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2019/2020 Season prediction game


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After 3 events, here's the current overall standings.  Ralucutzagy is short one event, Louitunes is missing the BQ for 1 event, and mercedes was short a couple BQ as well. Hopefully we'll get all the kinks worked out for the next game

 

Legacy and Hope 85
sallycinnamon 82
LadyLou 81
airi 77
mercedes 76
Old Cat Lady 75
river 75
Paskud 69
TeaFrida 65
Louitunes 62
ralucutzagy 49
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3 hours ago, Old Cat Lady said:

@sallycinnamon @LadyLou @Legacy and Hope @river @Paskud @mercedes @airi @Louitunes @TeaFrida

 

Results of the IdF game.  As usual, don't hesitate to speak up if you see anything weird - I wouldn't trust me too much.  Unfortunately Louitunes, those were the wrong bonus questions so I couldn't give credit.  I shockingly won this round after finishing near the bottom twice - scored myself twice thinking I must have made a mistake somewhere.

 

 

  Men Ladies Pairs Dance BQ1 BQ2 BQ3 BQ4 BQ5 Total Points
Old Cat Lady 6 9 4 7 2 0 2 0 2 32
Legacy and Hope 3 7 6 9 2 2 2 0 0 31
airi 6 3 4 9 2 2 2 0 2 30
LadyLou 6 3 4 9 0 2 2 2 2 30
mercedes 4 9 2 9 0 2 0 2 2 30
sallycinnamon 6 3 4 9 2 2 0 0 2 28
river 6 7 2 9 0 2 2 0 0 28
ralucutzagy 6 3 3 9 0 2 2 2 0 27
Paskud 1 7 4 9 0 2 0 0 0 23
TeaFrida 4 1 4 9 0 2 0 0 2 22
Louitunes 6 3 3 5           17

 

 

Answer Key      
Men's Podium 1. Chen 2. Samarin 3. Aymoz
Ladies Podium 1. Kostornaia 2. Zagitova 3. Bell
Pairs Podium 1. Mishina/Galliamov 2. Pavliuchenko/Khodykin
3. Denney/Frazier
Dance Podium 1. Papadakis/Cizeron 2. Chock/Bates
3. Guignard/Fabbri

BQ1: Will anyone in singles or pairs have all positive GOE's and level 4 elements?

No

 

BQ2: Will any of the medalists get a v in their spins

No

 

BQ3: Will there be more quads+3axels with positive GOE by the Skate Canada men's and ladies medalists or by the entire IdF field?

IdF - 28 clean quads and 3 axels  (Skate Canada medalists had 22)

 

BQ4: Who will get the highest GOE before factoring on a single element. 1st tie breaker is GOE with high and low added back in. 2nd tie breaker is GOE on the skater's 2nd highest element.

Nathan Chen - Choreo sequence - +5

 

BQ5: which disciplines will have a new season's best?

Dance only

Glad I at least got a small score being as I skidded my predictions in at the very last second like Pierre Souquet's crazy last minute fall in the ID short!!!!  Totally missing the correct BQ's. 

 

Back in Blighty and missing my morning coffee's at Pain and Cie and the excitement of watching a live competition. (Although not the huge French queues or horrid hot dogs). 

 

New loves acquired were Tomoki (OK not new he's already in my fish tank) but his performances were so entertaining, Yuna who I really loved, Tiffani Zargorsku's hair and both costumes, Olivia and Adrian's Ex, Daria and Denise's FP and that amazing dangerous forward roll in his arms.  

 

Thanks for organising this - it's so much fun.  I'll be more organised for COC.  

 

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3 hours ago, Old Cat Lady said:

BQ4: Who will get the highest GOE before factoring on a single element. 1st tie breaker is GOE with high and low added back in. 2nd tie breaker is GOE on the skater's 2nd highest element.

Nathan Chen - Choreo sequence - +5

This is getting way too easy to predict :P

 

As usual, :thanks:

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CoC predictions done

LMAO men predictions are a mess, with no clear n°1 in the field and all the guys having had...fluctuating results in this season. Even in ID there is huge uncertainty for gold... curious to see if C/B can strenghten their claim and win then they would have comparable results with H/D and strenghten their claim to replace them as 1st USA team...GPF ID is interesting for the early insights about politicking:P

maybe the less predictable of all the events thus far, the safest prediction is Anna's gold but for the other disciplines...:smiley-scared003:

even bonus questions are hard to guess

My hope is that this season there will be no reason for it to be a Cup of Disaster, after SA scoring and GP France general...everything, I am scared:tumblr_inline_mg16f1RxCn1qdlkyg:

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21 hours ago, Sayu93 said:

When I do make a prediction I try to find a good balance between previously well scored skaters and my personal wishfullfillment

 

I normally go purely by point potential + form and a peek at ISU best scores unless it's ice dance and I'm too lazy to even look for results so I just pick whatever names I recognize.

 

But since the men's event is a complete crapshoot and my other favorites have no shot at GPF, I picked Keiji to win.  Trying to use whatever cosmic force I can muster to will him to the GPF.

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I guessed based on if all of the men show up and skate as well as they can - we all know we won't get that lucky, but it's just as likely as anything else to happen, I suppose? This is probably the most unpredictable field of the entire GP series.

 

(I can't guess based on what I want to happen. I have a solid track record of jinxing my men's silver medalist, so that's a guaranteed way to make sure it won't happen. So far that's been Boyang, Matteo, and Shoma.)

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Predictions in - some more wishes than predictions.  Skating at his best Boyang would blitz the mens but he's been so off lately.  It is China so he may just pull it off though.  Cannot wait to see Sui and Han I just adore every programme I've ever seen of theirs.  I think the BQ's from me are pure guesses in whatever competition.  Only just found out what > and >> actually means.  :omg:

 

Wishing good luck Kaitlin and Jean-Luc and hoping to see the 'black swan' and bird shoulder piece give a great performance.

 

 

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41 minutes ago, Legacy and Hope said:

Submitted just in time (I hope?) 

 

Yup.  Still 1.5 hours until ice dance starts.  And even if you're late, it would only disqualifying you from answering questions for that discipline.  The only purpose of the time limit is so no one gets an unfair advantage.

 

btw, I already wrote up GPF prediction form but I excluded the men's podium predictions because it's a big event and at the last big event involving Yuzu, there was a lot of abstention for fear of jinx and the ones who did predict felt guilty for the jinx.  But there are a lot more bonus question's to make up the difference.  If everyone wants me to put the men's podium prediction back on the form, let me know.

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@sallycinnamon @LadyLou @Legacy and Hope @river @Paskud @mercedes @airi @Louitunes @TeaFrida@Sukigirl @ralucutzagy @Sayu93 @Figure_Frenzy

 

TeaFrida is the only one to have guessed 2 of the men's medalists correctly.  If you got a 0 for the men's predictions, don't worry - you weren't alone.

 

Results in order of high score:

 

river 5 6 6 9 2 0 2 2 2 34
airi 0 6 9 9 2 0 2 2 2 32
Sukigirl 5 5 6 9 2 0 0 2 2 31
Paskud 3 5 6 9 0 2 2 0 2 29
ralucutzagy 3 5 6 6 2 0 2 0 2 26
LadyLou 3 5 6 5 2 0 2 2 0 25
Legacy and Hope 0 6 6 9 2 0 2 0 0 25
mercedes 5 4 6 3 0 0 2 2 2 24
Sayu93 3 5 4 6 2 0 2 2 0 24
Old Cat Lady 2 5 6 6 0 2 0 2 0 23
sallycinnamon 3 4 9 5 0 0 2 0 0 23
TeaFrida 6 5 6 0 2 0 0 2 2 23
Figure Frenzy 0 4 6 6 2 0 0 2 2 22
Louitunes 2 1 6 9 2 0 0 0 0 20

 

 

 

Answer Key:

Men's Podium 1. Boyang Jin 2. Han Yan 3. Matteo Rizzo
4. Keegan Messing
 
Ladies Podium 1. Anna Scherbakova 2. Satoko Miyahara 3. Elizaveta Tutkamysheva 4. Young You  
Pairs Podium 1. Sui/Han 2. Pen/Jin 3. Ilyushekina/Bilodeau
4. Della Monica/Guarise
 
Dance Podium 1. Sinitsina/Katsalapov 2. Chock/Bates 3. Fournier Beaudry/Soensen 4. Wang/Liu  

 

BQ1: Will the men's or ladies' medalists have higher FS scores before factoring (will use raw PCS)

Men - 372.83 (Ladies had 360.82).  The men pulled ahead largely on the back of Boyang's resurgence and Scherbakova getting ! called on all 3 lutzes

 

BQ2: Who will have the highest raw PCS across both programs?

Sinitsina/Katsalapov - 93.83 total

 

BQ3: Which champion will win by the smallest margin?

Dance - 1.35 points

 

BQ4: Who will get the highest GOE on a spin (includes dance, pair, sbs, and singles spins)

Satoko Miyahara FS - layback - 4.44

 

BQ5: Will the men or ladies have more < and <<

Ladies had 3 times as many carots called at 45 to 15 for the men

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