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2019/2020 Season prediction game


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Well I'm rather pleased with my result (going to ignore the Overall Average table. 😜).

 

 @Old Cat Lady thank you so much for organising all of this.  It was fun and apologies that I screeched my predictions in at the last moment at times. 

 

Round of applause and hip hip hurrah's for you. :clapping-smiley::clapping-smiley::clapping-smiley:

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11 hours ago, Old Cat Lady said:

 

This was a disaster for everyone so you still finished 2nd. This is by far the lowest scoring event. Everyone's answers - let me know if something doesn't look right: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QP4jngmC7nCTesXD31DsChJG9KqwGNMnvTfI72QnN7c/edit?usp=sharing

 

ralucutzagy was the only one to guess Scherbakova for silver. 

Sayu93 was the only one to guess Trusova for bronze.

Everyone picked Boikova/Kozlovskii for either silver or gold.  No one picked Mishina/Galliamov to medal.

 

We were unanimous in answering top 2 for BQ8 and we were unanimously wrong.  Yuzu+Yale got almost twice as many quads as the rest of the field, but everyone except Aliev hit all their 3 axels so they were able to squeak ahead. Y+Y got 15 (16 if you count Yuzu's 4t in the 4t/e/3f - I didn't even though the toe was obviously clean because my definition of "clean" is positive GOE and it doesn't get scored separately) vs. 17 for the rest 

 

There was a tie for number of ladies 3 axels vs. quads.  Since I didn't have tie as an option, I gave everyone the points considering our scores are sad enough as is.

 

I realized that the wording for BQ7 was a bit ambiguous - I meant 2019 worlds + this year's grand prix events.  I worded it "qualifying events", which I think everyone could only take to mean this year's grand prix events so I kept that but for "worlds" I took into consideration all previous worlds since I didn't specify which one.  Luckily, I don't believe it affected the answer because Stepanova/Bukin have never beaten Sinitsina/Katsalapov at a worlds.  

 

We were also unanimously wrong for BQ10, with 13 answering Jin and 1 Tennell

 

I did not count Yuzu's 3a/3a for BQ2 because I forgot about sequences and the wording of my question was "combo", though that did not affect the answer.

 

Shockingly, Chen did not get +5 for his choreo seq., though that did not really affect the game results.

 

 

Segment ranking:

  Ladies Pairs Dance BQ1 BQ2 BQ3 BQ4 BQ5 BQ6 BQ7 BQ8 BQ9 BQ10 Total Points
Sayu93 6 7 3 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 22
river 2 3 6 2 2 2 2 2 0 2 0 2 0 21
Paskud 5 4 4 2 2 2 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 19
airi 5 3 3 2 2 2 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 17
Legacy and Hope 2 4 3 2 2 2 0 2 2 0 0 2 0 17
sallycinnamon 2 3 6 0 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 17
Old Cat Lady 5 1 6 0 2 2 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 16
LadyLou 2 1 6 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 15
Louitunes 4 4 3 0 2 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 15
Figure Frenzy 5 4 3 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 14
Sukigirl 2 3 3 2 2 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 14
ralucutzagy 3 4 4 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 13
TeaFrida 2 4 3 0 2 2 0 0 2 2 0 2 0 13
mercedes 0 4 3 0 0 2 0 0 2 2 0 2 0 9

 

Answer Key            
Ladies Podium            
1. Kostornaya 2. Scherbakova 3. Trusova 4. Kihira      
             
Pairs Podium            
1. Sui/Han 2. Peng/Jin 3. Mishina/Galliamov
4. Boikova/Kozlovskii
     
             
Dance Podium            
1. Papadakis/Cizeron 2. Chock/Bates 3. Hubbell/Donohue 4. Stepanova/Bukin      
             
BQ1: Which discipline will have the most 10's and +5 GOE elements before factoring?
           
Dance: Papadakis/Cizeron          
  FD - SILi4          
  Composition          
  Interpretation          
             
BQ2: Will anyone attempt a jump or combo that they have not previously landed?
           
Yes Trusova: 4f, 3a          
  Kihira: 4s          
  Scherbakova: 4f          
             
BQ3: In ladies, will there be more clean quads or 3 axels?
           
Tie 3a - 4
Kostornaya:3, Kihira: 1
       
  quads - 4 Trusova: 4f, 4lz, 4t        
    Scherbakova: 4lz        
             
BQ4: Will anyone in singles or pairs have all Level 4's, positive GOE's, and no pops?
           
No
Kostornaya & Chen both got vl 3 on their FS stsq
         
             
BQ5: In which disciplines will we have a new WORLD record?
           
Ladies SP, Total          
Men FS, Total          
             
BQ6: In ice dance, will any of the medalists finish lower in the Free Dance than the overall?
           
No            
             
BQ7: In ice dance, will any couple defeat a couple that they have not beaten either at worlds or during their GP qualifying events?
           
Yes
Stepanova/Bukin defeated Sinitsina/Katsalapov
         
             
BQ8: In the men's event, will there be more clean quads + 3 axels landed by the top 2 or by 3-6?
           
3-6 Top 2: 12 a, 3 3a=15
Doesn't count Yuzu's 4t/e/3f because combo got neg GOE
       
  3-6: 7 q, 10 3a=17          
             
BQ9: Will the largest point margin be between 1st and 3rd in men or between 1st and 6th of one of the other disciplines?
           
Men 1 to 3 59.67          
             
BQ10: Who will have the largest point disparity from their worst GP event and their best (including GPF)?
           
Aliev 39.84

259.88: Skate America

220.04 at GPF      

 

 

Overall results total:

  Total Skate America Skate Canada IdF Cup of China Rostelecom NHK Qualifying GPF
river 241 28 19 28 34 32 37 42 21
Legacy and Hope 230 31 23 31 25 31 32 40 17
sallycinnamon 228 32 22 28 23 29 31 46 17
airi 226 23 24 30 32 33 25 42 17
Old Cat Lady 221 22 21 32 23 32 31 44 16
LadyLou 214 31 20 30 25 22 27 44 15
Paskud 209 23 23 23 29 33 25 34 19
mercedes 190 25 21 30 24 23 24 34 9
TeaFrida 190 18 25 22 23 21 24 44 13
Louitunes 186 22 23 17 20 23 30 36 15
ralucutzagy 151   22 27 26 32 31   13
Sukigirl 105       31 33 27   14
Sayu93 102       24 26 30   22
Figure_Frenzy 91       22 26 29   14

 

Overall Averages:

  Ave Skate America Skate Canada IdF Cup of China Rostelecom NHK GPF
river 28.43 28 19 28 34 32 37 21
Legacy and Hope 27.14 31 23 31 25 31 32 17
airi 26.29 23 24 30 32 33 25 17
Sukigirl 26.25       31 33 27 14
sallycinnamon 26.00 32 22 28 23 29 31 17
Sayu93 25.50       24 26 30 22
Old Cat Lady 25.29 22 21 32 23 32 31 16
ralucutzagy 25.17   22 27 26 32 31 13
Paskud 25.00 23 23 23 29 33 25 19
LadyLou 24.29 31 20 30 25 22 27 15
Figure_Frenzy 22.75       22 26 29 14
mercedes 22.29 25 21 30 24 23 24 9
Louitunes 21.43 22 23 17 20 23 30 15
TeaFrida 20.86 18 25 22 23 21 24 13


Congrats to the medalists! :balloons-smiley:

 

Let me know if you have any suggestions for next time.  Maybe we'll play again for 4cc, Europeans, and worlds. 

 

 

@river @Legacy and Hope @airi @Sukigirl @sallycinnamon @Sayu93 @ralucutzagy @Paskud @LadyLou @Figure_Frenzy @mercedes @Louitunes @TeaFrida

I had  a moment of glory for IDF it seems LOL

thank you for doing this,it was really fun!

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So I got a bronze medal after all and a gold at GPF predictions. Good that I didn't have a silver medal this time...whenever I enter any competition/game etc I usually end up being the silver medalist LOL

Thanks for doing this @Old Cat Lady. It would be nice if you could do this for ISU Championships as well, Euros/4CC/Worlds...

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I'm honestly shocked that I did so well this year. Last year was my first year watching the GP series and I pretty much bombed the prediction game. At least I can say I learned something, despite having based all my Pairs and ID predictions on what other people were saying since I don't watch those :shrug:

I actually got BQ8 right according to my memory and the spreadsheet. Doesn't affect anything scoring-wise. Just gives me bragging rights. :space:

 

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@airi @Figure_Frenzy @LadyLou @Legacy and Hope @Louitunes @mercedes @Paskud @ralucutzagy @river @sallycinnamon @Sayu93 @Sukigirl @TeaFrida

I've been on vacation for the last week and didn't realize Europeans was so soon.  Sorry, if this is a little late but here's the form if people still want to play.  Deadline is when the first skater steps on the ice for his SP, which I believe is the men's SP in 5 days, 2.5 hours.

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfZn_qmQVqMnDnTMpxRIx9y7PXr-67hGgvO1lLAX3hEqpSiUA/viewform?usp=pp_url

 

eta: forgot the entries for Europeans

http://www.isuresults.com/results/season1920/ec2020/

 

 

I changed the title to include the other ISU events but if you guys think it's easier to have a separate thread, let me know.  I also corrected previous scores - we didn't do quite as abysmally as I thought on the GPF - I had the formula wrong for the totals and I fixed Legacy and Hope's score to BQ8. Here's updated totals - sorry about that.  I'll make sure to post the spreadsheet to all the answers so people can check their scores.  

 

Grand Prix Final Scores

  Ladies Pairs Dance BQ1 BQ2 BQ3 BQ4 BQ5 BQ6 BQ7 BQ8 BQ9 BQ10 Total Points
river 2 3 6 2 2 2 2 2 0 2 0 2 0 25
Paskud 5 4 4 2 2 2 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 23
Legacy and Hope 2 4 3 2 2 2 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 23
Sayu93 6 7 3 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 22
airi 5 3 3 2 2 2 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 21
Old Cat Lady 5 1 6 0 2 2 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 20
sallycinnamon 2 3 6 0 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 19
TeaFrida 2 4 3 0 2 2 0 0 2 2 0 2 0 19
Louitunes 4 4 3 0 2 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 17
ralucutzagy 3 4 4 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 17
LadyLou 2 1 6 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 17
Figure Frenzy 5 4 3 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 16
Sukigirl 2 3 3 2 2 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 16
mercedes 0 4 3 0 0 2 0 0 2 2 0 2 0 15

 

Overall Grand Prix Series

  Total Skate America Skate Canada IdF Cup of China Rostelecom NHK Qualifying GPF
river 245 28 19 28 34 32 37 42 25
Legacy and Hope 236 31 23 31 25 31 32 40 23
airi 230 23 24 30 32 33 25 42 21
sallycinnamon 230 32 22 28 23 29 31 46 19
Old Cat Lady 225 22 21 32 23 32 31 44 20
LadyLou 216 31 20 30 25 22 27 44 17
Paskud 213 23 23 23 29 33 25 34 23
mercedes 196 25 21 30 24 23 24 34 15
TeaFrida 196 18 25 22 23 21 24 44 19
Louitunes 188 22 23 17 20 23 30 36 17
ralucutzagy 155   22 27 26 32 31   17
Sukigirl 107       31 33 27   16
Sayu93 102       24 26 30   22
Figure_Frenzy 93       22 26 29   16

 

 

Grand Prix event Averages

  Ave Skate America Skate Canada IdF Cup of China Rostelecom NHK GPF
river 29.00 28 19 28 34 32 37 25
Legacy and Hope 28.00 31 23 31 25 31 32 23
airi 26.86 23 24 30 32 33 25 21
Sukigirl 26.75       31 33 27 16
sallycinnamon 26.29 32 22 28 23 29 31 19
Old Cat Lady 25.86 22 21 32 23 32 31 20
ralucutzagy 25.83   22 27 26 32 31 17
Paskud 25.57 23 23 23 29 33 25 23
Sayu93 25.50       24 26 30 22
LadyLou 24.57 31 20 30 25 22 27 17
Figure_Frenzy 23.25       22 26 29 16
mercedes 23.14 25 21 30 24 23 24 15
Louitunes 21.71 22 23 17 20 23 30 17
TeaFrida 21.71 18 25 22 23 21 24 19

 

Overall Season Scores - Includes Autumn Classic Scores

  Total Skate America Skate Canada IdF Cup of China Rostelecom NHK GPF Qualifying GPF Autumn Classic
river 266 28 19 28 34 32 37 42 25 21
sallycinnamon 255 32 22 28 23 29 31 46 19 25
airi 250 23 24 30 32 33 25 42 21 20
Old Cat Lady 246 22 21 32 23 32 31 44 20 21
LadyLou 244 31 20 30 25 22 27 44 17 28
Legacy and Hope 236 31 23 31 25 31 32 40 23  
Paskud 228 23 23 23 29 33 25 34 23 15
mercedes 206 25 21 30 24 23 24 34 15 10
TeaFrida 196 18 25 22 23 21 24 44 19  
Louitunes 188 22 23 17 20 23 30 36 17  
ralucutzagy 155   22 27 26 32 31   17  
Sukigirl 107       31 33 27   16  
Sayu93 102       24 26 30   22  
Figure_Frenzy 93       22 26 29   16  
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Thank you @Old Cat Lady 😊

I will try to do my predictions tomorrow after checking all the PB stats to try to have a not-so-wild guess for Men (whole Men podium is mightly hard to predict... for ladies at least one can easily guess a russian sweep in whichever order😅)

Tho it looks like my results in this prediction game have been getting worse and worse :judgmental:

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Cheers again @Old Cat Lady

 

In an attempt to keep Samarin off the podium I've omitted his name in my predictions.  (Insert - Stick Out Tongue Emoji - here) 

 

I hope to keep my position near the bottom of the list as I can only go upwards next season........ or can I????

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LMAO looking at the stats didn't help much

I kinda expect Sasha Samarin to do better than Dima now (sorry Dima), and while I am betting against Sasha Trusova this time, I think she'll do much better in Euros compared to GPF and Nats (she must be HUNGRY for a win now) so I truly feel like calling her vengeance upon me predicting her "only" for another bronze:peekapooh:

 

The question about ladies getting higher tes... :hihi:

 

(while doing the predictions I have realized that I expect italian skaters to get pewter at most :facepalm: it would be nice to be positively surprised)

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   @Legacy and Hope @mercedes @Paskud  @sallycinnamon @Sayu93 @Sukigirl @TeaFrida

 

Just a reminder that there's 5 more hours before the beginning of the event if you still want to play this round.  

 

If you get it in late, just skip the men's predictions and you can do the rest.

 

Also, anyone is welcome to join if they want to play and I'll add you to the notification list.

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