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2019/2020 Season prediction game


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1 hour ago, Paskud said:

What? Bukin's name is Ivan. Andrei Bukin is his father.

Well I don't quite know how I did that.  I have a big spreadsheet - perhaps picked up the Christian name from another couple above or below them by accident.  😂😂.  I'll use surnames in future.  I certainly meant Stepanova and Bukin.  As usual I did it late at night and in a rush.  :10742290:

 

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14 minutes ago, Old Cat Lady said:

 

:redface:  Oh dear.  Brain fart.  Corrected my post. Thx

 

In that case, if Igor is a diminutive of Ivan, let me know.  AFAIK, they're separate first names.

Can't stop laughing how the hell did I type Igor instead of Ivan.   :67638860:  I thought I'd somehow picked up the Christian name of competitor above or below on my spreadsheet.  Just shoot me now!!!!! 

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4 hours ago, Louitunes said:

Well I don't quite know how I did that.  I have a big spreadsheet - perhaps picked up the Christian name from another couple above or below them by accident.  😂😂.  I'll use surnames in future.  I certainly meant Stepanova and Bukin.  As usual I did it late at night and in a rush.  :10742290:

 

:consoling2:

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15 hours ago, Louitunes said:

Can't stop laughing how the hell did I type Igor instead of Ivan.   :67638860:  I thought I'd somehow picked up the Christian name of competitor above or below on my spreadsheet.  Just shoot me now!!!!! 

 

Well I didn't do any better.  I called him Andrei.  

 

I thought about giving you the points since I was 90% sure I knew what you meant but wasn't sure if that would be fair to everyone else.

 

I'm going for a couple upsets for GPF predictions. I'm in the middle of the pack so the only way for me to have a shot at catching River is for something unexpected to happen.

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 @Legacy and Hope  @Paskud @mercedes @airi @Louitunes @ralucutzagy @Sayu93   @sallycinnamon

 

Oops.  just a reminder that there's still one more round.  Sorry, the last post was just meant to be an update but you guys still have a chance to catch up if river manages to bomb :P

 

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSf8P0GKYUfM2HwDehaDMHzepBdcrG3l69PcA9F5A99cVR7SxA/viewform?usp=pp_url

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2 hours ago, Old Cat Lady said:

 @Legacy and Hope  @Paskud @mercedes @airi @Louitunes @ralucutzagy @Sayu93   @sallycinnamon

 

Oops.  just a reminder that there's still one more round.  Sorry, the last post was just meant to be an update but you guys still have a chance to catch up if river manages to bomb :P

 

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSf8P0GKYUfM2HwDehaDMHzepBdcrG3l69PcA9F5A99cVR7SxA/viewform?usp=pp_url

 

Oops, somehow I thought there wouldn't be a final round, then I have to predict the last round well to stay on the podium :tumblr_m9gct8HYvv1qzckow:

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2 hours ago, Old Cat Lady said:

you guys still have a chance to catch up if river manages to bomb


Well, given that historically, the bonus questions haven’t been my strong point and there are 10 of them this time (and the fields are stronger and therefore less predictable) I’d say there’s a decent chance it’ll happen. :68468287:

 

At least we aren’t going back to Canada for the GPF. But if I have to take on the Canadian curse so that Yuzu can finally win, I’ll do it.

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In case anyone is curious - yep, I'm totally bombing this one so far. Pretty sure every time the results roll in for a discipline, I have the same look on my face that Hubbell had on hers in the K&C at 4CC last season when they got that base level call.

 

Edit: yep, after all is said and done, that was a disaster.

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On 12/7/2019 at 1:40 PM, river said:

Edit: yep, after all is said and done, that was a disaster.

 

This was a disaster for everyone so you still finished 2nd. This is by far the lowest scoring event. Everyone's answers - let me know if something doesn't look right: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QP4jngmC7nCTesXD31DsChJG9KqwGNMnvTfI72QnN7c/edit?usp=sharing

 

ralucutzagy was the only one to guess Scherbakova for silver. 

Sayu93 was the only one to guess Trusova for bronze.

Everyone picked Boikova/Kozlovskii for either silver or gold.  No one picked Mishina/Galliamov to medal.

 

We were unanimous in answering top 2 for BQ8 and we were unanimously wrong.  Yuzu+Yale got almost twice as many quads as the rest of the field, but everyone except Aliev hit all their 3 axels so they were able to squeak ahead. Y+Y got 15 (16 if you count Yuzu's 4t in the 4t/e/3f - I didn't even though the toe was obviously clean because my definition of "clean" is positive GOE and it doesn't get scored separately) vs. 17 for the rest 

 

There was a tie for number of ladies 3 axels vs. quads.  Since I didn't have tie as an option, I gave everyone the points considering our scores are sad enough as is.

 

I realized that the wording for BQ7 was a bit ambiguous - I meant 2019 worlds + this year's grand prix events.  I worded it "qualifying events", which I think everyone could only take to mean this year's grand prix events so I kept that but for "worlds" I took into consideration all previous worlds since I didn't specify which one.  Luckily, I don't believe it affected the answer because Stepanova/Bukin have never beaten Sinitsina/Katsalapov at a worlds.  

 

We were also unanimously wrong for BQ10, with 13 answering Jin and 1 Tennell

 

I did not count Yuzu's 3a/3a for BQ2 because I forgot about sequences and the wording of my question was "combo", though that did not affect the answer.

 

Shockingly, Chen did not get +5 for his choreo seq., though that did not really affect the game results.

 

 

Segment ranking:

  Ladies Pairs Dance BQ1 BQ2 BQ3 BQ4 BQ5 BQ6 BQ7 BQ8 BQ9 BQ10 Total Points
Sayu93 6 7 3 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 22
river 2 3 6 2 2 2 2 2 0 2 0 2 0 21
Paskud 5 4 4 2 2 2 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 19
airi 5 3 3 2 2 2 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 17
Legacy and Hope 2 4 3 2 2 2 0 2 2 0 0 2 0 17
sallycinnamon 2 3 6 0 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 17
Old Cat Lady 5 1 6 0 2 2 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 16
LadyLou 2 1 6 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 15
Louitunes 4 4 3 0 2 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 15
Figure Frenzy 5 4 3 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 14
Sukigirl 2 3 3 2 2 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 14
ralucutzagy 3 4 4 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 13
TeaFrida 2 4 3 0 2 2 0 0 2 2 0 2 0 13
mercedes 0 4 3 0 0 2 0 0 2 2 0 2 0 9

 

Answer Key            
Ladies Podium            
1. Kostornaya 2. Scherbakova 3. Trusova 4. Kihira      
             
Pairs Podium            
1. Sui/Han 2. Peng/Jin 3. Mishina/Galliamov
4. Boikova/Kozlovskii
     
             
Dance Podium            
1. Papadakis/Cizeron 2. Chock/Bates 3. Hubbell/Donohue 4. Stepanova/Bukin      
             
BQ1: Which discipline will have the most 10's and +5 GOE elements before factoring?
           
Dance: Papadakis/Cizeron          
  FD - SILi4          
  Composition          
  Interpretation          
             
BQ2: Will anyone attempt a jump or combo that they have not previously landed?
           
Yes Trusova: 4f, 3a          
  Kihira: 4s          
  Scherbakova: 4f          
             
BQ3: In ladies, will there be more clean quads or 3 axels?
           
Tie 3a - 4
Kostornaya:3, Kihira: 1
       
  quads - 4 Trusova: 4f, 4lz, 4t        
    Scherbakova: 4lz        
             
BQ4: Will anyone in singles or pairs have all Level 4's, positive GOE's, and no pops?
           
No
Kostornaya & Chen both got vl 3 on their FS stsq
         
             
BQ5: In which disciplines will we have a new WORLD record?
           
Ladies SP, Total          
Men FS, Total          
             
BQ6: In ice dance, will any of the medalists finish lower in the Free Dance than the overall?
           
No            
             
BQ7: In ice dance, will any couple defeat a couple that they have not beaten either at worlds or during their GP qualifying events?
           
Yes
Stepanova/Bukin defeated Sinitsina/Katsalapov
         
             
BQ8: In the men's event, will there be more clean quads + 3 axels landed by the top 2 or by 3-6?
           
3-6 Top 2: 12 a, 3 3a=15
Doesn't count Yuzu's 4t/e/3f because combo got neg GOE
       
  3-6: 7 q, 10 3a=17          
             
BQ9: Will the largest point margin be between 1st and 3rd in men or between 1st and 6th of one of the other disciplines?
           
Men 1 to 3 59.67          
             
BQ10: Who will have the largest point disparity from their worst GP event and their best (including GPF)?
           
Aliev 39.84

259.88: Skate America

220.04 at GPF      

 

 

Overall results total:

  Total Skate America Skate Canada IdF Cup of China Rostelecom NHK Qualifying GPF
river 241 28 19 28 34 32 37 42 21
Legacy and Hope 230 31 23 31 25 31 32 40 17
sallycinnamon 228 32 22 28 23 29 31 46 17
airi 226 23 24 30 32 33 25 42 17
Old Cat Lady 221 22 21 32 23 32 31 44 16
LadyLou 214 31 20 30 25 22 27 44 15
Paskud 209 23 23 23 29 33 25 34 19
mercedes 190 25 21 30 24 23 24 34 9
TeaFrida 190 18 25 22 23 21 24 44 13
Louitunes 186 22 23 17 20 23 30 36 15
ralucutzagy 151   22 27 26 32 31   13
Sukigirl 105       31 33 27   14
Sayu93 102       24 26 30   22
Figure_Frenzy 91       22 26 29   14

 

Overall Averages:

  Ave Skate America Skate Canada IdF Cup of China Rostelecom NHK GPF
river 28.43 28 19 28 34 32 37 21
Legacy and Hope 27.14 31 23 31 25 31 32 17
airi 26.29 23 24 30 32 33 25 17
Sukigirl 26.25       31 33 27 14
sallycinnamon 26.00 32 22 28 23 29 31 17
Sayu93 25.50       24 26 30 22
Old Cat Lady 25.29 22 21 32 23 32 31 16
ralucutzagy 25.17   22 27 26 32 31 13
Paskud 25.00 23 23 23 29 33 25 19
LadyLou 24.29 31 20 30 25 22 27 15
Figure_Frenzy 22.75       22 26 29 14
mercedes 22.29 25 21 30 24 23 24 9
Louitunes 21.43 22 23 17 20 23 30 15
TeaFrida 20.86 18 25 22 23 21 24 13


Congrats to the medalists! :balloons-smiley:

 

Let me know if you have any suggestions for next time.  Maybe we'll play again for 4cc, Europeans, and worlds. 

 

 

@river @Legacy and Hope @airi @Sukigirl @sallycinnamon @Sayu93 @ralucutzagy @Paskud @LadyLou @Figure_Frenzy @mercedes @Louitunes @TeaFrida

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4 hours ago, Old Cat Lady said:

 

This was a disaster for everyone so you still finished 2nd. This is by far the lowest scoring event. Everyone's answers - let me know if something doesn't look right: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QP4jngmC7nCTesXD31DsChJG9KqwGNMnvTfI72QnN7c/edit?usp=sharing

 

ralucutzagy was the only one to guess Scherbakova for silver. 

Sayu93 was the only one to guess Trusova for bronze.

Everyone picked Boikova/Kozlovskii for either silver or gold.  No one picked Mishina/Galliamov to medal.

 

We were unanimous in answering top 2 for BQ8 and we were unanimously wrong.  Yuzu+Yale got almost twice as many quads as the rest of the field, but everyone except Aliev hit all their 3 axels so they were able to squeak ahead. Y+Y got 15 (16 if you count Yuzu's 4t in the 4t/e/3f - I didn't even though the toe was obviously clean because my definition of "clean" is positive GOE and it doesn't get scored separately) vs. 17 for the rest 

 

There was a tie for number of ladies 3 axels vs. quads.  Since I didn't have tie as an option, I gave everyone the points considering our scores are sad enough as is.

 

I realized that the wording for BQ7 was a bit ambiguous - I meant 2019 worlds + this year's grand prix events.  I worded it "qualifying events", which I think everyone could only take to mean this year's grand prix events so I kept that but for "worlds" I took into consideration all previous worlds since I didn't specify which one.  Luckily, I don't believe it affected the answer because Stepanova/Bukin have never beaten Sinitsina/Katsalapov at a worlds.  

 

We were also unanimously wrong for BQ10, with 13 answering Jin and 1 Tennell

 

I did not count Yuzu's 3a/3a for BQ2 because I forgot about sequences and the wording of my question was "combo", though that did not affect the answer.

 

Shockingly, Chen did not get +5 for his choreo seq., though that did not really affect the game results.

 

 

Segment ranking:

  Ladies Pairs Dance BQ1 BQ2 BQ3 BQ4 BQ5 BQ6 BQ7 BQ8 BQ9 BQ10 Total Points
Sayu93 6 7 3 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 22
river 2 3 6 2 2 2 2 2 0 2 0 2 0 21
Paskud 5 4 4 2 2 2 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 19
airi 5 3 3 2 2 2 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 17
Legacy and Hope 2 4 3 2 2 2 0 2 2 0 0 2 0 17
sallycinnamon 2 3 6 0 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 17
Old Cat Lady 5 1 6 0 2 2 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 16
LadyLou 2 1 6 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 15
Louitunes 4 4 3 0 2 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 15
Figure Frenzy 5 4 3 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 14
Sukigirl 2 3 3 2 2 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 14
ralucutzagy 3 4 4 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 13
TeaFrida 2 4 3 0 2 2 0 0 2 2 0 2 0 13
mercedes 0 4 3 0 0 2 0 0 2 2 0 2 0 9

 

Answer Key            
Ladies Podium            
1. Kostornaya 2. Scherbakova 3. Trusova 4. Kihira      
             
Pairs Podium            
1. Sui/Han 2. Peng/Jin 3. Mishina/Galliamov
4. Boikova/Kozlovskii
     
             
Dance Podium            
1. Papadakis/Cizeron 2. Chock/Bates 3. Hubbell/Donohue 4. Stepanova/Bukin      
             
BQ1: Which discipline will have the most 10's and +5 GOE elements before factoring?
           
Dance: Papadakis/Cizeron          
  FD - SILi4          
  Composition          
  Interpretation          
             
BQ2: Will anyone attempt a jump or combo that they have not previously landed?
           
Yes Trusova: 4f, 3a          
  Kihira: 4s          
  Scherbakova: 4f          
             
BQ3: In ladies, will there be more clean quads or 3 axels?
           
Tie 3a - 4
Kostornaya:3, Kihira: 1
       
  quads - 4 Trusova: 4f, 4lz, 4t        
    Scherbakova: 4lz        
             
BQ4: Will anyone in singles or pairs have all Level 4's, positive GOE's, and no pops?
           
No
Kostornaya & Chen both got vl 3 on their FS stsq
         
             
BQ5: In which disciplines will we have a new WORLD record?
           
Ladies SP, Total          
Men FS, Total          
             
BQ6: In ice dance, will any of the medalists finish lower in the Free Dance than the overall?
           
No            
             
BQ7: In ice dance, will any couple defeat a couple that they have not beaten either at worlds or during their GP qualifying events?
           
Yes
Stepanova/Bukin defeated Sinitsina/Katsalapov
         
             
BQ8: In the men's event, will there be more clean quads + 3 axels landed by the top 2 or by 3-6?
           
3-6 Top 2: 12 a, 3 3a=15
Doesn't count Yuzu's 4t/e/3f because combo got neg GOE
       
  3-6: 7 q, 10 3a=17          
             
BQ9: Will the largest point margin be between 1st and 3rd in men or between 1st and 6th of one of the other disciplines?
           
Men 1 to 3 59.67          
             
BQ10: Who will have the largest point disparity from their worst GP event and their best (including GPF)?
           
Aliev 39.84

259.88: Skate America

220.04 at GPF      

 

 

Overall results total:

  Total Skate America Skate Canada IdF Cup of China Rostelecom NHK Qualifying GPF
river 241 28 19 28 34 32 37 42 21
Legacy and Hope 230 31 23 31 25 31 32 40 17
sallycinnamon 228 32 22 28 23 29 31 46 17
airi 226 23 24 30 32 33 25 42 17
Old Cat Lady 221 22 21 32 23 32 31 44 16
LadyLou 214 31 20 30 25 22 27 44 15
Paskud 209 23 23 23 29 33 25 34 19
mercedes 190 25 21 30 24 23 24 34 9
TeaFrida 190 18 25 22 23 21 24 44 13
Louitunes 186 22 23 17 20 23 30 36 15
ralucutzagy 151   22 27 26 32 31   13
Sukigirl 105       31 33 27   14
Sayu93 102       24 26 30   22
Figure_Frenzy 91       22 26 29   14

 

Overall Averages:

  Ave Skate America Skate Canada IdF Cup of China Rostelecom NHK GPF
river 28.43 28 19 28 34 32 37 21
Legacy and Hope 27.14 31 23 31 25 31 32 17
airi 26.29 23 24 30 32 33 25 17
Sukigirl 26.25       31 33 27 14
sallycinnamon 26.00 32 22 28 23 29 31 17
Sayu93 25.50       24 26 30 22
Old Cat Lady 25.29 22 21 32 23 32 31 16
ralucutzagy 25.17   22 27 26 32 31 13
Paskud 25.00 23 23 23 29 33 25 19
LadyLou 24.29 31 20 30 25 22 27 15
Figure_Frenzy 22.75       22 26 29 14
mercedes 22.29 25 21 30 24 23 24 9
Louitunes 21.43 22 23 17 20 23 30 15
TeaFrida 20.86 18 25 22 23 21 24 13


Congrats to the medalists! :balloons-smiley:

 

Let me know if you have any suggestions for next time.  Maybe we'll play again for 4cc, Europeans, and worlds. 

 

 

@river @Legacy and Hope @airi @Sukigirl @sallycinnamon @Sayu93 @ralucutzagy @Paskud @LadyLou @Figure_Frenzy @mercedes @Louitunes @TeaFrida

At least I'm medalist at GPF.:Poohgaveup:

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