I would guess that Yuzu wants a vs Nathan at the GPF, but not necessarily earlier. 

I still think it's a given that he will attend NHK. He's been doing NHK for every single year after Sochi.

For the other comp, I'd guess SkC or 4CC, simply because he hasn't got a gold there. I am 100% that at the bottom of his heart he wants one. (Didn't he say in one interview that he put the SkC silvers next to his bed?)

Between SkC and 4CC... SkC is a/ closer to home and b/ happens before NHK, so it's a good place to try out programs. 

So in short, Yuzu = SkC + NHK. 

 

Long train of thought ahead...

 

I think that it's likely he won't do NHK and SkC this year, as he didn't do them last year, and this year he's not even seeded.

 

According to this post on GS, Nathan is going to IdF. So if Nathan goes to IdF, and Yuzu does SkC + NHK,  it puts Shoma in a hard spot because Kolyada will go to Rostelecom, and that leaves Shoma to be doing Cup of China and NHK OR Skate Canada and Cup of China, of which both options are back to back events.

 

I doubt as the World Silver medalist he would be forced to do that nor would JSF force him to. Shoma could do SkC + NHK which means he'll meet Yuzu at both events. It's not exactly optimal. This means that either the insider info posted on GS is wrong, or Yuzu doesn't do SkC + NHK.

 

It's dumb for JSF to assign Yuzu and Shoma to the same GP, but if they must they will assign them both to NHK where they can control the scoring a little, and also because $$. BUT if Yuzu does NHK, would NHK rather have Nathan or Shoma? I think they'd much prefer Shoma AND Yuzu rather than Yuzu+Nathan. Because obviously they'd rather have Kolyada vs. Yuzu, but NHK and Rostelecom Cup are back to back, so Kolyada won't do NHK. Thus I think Shoma will definitely be at NHK. That leaves Skate Canada to be Shoma's other GP.

 

So pulling out my spreadsheet (lol), I think it'll likely be the first case:

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lilD9uoH8maok7JxxIq7zt8R9amV76zP4M3OtOaHutA/edit#gid=0

 

In other words, Nathan: Skate America, IdF; Shoma: Skate Canada, NHK; Kolyada: Cup of China, Rostelecom Cup with Yuzu doing IdF + NHK or Cup of China (a fine choice strategically but unlikely because of Yuzu's history with CoC, and it doesn't really make sense with travel.)

 

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I dont rule out COC + NHK option for Shoma. Its back to back event, but both are in Asia so less traveling time and jet lag. Javi used to do back to back GP in 2016 and he was world champ at that time. I think SA and IDF for Nathan is fix ( as he state like its the only option to do both GP without missing classes) Kolyada might do SC + COR. As for Yuzuru, SC is more likely, that would leave one of NHK/COR/IDF left. At best  Yuzuru and Shoma might meet at one GP, not both. Its not only reduce their chance of GPF (you'll never know what happen, case in point : Javi last season and Ashley in 2016-17), but  less gold medal for JSF. I think JSF will try their best to avoid Yuzuru and Shoma before GPF.

Give how Yuzuru know his pattern very well, I guess he would do IDF as he often won the last GP. I dont think he would choose SA and COC. 

 

Prediction :

Nathan : SA + IDF

Shoma : COC + NHK

Kolyada : SC + COR 

Yuzuru : SC + IDF

Boyang : COC + COR

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2 hours ago, Katt said:

 

Prediction :

Nathan : SA + IDF

Shoma : COC + NHK

Kolyada : SC + COR 

Yuzuru : SC + IDF

Boyang : COC + COR

 

SC+IdF or even NHK+IdF for Yuzu might happen given Didier was boasting he'd have Yuzuru in France, apparently. 

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Genuine question 1: Why does it matter what the allotments are, and how are we predicting them?

 

Genuine question 2: If Chen says that he can do only those two so he doesn't miss classes, what are the chances his career survives if he keeps Yale up?

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6 hours ago, hoodie axel said:

 

Genuine question 2: If Chen says that he can do only those two so he doesn't miss classes, what are the chances his career survives if he keeps Yale up?

He said that he'll reconsider some things if his skating and classes clash, but it's not clear what he's going to do about it, and it seems that since PC, he's starting to eye Beijing more seriously. 

 

My guesses for Yuzu and Shoma are:

Shoma: CoC+NHK

Yuzu: SC+RoC

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 5/19/2018 at 5:17 PM, hoodie axel said:

Genuine question 1: Why does it matter what the allotments are, and how are we predicting them?

 

Why does it matter

1/ We may want to buy pre-emptive tickets as we can do them now (eg: SkC/ RoC / -- anything but NHK, that's probably a bloodbath)

2/ The glory of "See?! I told you so!"

3/ To raise our post count

4/ Exercise our freedom of speech on the Internet

 

How we predict: extrapolate from past data, attempt to go into Feds and the Overlord's minds, tea leaf reading, mushroom, you-name-it.

 

For me it's definitely 1. I really want to see Yuzu live at a competition (ice shows just won't do). And I can't afford to travel more than once per season, realistically speaking. :crybaby:

 

 

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On 5/19/2018 at 3:17 PM, hoodie axel said:

Genuine question 1: Why does it matter what the allotments are, and how are we predicting them?

 

Travel plans :D For example, I bought Skate Canada tickets even though I personally think the probability is lower than IdF. But eh. And I know I won't be able to make NHK but I could do IdF if I plan ahead of time with regards to vacations and work and stuff.

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1 hour ago, yuzuangel said:

Yeah...me too.

I think Yuzu will do NHK+IDF my prediction or SC+NHK...

 

I'm leaning towards (and hoping for) NHK+IdF as well! NHK is definitely going to invite him and France wants him- not sure if Skate Canada would invite Yuzu. 

 

Only 2-3 more weeks till GP assignments are likely to come out!  :embSwan:

 

 

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4 hours ago, yuzuangel said:

Yeah...me too.

I think Yuzu will do NHK+IDF my prediction or SC+NHK...

 

Yuzu would be going against Shoma at NHK and Nathan at IDF. Gah, the problems of not being top seed.

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51 minutes ago, kaeryth said:

With Kaenada/Chanada/V&M/D&R out I think Skate Canada might want to have Yuzu there. :tumblr_inline_mqt4grU8ua1qz4rgp:

It'll be Didier vs Caron in the negotiating table. hehehehe

 

Fair point! Totally forgot all the Canadian dominators in every discipline have either retired or won't be there. I would think SC has more sway than the French federation, but Didier is dodgy af so it could go either way.

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