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7 hours ago, sweetwater said:

 

 

Not sure why this article is circulating now, but it is an old one reporting on JSF's decision to not sending their athletes to JGP events and some CS events scheduled in September and October, published on Monday this week. They haven't announced anything about senior GP yet. (I am personally not so hopeful about GP this year, though)

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3ymDNiV.jpg

 

thank you @sweetwater for clarifying <3

 

Though, looking at how things are going in the USA, I woulnd't be surprised if GP just didn't happen. Or if at least it won't have the usual format. I wonder when USFSA will accept that they cannot possibly hold an international comp in 3 months, no matter how good things might be in Las Vegas...(are they? I've mostly heard about neighboring California pedalling back on reopenings, but checking Nevada it doesn't seem they ever reached a plateau, either)

:offtopic2:

Spoiler

The discourse about "increase of tests"-->"that's why we have more positive", while partially true, reminds me of the same narrative by those who wanted at all cost make it look as if Lombardy (epicenter of covid in Italy) was the first in the class among all 20 regions.

 

Back in May (source it's in italian but I guess the graphs are easy to understand even without google tranlaste), when many regions were counting new daily cases in dozens(and some even below that), Lombardy still counted them in several hundreths. "But, look, we're testing more than any other region!" some politician boasted proudly.

It was true.

 

But looking at new daily positive test/daily tests, most of the other regions had very low percentages while Lombardy still had, on average, the highest percentage.

It meant that, while Lombardia did more test in absolute terms, other regions kept searching A LOT more for new positive cases. The one region that ought to actively search for the many, many "submerged" cases was still lagging behind.

Moreover, a big percentage of their tests were not the "We're searching for new cases" type of tests but "We wanted to know if this person, who was positive, is finally virus-free and can leave their home", so their numbers weren't as reassuring as they could look at first (since they had many more positive people, they also run more test to confirm negativization, compared to regions that never had that many cases to begin with)

 

back to the present: it might look that USA is being like Lombardia in their narratives, but in fact it's worse.

In Lombardia, at some point, new daily cases DID stabilize and then DID drop despite number of new tests still increasing (second graph in the source above)

Right now, they DO manage to keep their daily positive tests/total test below 1%. It means they are searching and finding many of those milder and asymphtomatic cases that before went undetected, that they are testing all contacts of a positive case (in March, most of the times they couldn't afford to test people who didn't require hospitalization) and that they probably screen their healthcare workers properly, too.

The curve of total cases now is in a clear plateau (crossing everything that we stick to that plateau), despite the fact than now asymptomatic cases are much more likely to get "caught" on the radar than in all the past months

In USA all of this is yet to come

 

 

an aside, I also wish USA stopped conflating together all the results from tests with very different specificity and sensitivity. Sure, they aren't the only Country doing this, far from it, and sure, they themselves do have the disaggregated data for their own analyses, but still...

 

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JOIN US!!!! And don't forget to comment in the chat to participate in the giveaways!! :67638860:

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, LadyLou said:

thank you @sweetwater for clarifying <3

 

Though, looking at how things are going in the USA, I woulnd't be surprised if GP just didn't happen. Or if at least it won't have the usual format. I wonder when USFSA will accept that they cannot possibly hold an international comp in 3 months, no matter how good things might be in Las Vegas...(are they? I've mostly heard about neighboring California pedalling back on reopenings, but checking Nevada it doesn't seem they ever reached a plateau, either)

:offtopic2:

  Hide contents

The discourse about "increase of tests"-->"that's why we have more positive", while partially true, reminds me of the same narrative by those who wanted at all cost make it look as if Lombardy (epicenter of covid in Italy) was the first in the class among all 20 regions.

 

Back in May (source it's in italian but I guess the graphs are easy to understand even without google tranlaste), when many regions were counting new daily cases in dozens(and some even below that), Lombardy still counted them in several hundreths. "But, look, we're testing more than any other region!" some politician boasted proudly.

It was true.

 

But looking at new daily positive test/daily tests, most of the other regions had very low percentages while Lombardy still had, on average, the highest percentage.

It meant that, while Lombardia did more test in absolute terms, other regions kept searching A LOT more for new positive cases. The one region that ought to actively search for the many, many "submerged" cases was still lagging behind.

Moreover, a big percentage of their tests were not the "We're searching for new cases" type of tests but "We wanted to know if this person, who was positive, is finally virus-free and can leave their home", so their numbers weren't as reassuring as they could look at first (since they had many more positive people, they also run more test to confirm negativization, compared to regions that never had that many cases to begin with)

 

back to the present: it might look that USA is being like Lombardia in their narratives, but in fact it's worse.

In Lombardia, at some point, new daily cases DID stabilize and then DID drop despite number of new tests still increasing (second graph in the source above)

Right now, they DO manage to keep their daily positive tests/total test below 1%. It means they are searching and finding many of those milder and asymphtomatic cases that before went undetected, that they are testing all contacts of a positive case (in March, most of the times they couldn't afford to test people who didn't require hospitalization) and that they probably screen their healthcare workers properly, too.

The curve of total cases now is in a clear plateau (crossing everything that we stick to that plateau), despite the fact than now asymptomatic cases are much more likely to get "caught" on the radar than in all the past months

In USA all of this is yet to come

 

 

an aside, I also wish USA stopped conflating together all the results from tests with very different specificity and sensitivity. Sure, they aren't the only Country doing this, far from it, and sure, they themselves do have the disaggregated data for their own analyses, but still...

 

Nevada is doing only marginally better than other states in the "red zone".  Travel restrictions currently vary state to state but, for instance, if I were to travel to New Mexico from Arizona, I'd have to quarantine for 14 days.  Nevada at least has a mask mandate (AZ does not!). We need a federal mask mandate. It is insane that we do not.

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2 часа назад, LadyLou сказал:

Though, looking at how things are going in the USA, I woulnd't be surprised if GP just didn't happen.

Yes, there's less and less hope considering US is one of the strongest feds. 

 

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I agree that number of tests is not fully representative cuz it's not the same as number of people tested. If one tests positive, likely that person will be tested several times until it's negative. Medics are tested regularly, politics and maybe some other professions.

 

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17 hours ago, SitTwizzle said:

[admin edit: getting too political]

 

15 hours ago, Veveco said:

NO. Stop saying the increase in US cases is merely due to more tests. It's absolutely inaccurate and I'm tired of people spreading misinformation. 

1) People are not tested randomly so there is no reason that the % positive case should remain the same. Lower % doesn't mean the spread is slowing down, it means the test is now open to more people and thus include population less at risk (in other words, when you have limited tests avalaible, you test the most suspect cases first so the % will be higher).

2) Hospitalization rates are also on the rise in several states. These are basically independent from testing, proving that it's not just the number of tests.

3) Death rates have also started to increase in several states in the past 2 weeks. Look at Texas. Look at Florida.

Sorry for the rant but I find this sort of denial insulting for the health care professionals who are still working crazy shifts and risking their lives with improper ppe on a daily basis. Now I'm going to take a walk to calm down.

Let's be perfectly clear. Testing has zero to do with cases.  Zero.  If we did no testing at all, there would still be close to 140K dead in the US - we just wouldn't know why.  The positivity rate is what matters.   And, seriously, think of testing this way: If I don't take a test, does that mean I can't be pregnant?  Can we avoid all cancers by just not testing?  And - the source of the false narrative - if testing is pointless, why does the president get one every day?  Now pushing kids going back to school as if nothing is wrong. Why educate people of you aren't going to listen to the educated ones?  Enough on my rant.

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8 hours ago, Glory said:

Maybe they will just push back all comps a month or so

GP schedule is pretty tight so I don't know if they want to push back :( 

 

Let's say GP does happen as scheduled. It is likely that quarantine would still be required in some GP countries by then, so per standard, 14 days of staying still upon arrival. China and I think Japan are making this compulsory? 

 

Or maybe there can be a leeway or this to happen with the minimal number of participants, organizers and audience so the risks can be reduced, but that would mean incurring financial loss, esp. on the part of the organizers or even the athletes if they have to cover all the costs, alas what will happen in the Challengers this year. 

 

I don't know, maybe cancelling the GP series is better? 

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I've been so spoiled these past few years, going to competitions once or twice a year to see Yuzu skate. It feels so strange now in July to not have ANY tickets in hand for the coming Fall season, and to have no idea when or where we might see Yuzu skate again. Maybe Christmas at Japanese nationals?

It will be hard to wait, but for sure HE is worth waiting for. In so many ways, this loooooonngg break might be incredibly good for him. He is so self motivated, I don't think he needs the impetus of an upcoming competition to stay focused. But now he has the time to work on that 4A and new programs at the pace he wants. No international travel to wear him out. Plushenko's advice to him after pyeongchang (I think) was that Yuzu can certainly keep competing for TWO MORE Olympic cycles, especially if he does limited # of competitions during the season, like skipping the Grand Prix. 

I am INCREDIBLY excited to see what he comes up with whenever he returns to competition!!! :PurpleBanana:

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22 минуты назад, Melodie сказал:

I don't know, maybe cancelling the GP series is better? 

Financially I think if they cancel GP ISU may not get TV money (though don't know how it works if at least part of the season is cancelled), so maybe still better to hold it without audience and with limited personnel (like press, etc.). At the same time I don't think it's possible for organizers to decide anything without consulting with country's host officials at least. So we must simply wait for decision.

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Off-current-topic but this tweet hasn't been shared here yet, has it?

@Fay, is this what you mentioned during the streaming party tonight?

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Yes, it was that! 

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22 minutes ago, sweetwater said:

Off-current-topic but this tweet hasn't been shared here yet, has it?

 

I really hope this collab can happen! Even a virtual one, with Yuzu skating on one of Ikuko's pieces, would be AWESOME :tumblr_inline_n18qr5lPWB1qid2nw::tumblr_inline_n18qr5lPWB1qid2nw:

And we know Yuzu can make awesome programs even getting choreo through vids:loveeyes: (or it might be the chance for working again with jpn choreographers!)

 

ETA: do we know anything about 24hTV? I know Yuzu partecipating is just a hope at the moment, but were other performers/partecipants announced?

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12 hours ago, barbara said:

I wonder how set in stone this is - SCI bridges Oct into Nov - and there are only four other GP events before the final. If Yuzu (and Shoma and Rika) can't compete in two of the final four, they won't qualify for the Final - so would they compete in any at all?  Perhaps - and I am being as optimistic in these uncertain times as I can be - JSF will recognize that and allow the senior skaters to go to SCI (?). Otherwise, what? No international comps until 4CC?

4CC can't happen unless it's relocated, Australia has pretty well closed their borders until March 2021

 

10 hours ago, Glory said:

Maybe they will just push back all comps a month or so

That would be awesome. 

 

@sweetwater I was under the impression this was a new and different announcement...my bad. And I should have known better than to take IK at face value given how they go for the dramatic interpretation everytime 

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